SWEDEN ON MAY 18-19 "SUPER GAERC"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000287

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM IS GR GG RU EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN ON MAY 18-19 "SUPER GAERC"

Classified By: Pol Couns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Summary: On May 8, poloff met with MFA Deputy EU
Correspondent Jonas Wendel to discuss the GAERC agenda for
May 18-19. Wendel said it will be a "Super GAERC," to
include a special meeting between the Foreign and Defense
Ministers. The overall agenda would therefore be brief.
Highlights of the agenda should include: preparing the EU to
expand sanctions on Iran after September; the EU-Russia
summit on May 21-22 and the Medvedev security initiative;
upgrading Moldova's association agreement; illegal migration
to Greece; and improving the mandate of the United Nations
Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG). The Middle East peace
process was removed from the agenda because Prime Minister
Netanyahu's visit to Washington is concurrent with the GAERC.
The joint Foreign-Defense Ministerial meeting plans to
discuss EU missions Althea, in Bosnia, and Atalanta, off the
coast of Somalia. End Summary.

Expanding Sanctions on Iran
--------------


2. (C) Wendel said a "sense of urgency is building up" for
the EU--especially among the British, Germans and Swedes--to
prepare actions "to have in our pocket" should the Iranians
continue to respond negatively to Western overtures. The EU
agrees that the September UNGA meeting should be a deadline
for any favorable Iranian response. Should such not occur,
the EU (and U.S.) could then recruit Russian and Chinese
support for expanding the sanctions regime on the margins of
the UNGA. Nonetheless, the Swedes are concerned that
planning too much in advance for a negative outcome will
attract subsequent criticism from Russia and China that the
EU planned for failure.


3. (C) Wendel said the French and British pressured the
Czechs to issue conclusions on Iran at the last GAERC. These
conclusions, in FM Bildt's opinion, were "toothless, if not
irrelevant" and should have been made as an official
statement, nothing more. At the request of the British,
there will be an informal "EU8" (France, Germany, Britain,
Italy, Poland, Spain, Czech Republic and Sweden) on the
sidelines of the May GAERC. The Swedes want the British to
"be more transparent" in their analysis of Iranian violations
of sanctions, according to Wendel.

EU-Russia Summit May 21-22
--------------


4. (C) The EU is preparing points for its summit with Russia
this May in Siberia, Wendel said. At the GAERC, the
Commission will present a paper on key outstanding issues,
including how to proceed with the EU's "new agreement" with
Russia, the economic crisis, and the Medvedev security
initiative. Sweden wants the new agreement to be broad and
include technical, trade and economic issues. The Russians,
according to Wendel, originally were reluctant to have a
broad agreement, but are now more open. The Swedes want the
OSCE to handle the Russian security proposals, not the EU.
The Czechs were supportive of the EU handling it, but backed
away due to forceful opposition within the EU. Meanwhile,
the Council and Commission will start a draft analysis of how
to respond to Moscow.

Moldova: Human Rights and Romania
--------------


5. (C) The External Relations session will have a follow-up
discussion on alleged human rights violations by Moldovan
security forces. The session will also discuss upgrading the
association agreement; this will prove difficult due to
bilateral conflicts between Romania and Moldova. Romania
expects, according to Wendel, the EU's "unconditional
support" for its position on Moldova. Many EU countries are
reluctant to offer such to one of its own.

Greece: Illegal Migration
--------------


6. (SBU) The Greeks placed illegal migration on the agenda
and many EU members, including Sweden, find that
"unbelievable" because Greece is one of the main violators of
EU immigration and asylum policies. FM Bildt believes the
topic belongs to the Justice and Home Affairs track, not on
the external affairs agenda.

Georgia UNOMIG Mandate
--------------


7. (SBU) UNOMIG's mandate in Georgia expires in June and the
Swedes want a new strategy implemented as the current one has
had "little effect." Establishing a new mandate is
especially important, Wendel said, as the OSCE's mission to

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Georgia will soon expire.

Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting
--------------


8. (C) The two topics at the joint Foreign and Defense
Ministers' meeting will be the EU's Althea and Atalanta
missions. Wendel said the Swedes are concerned that the
current EU Special Representative--Valentin Inzko--may not be
the right person to take over once the Office of the High
Representative (OHR) is dismantled. The discussion on
Atalanta will be on the form of its mandate: should it be to
protect UN humanitarian deliveries, as Sweden would like, or
be cast wider to protect EU fishing fleets, as Spain would
like to see. Council conclusions on both are expected,
Wendel said. The Ministers of Defense will discuss the
military aspects of the two operations prior to this joint
session.

General Affairs Council
--------------


9. (SBU) The main agenda item will be the introduction of the
annotated agenda for the European Council in June. There
will not be a declaration on the agenda, but it will likely
include the announcement of the "new" President of the EU
Commission (likely Barroso, Wendel opined) and discussion of
the Irish referendum.
SILVERMAN