SWEDEN ON MAY 18-19 "SUPER GAERC"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000287 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV BM IS GR GG RU EUN SW SUBJECT: SWEDEN ON MAY 18-19 "SUPER GAERC" Classified By: Pol Couns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On May 8, poloff met with MFA Deputy EU Correspondent Jonas Wendel to discuss the GAERC agenda for May 18-19. Wendel said it will be a "Super GAERC," to include a special meeting between the Foreign and Defense Ministers. The overall agenda would therefore be brief. Highlights of the agenda should include: preparing the EU to expand sanctions on Iran after September; the EU-Russia summit on May 21-22 and the Medvedev security initiative; upgrading Moldova's association agreement; illegal migration to Greece; and improving the mandate of the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG). The Middle East peace process was removed from the agenda because Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington is concurrent with the GAERC. The joint Foreign-Defense Ministerial meeting plans to discuss EU missions Althea, in Bosnia, and Atalanta, off the coast of Somalia. End Summary. Expanding Sanctions on Iran -------------- ¶2. (C) Wendel said a "sense of urgency is building up" for the EU--especially among the British, Germans and Swedes--to prepare actions "to have in our pocket" should the Iranians continue to respond negatively to Western overtures. The EU agrees that the September UNGA meeting should be a deadline for any favorable Iranian response. Should such not occur, the EU (and U.S.) could then recruit Russian and Chinese support for expanding the sanctions regime on the margins of the UNGA. Nonetheless, the Swedes are concerned that planning too much in advance for a negative outcome will attract subsequent criticism from Russia and China that the EU planned for failure. ¶3. (C) Wendel said the French and British pressured the Czechs to issue conclusions on Iran at the last GAERC. These conclusions, in FM Bildt's opinion, were "toothless, if not irrelevant" and should have been made as an official statement, nothing more. At the request of the British, there will be an informal "EU8" (France, Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, Czech Republic and Sweden) on the sidelines of the May GAERC. The Swedes want the British to "be more transparent" in their analysis of Iranian violations of sanctions, according to Wendel. EU-Russia Summit May 21-22 -------------- ¶4. (C) The EU is preparing points for its summit with Russia this May in Siberia, Wendel said. At the GAERC, the Commission will present a paper on key outstanding issues, including how to proceed with the EU's "new agreement" with Russia, the economic crisis, and the Medvedev security initiative. Sweden wants the new agreement to be broad and include technical, trade and economic issues. The Russians, according to Wendel, originally were reluctant to have a broad agreement, but are now more open. The Swedes want the OSCE to handle the Russian security proposals, not the EU. The Czechs were supportive of the EU handling it, but backed away due to forceful opposition within the EU. Meanwhile, the Council and Commission will start a draft analysis of how to respond to Moscow. Moldova: Human Rights and Romania -------------- ¶5. (C) The External Relations session will have a follow-up discussion on alleged human rights violations by Moldovan security forces. The session will also discuss upgrading the association agreement; this will prove difficult due to bilateral conflicts between Romania and Moldova. Romania expects, according to Wendel, the EU's "unconditional support" for its position on Moldova. Many EU countries are reluctant to offer such to one of its own. Greece: Illegal Migration -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Greeks placed illegal migration on the agenda and many EU members, including Sweden, find that "unbelievable" because Greece is one of the main violators of EU immigration and asylum policies. FM Bildt believes the topic belongs to the Justice and Home Affairs track, not on the external affairs agenda. Georgia UNOMIG Mandate -------------- ¶7. (SBU) UNOMIG's mandate in Georgia expires in June and the Swedes want a new strategy implemented as the current one has had "little effect." Establishing a new mandate is especially important, Wendel said, as the OSCE's mission to STOCKHOLM 00000287 002 OF 002 Georgia will soon expire. Joint Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting -------------- ¶8. (C) The two topics at the joint Foreign and Defense Ministers' meeting will be the EU's Althea and Atalanta missions. Wendel said the Swedes are concerned that the current EU Special Representative--Valentin Inzko--may not be the right person to take over once the Office of the High Representative (OHR) is dismantled. The discussion on Atalanta will be on the form of its mandate: should it be to protect UN humanitarian deliveries, as Sweden would like, or be cast wider to protect EU fishing fleets, as Spain would like to see. Council conclusions on both are expected, Wendel said. The Ministers of Defense will discuss the military aspects of the two operations prior to this joint session. General Affairs Council -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The main agenda item will be the introduction of the annotated agenda for the European Council in June. There will not be a declaration on the agenda, but it will likely include the announcement of the "new" President of the EU Commission (likely Barroso, Wendel opined) and discussion of the Irish referendum. SILVERMAN