SWEDEN ON INTEGRATING IRAQ INTO REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000178 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2019 TAGS: PREL PINR IZ SW SUBJECT: SWEDEN ON INTEGRATING IRAQ INTO REGION REF: STATE 21447 Classified By: CDA Robert J. Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Sweden thinks Iraq is integrating well into the broader Middle East and that the Expanded Neighbors Process is a good vehicle. Sweden supports the International Compact with Iraq but worries that it would be hard to attract ministers to Baghdad this summer because of security concerns; a senior officials meeting might be a better first step. Internal integration is suffering as Arab-Kurd tensions escalate. Sweden hopes to open its embassy by May and is working on an assistance program that emphasizes Iraqi ownership and involvement. The MFA is working on a pilot project to match Swedish companies with Iraqi immigrants who would be willing to represent them in Baghdad. End Summary. Regional Integration Good -------------- ¶2. (C) Sweden thinks Iraq is integrating well into the broader Middle East, MFA State Secretary Frank Belfrage told CDA March 13. Swedish diplomats report Iraq is mending fences with Turkey and is not having "too much trouble" with Iran right now. Belfrage and FM Carl Bildt both got the impression from recent trips to the Middle East that the Saudis are also "warming up." Sweden thinks President Obama's clear articulation of Iraq policy has been very important for letting all players have a "sense of the direction" things are developing, Belfrage concluded. Expanded Neighbors Yes, but Too Early for ICI Ministerial -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) On multilateral mechanisms, Middle East experts at the MFA think the Expanded Neighbors Process may be the most important -- "not so much for substance, but for the symbolism of all the parties meeting together," according to Dag Juhlin-Dannfelt, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa Unit. Sweden will continue to support the International Compact with Iraq bilaterally and within the EU, but is not optimistic that Iraq will be able to attract minister-level attendees to Baghdad this summer because of security concerns, Dannfelt told us in a March 12 meeting. He suggested that a senior officials meeting might be easier to achieve, at least as a first step. It would be important for the UN and Iraq to avoid the "real failure" of inviting ministers and not having them show up, he added. Concern over Arab Kurd Tensions -------------- ¶4. (C) The greater problem involved internal integration and Kurdish-Arab relations, Belfrage and Dannfelt said. As the security environment improves and all parties focus more on political arrangements, the Kurds are starting to ask "where they belong" in modern Iraq, Belfrage noted. Shia-Sunni friction has been replaced by Arab-Kurd friction, Dannfelt said, adding that Sweden was concerned that national reconciliation was not being reached between North and South. Swedish Embassy to Open by May -------------- ¶5. (C) Sweden hopes to move staff into its embassy by the end of May and to have FM Bildt visit for a ribbon-cutting ceremony in June, Dannfelt reported. Plans call for six diplomats posted to Baghdad, plus two officials from the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) and two more from the Swedish Trade Council. Other Nordics, including Norway and Finland, have asked for office space at the Swedish mission, he added. Swedish Aid to Be Less "Condescending"? -------------- ¶6. (C) Dannfelt stated that SIDA has been asked to be a bit less "condescending" and spend more time listening to the Iraqis to determine what they need, with a focus on "Iraqi ownership" of SIDA projects. On trade, the MFA is working on a business promotion project that would make use of the expertise in the Iraqi diaspora in Sweden, matching Swedish companies with those who have the language and cultural skills needed to be good representatives in Iraq. If there is sufficient interest in the commercial sector here, then the project would be handed over to the Trade Council to manage, Dannfelt said. SILVERMAN