SWEDEN'S EU CORRESPONDENTS ON IRAN SANCTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000112 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2019 TAGS: PREL ENVT EU BO TU SW SUBJECT: SWEDEN'S EU CORRESPONDENTS ON IRAN SANCTIONS, BELARUS, TURKEY AND MORE Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). ¶1. (C) Summary and Action Request: In several meetings this month, the MFA EU Correspondent's Office has offered us their views on Iran sanctions, Belarus, Turkey's EU accession, and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. On Iran, Sweden continues to raise concerns that "blanket" trade sanctions will not work, that new sanctions now will only increase the chance of Ahmedinijad's re-election, and that Sweden needs to understand the evidence behind U.S. designations of Iranian entities. Action Request: Given Sweden's upcoming EU Presidency in the second half of the year, we urge that U.S. experts visit Stockholm to engage the Swedes in dialogue on Iran sanctions. End Summary and Action Request. ¶2. (C) Swedish MFA EU Correspondent Magnus Scholdtz, and Deputy Correspondents Christine Bengtsson and Jonas Wendel, recently told us that Sweden wants to engage in a closer dialogue with the Embassy and the USG to better understand the Obama Administration's policy goals and strategies. Scholdtz said we should take advantage of the pro-American atmosphere in Sweden to deepen coordination on issues of mutual concern. Iran Sanctions -------------- -- Scholdtz reported that Swedish FM Bildt remains skeptical about using trade restrictions as sanctions. Wendel added that Bildt believes imposing "blanket" economic sanctions on Iran will not give either Sweden or the EU any leverage but instead send Iran to other suppliers, such as China. In addition, the imposition of new sanctions now would only increase the chance that Iranian hard-liners will rally around President Ahmedinijad, increasing the likelihood of his re-election this June. Poloff responded that "blanket" sanctions are not part of the discussion, that proposed sanctions target entities suspected of facilitating Iran's acquisition of WMD and missile technology, and that it would be important to support EU3 efforts to develop an enhanced set of both sticks and carrots. Wendel responded that Sweden is not convinced that entities designated under U.S. domestic legislation are really involved in "problematic transactions" and that it would be very useful to have expanded dialogue between U.S. and Swedish experts on this topic. EU Sanctions on Belarus -------------- 
-- The EU will meet in March or April to review its sanctions policy on Belarus, according to Scholdtz. The outcome of the review will determine if President Lukashenko will participate in the first EU Eastern Partnership Summit on May ¶7. Additionally, Scholdtz reported that in late January the EU Political Directors discussed the likelihood that Belarus' parliament will vote in the spring to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the likelihood that President Lukashenko would feel compelled to give in to Russian pressure on the issue. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference -------------- -- The U.S. and Sweden need to get on the same track on environmental policy sooner rather than later, Scholdtz urged. As EU president, Sweden will lead numerous bilateral summits, including with China, India and Brazil. Sweden will be in a unique opportunity to press these countries on environmental issues prior to the December Conference of the Parties (COP 15) meeting in Copenhagen. If the EU and U.S. can agree quickly on a negotiating strategy, we will jointly be in a stronger position when approaching China, India and Brazil. Turkey -------------- -- Scholdtz asked for U.S. help in urging key EU states to support Turkey's EU accession. He said the Ankara Protocol will be reviewed this year and Turkey's current lack of progress will harm its accession prospects. Britain is tiring, while Germany, Holland and Belgium's support for Turkey has significantly waned, Scholdtz said. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis, Turkish officials are behaving more boldly on the assumption that Turkey's indispensable role as a transit country for Central Asian oil and gas will allow the same latitude in talks with the EU. Scholdtz said Turkish officials must realize that Europe's energy needs will not affect Turkey's accession criteria. Free Trade -------------- STOCKHOLM 00000112 002 OF 002 -- Scholdtz said Sweden is one of the strongest advocates of free trade in the EU and is concerned over isolationist signals from the U.S. and some EU member states during the ongoing financial crisis. He stressed Sweden's commitment to stand firm against protectionist tendencies. Russia -------------- -- Wendel said the EU and U.S. need to agree upon a common approach towards Russian President Medvedev's European Security Treaty proposal. He said Sweden assesses that Russia wants to use the proposal to divide the EU and U.S. ¶3. (C) Comment and Action Request: Our open dialogue with the EU Corespondent's Office bodes well for Sweden's upcoming EU presidency. We will continue to engage the Swedes on Iran, and to that end would welcome USG visitors here who could address Swedish concerns about the effectiveness of sanctions. SILVERMAN