SWEDISH MFA STATE SECRETARY ON TURKEY, BOSNIA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000353 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2019 TAGS: PREL SW SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA STATE SECRETARY ON TURKEY, BOSNIA, IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN REF: A. STOCKHOLM 287 ¶B. STOCKHOLM 266 ¶C. STOCKHOLM 16 AND PREVIOUS STOCKHOLM 00000353 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: A/DCM Robert Hilton for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: State Secretary Frank Belfrage met with Charge June 5 to discuss Turkey, Bosnia, Iran, and Afghanistan. --On Turkey, he welcomed U.S.-Swedish convergence of views and observed that the German position on Turkish EU membership is shifting. --He urged strong U.S. pressure on the Greek Cypriots and Greece itself in an effort to achieve an &autumn breakthrough8 on Cyprus. --On Bosnia, Belfrage said Washington and Stockholm agree on the end goal but not necessarily on "the journey." Sweden wants to see a "different pace" for the transition from the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to the EU Special Representative (EUSR). --A "civilian surge" is important for Afghanistan, Belfrage stated, and Sweden would appreciate information on U.S. efforts to negotiate a "contract" for good governance with President Karzai. --On Iran, Belfrage stated that the international community should "get worried" if there are no signs of Iranian willingness to engage by the time of the September UN General Assembly. Comment: We assess that the Swedish position on Iran is slowly changing, away from steadfast opposition to autonomous EU sanctions and moving toward a willingness to review and "pre-designate" entities of concern for possible listing in the autumn if Tehran still refuses to engage on the nuclear issue. USG interlocutors should continue to press the Swedes on this issue. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Warning that the European Parliament elections made the topic of Turkish accession to the EU a "very sensitive" topic in Europe, Belfrage observed that public discussion is muted. He commented that Germany's position on Turkish EU membership is shifting. While Chancellor Merkel was "never warm" to the idea, she moved farther away from it during the early weeks of campaigning for the European Parliament elections. Now, aware that she needs to also secure the Turkish vote, Belfrage senses that she is moving back to "less visible" opposition in the run up to the autumn general elections in Germany. In any case, Belfrage stressed, Sweden has been and will continue to be very active in support of Turkish EU membership. Belfrage notes that Turkish MFA Under Secretary Apakan recently visited Sweden, and that Turkish EU Minister Bagis also visited recently, flying back to Turkey in Foreign Minister Bildt,s plane. ¶3. (C) The real urgency now is a solution for Cyprus, Belfrage continued, which should trigger new momentum in the accession negotiations. Belfrage urged the United States to do more to urge the Greek Cypriots, who "have no real incentives" to reach accommodation with the Turkish Cypriots. Greece is also "active in the shadows" and would need to feel some U.S. pressure. Separately, Turkey desk officer Peder Spangberg noted that is it difficult for one EU Member State to pressure another, so U.S. assistance with Athens and Nicosia would be helpful. In any case, Sweden is hoping for an "autumn breakthrough" on Cyprus, Belfrage said. ¶4. (C) On Bosnia, Belfrage said that Washington and Stockholm appear to agree on the end goals but "not necessarily on the journey and methods." Sweden believes that continued close monitoring of the "5 2" conditions is necessary, but that a faster rhythm and different sequence are now called for with respect to the transition from OHR to EUSR. He repeated FM Bildt,s view that the three communities in Bosnia need to start making decisions on their own. "As long as they feel they are a colony, they won't do any of the hard work themselves," he stated. Belfrage opined that the prospects of EU accession are perhaps the only significant carrot for all parties in Bosnia and that the offer of EU membership "must be credible." Therefore, movement towards an EUSR as soon as possible is warranted. Belfrage agreed that FM Bildt, who "knows every valley and sub-mayor in Bosnia," acts as the MFA,s Bosnia desk officer. ¶5. (C) On Iran, Belfrage noted Sweden's frustration that High Rep Solana has not been able to get any meetings. If there STOCKHOLM 00000353 002.2 OF 002 are no signs that Iranian officials are willing to engage meaningfully on the nuclear file by the time of the UN General Assembly in September, "then we should all get worried, get concerned." President Obama,s outreach is "the only show in town," he continued, adding that during his recent trip to Moscow he felt that the Russians were also "taking that line." Belfrage repeated again that Sweden would be "worried" if there is no response to U.S. initiatives by September. ¶6. (C) On Afghanistan, Sweden shares the view that a "civilian surge" is needed. Sweden will work hard within the EU "and within our modest means" to support election monitoring and foreign assistance programs. On the EUPOL mission, Belfrage expressed dismay that previous mission leaders had not accomplished as much as had been hoped, but expressed optimism in the new Danish lead, Kai Vittrup. He noted that the EUPOL mission currently has some 250 officers and that it may be fully staffed by late summer. Belfrage asked for information about the content of U.S.-Afghan dialogue, and especially about information that the United States has been working on a "contract" for good governance with President Karzai, possibly to include the appointment of a prime minister or chief of staff to run the bureaucracy in advance of the election. A focus on good governance must be a major part of the civilian surge, Belfrage emphasized. ¶7. (C) Comment: Belfrage's comments on Iran are the second time in a month that we have heard intimations of a changing policy (Ref A),away from steadfast opposition to autonomous EU sanctions and moving toward a willingness to review and "pre-designate" entities of concern for possible listing in the autumn if Tehran still refuses to engage on the nuclear issue. USG interlocutors should encourage Sweden to continue moving in this direction. In addition, Swedish officials should be urged to cooperate more on U.S. requests that Sweden block shipments and transactions that support Iran's nuclear and missile programs (Ref C). ¶8. (C) Comment continued: On Afghanistan, Sweden's means are not that modest. It could -- and should -- do more. Sweden currently has three officers in EUPOL and three more in training, but the head of the joint MoD/MFA-run training academy tells us that several dozen more Swedish policemen want to go to Afghanistan. We recommend USG interlocutors stress to Swedish counterparts the importance of Sweden doing more on EUPOL quickly, and then using its EU Presidency to lead EU-wide efforts to fully staff EUPOL. SILVERMAN