(U) ANGOLA: PROPOSED REVISIONS TO ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 096677 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2034 TAGS: PINR AO SUBJECT: (U) ANGOLA: PROPOSED REVISIONS TO ELECTORAL SYSTEM (C-AL9-01981) Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE INTERESTED IN THE ONGOING CONSTITUTIONAL TALKS TAKING PLACE IN LUANDA, PARTICULARLY REGARDING IF AND WHEN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD. PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS' RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE WOULD PREFER INDIRECT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THROUGH A PARTY-LIST SYSTEM, AKIN TO THAT OF SOUTH AFRICA, SUGGESTS THAT DIRECT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS MAY NO LONGER BE ON THE AGENDA, DESPITE EXPECTATIONS THAT THEY WOULD BE HELD WITHIN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE ANY FURTHER INSIGHTS EMBASSY MIGHT BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ON THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS. THANK YOU. ¶B. (U) MIGHT POPULAR MOVEMENT FOR THE LIBERATION OF ANGOLA (MPLA) MEMBERS CHALLENGE PRESIDENT DOS SANTOS' CALL FOR INDIRECT ELECTIONS AND, IF SO, WHAT WOULD BE THEIR MOST EFFECTIVE VENUE? ¶C. (U) HOW SIGNIFICANT IS IT THAT THE NATIONAL UNION FOR THE TOTAL INDEPENDENCE OF ANGOLA (UNITA) HAS RECENTLY CHARGED THE PRESIDENT AND THE RULING PARTY WITH UNDEMOCRATIC BEHAVIOR AND AS HAVING INTEREST IN PERPETUATING A "MONARCHY"? DOES THIS SIGNAL A KEY CHANGE IN THE PARTY'S WILLINGNESS TO WORK WITH THE MPLA TO CRAFT A NEW CONSTITUTION? ¶D. (U) HOW EXACTLY WOULD DOS SANTOS' FAVORED ELECTORAL SYSTEM WORK, AND HOW DOES IT RESEMBLE AND DIFFER FROM THE SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTORAL SYSTEM? ¶E. (U) TO WHAT EXTENT HAS THE PRESS BEEN FREE TO REPORT ON THE OPPOSITION'S POSITIONS VIS-A-VIS THIS CONTROVERSY? ¶F. (U) WILL THIS SYSTEM DISADVANTAGE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES AND, IF SO, HOW MIGHT UNITA'S CHIVUKUVUKA BE AFFECTED? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL9-01981 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON