(C/NF) KUDOS FOR REPORTING ON IRISH LISBON

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 099791 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV EI SUBJECT: (C/NF) KUDOS FOR REPORTING ON IRISH LISBON TREATY REFERENDUM (C-RE9-02014) REF: 09 DUBLIN 00362 Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS APPRECIATED REFTEL ON THE PLAYERS AND FACTORS AFFECTING POTENTIAL RATIFICATION OF THE LISBON TREATY IN THE PLANNED OCTOBER 2009 REFERENDUM. EMBASSY INSIGHTS WERE VERY USEFUL, ESPECIALLY AS THEY PROVIDED MORE CLARITY ABOUT FLUCTUATING POLL NUMBERS, THE CURRENT IRISH GOVERNMENT'S UNPOPULARITY, AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE TREATY'S PASSAGE OR FAILURE FOR THE EU. ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTING ON THIS SUBJECT, ESPECIALLY OBSERVATIONS OR ANECDOTAL VIEWS ABOUT THE REFERENDUM, AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT. ¶A. (C/NF) HOW ARE THE "YES" AND "NO" CAMPAIGNS ATTEMPTING TO SWAY UNDECIDED VOTERS, AND HOW OPTIMISTIC IS EITHER CAMP CONCERNING THEIR CHANCES FOR SUCCESS? ¶B. (C/NF) DOES POST BELIEVE THE "NO" CAMPAIGN'S ARGUMENT THAT REJECTING THE TREATY IS A WAY TO EXPRESS DISPLEASURE WITH COWEN'S GOVERNMENT, AND HAVE IRISH OFFICIALS BEEN APPROACHED BY EU OFFICIALS IN BRUSSELS OR OTHER PROMIENNT EUROPEAN LEADERS OR DIPLOMATS WITH CONCERNS OR WORRIES ABOUT THE OUTCOME OF THE REFERENDUM? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-02014 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON