SWEDISH MFA CLAIMS EU FOREIGN MINISTERS TO APPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000211 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019 TAGS: PREL EU SY SW SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA CLAIMS EU FOREIGN MINISTERS TO APPROVE EU-SYRIA ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT REF: STOCKHOLM 172 Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: An EU-Syria Association Agreement will be approved by EU foreign ministers meeting informally in the "Gymnich" format March 27-28, according to Sweden's senior MFA officials dealing with EU matters. Discussion at the Prague meeting is expected to be "operational" on the topic, leading to agreement that is "everything but official." Momentum grew after the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Beirut and Damascus last month. On Iran, the EU3 are expected to brief foreign ministers on the dates the USG will announce the results of its Iran policy review; our contacts claim that British sources informed them such would occur April 7-8. Sweden wants close cooperation on Iran so it can do its best to play along during its EU Presidency, July-December 2009. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Sweden,s EU correspondent Magnus Scholdtz and deputy correspondent Jonas Wendel told Pol Counselor on March 26 that momentum for an EU-Syria Association Agreement is "very strong, perhaps insurmountable." Discussion at the March 27-28 Gymnich is "expected to be operational on this topic," Scholdtz said, adding that while no formal decision would be taken, the decision would be "everything but official." Asked about earlier reports indicating movement on the agreement was not likely now (reftel),Scholdtz said that Syria and Lebanon opened embassies in each other's capitals mid-March, removing one of the last objections for EU Member States. The French are pushing very hard to sign an agreement as soon as possible, Scholdtz asserted, and "even the British are on board" because the agreement text includes a paragraph on non-proliferation. ¶3. (C) Scholdtz acknowledged USG concerns over Syrian efforts to develop a clandestine nuclear capability, but said that Sweden and other EU Member States still have doubts about the extent of Syrian-North Korean nuclear cooperation. He stated that there might still be some Member State opposition to an association agreement related to this issue or others, but that he had not seen any reporting to that effect. Rather, most Member States feel it is now time for the EU to "echo" U.S. efforts to open up relations with Damascus. The EU anticipates that its action would have the effect of making Iran even more isolated, Wendel added. ¶4. (C) Continuing on Iran, Scholdtz said that Member States will listen carefully to presentations by the EU3 at the Gymnich on the timetable for the roll out of the results of the USG's Iran policy review, expected to occur "in early April." Sweden feels it is important to bring China and Russia into the discussion on further sanctions in order to be credible to Tehran. But if a package of new carrots, plus Russian and Chinese pressure, does not bring about a cessation of enrichment, then Sweden would support discussions within the EU on what to do next ) probably sanctions, said Scholdtz. ¶5. (C) Scholdtz said that Sweden's senior officials are very curious about Washington's new Iran policy, saying that he understood there would be "coordination" in London in April among the EU3, Spain, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic and Sweden. As incoming EU president, Sweden is very interested in getting clear information about U.S. thinking "so that we can play along as best we can." Wendel, one of the MFA's Iran experts, added that he thought President Obama's speech had been extremely effective because it was "received directly by the Iranian people" and the politicians had no chance to muddy the message. ¶6. (C) Comment: We believe the rush to this informal decision on the EU-Syria Association Agreement is partly a reaction to last month's senior USG visit to Damascus and a European desire to not be left behind. SILVERMAN