(SBU) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON ARMENIAN

S E C R E T STATE 088237 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL AM SUBJECT: (SBU) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSIAN AND OTHER KEY LEADERS (C-RE9-01645) Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THE ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT AND WOULD APPRECIATE ANY FURTHER INFORMATION POST CAN PROVIDE ON PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSIAN AND KEY ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, POLICIES, RELATIONSHIPS, AND LEADERSHIP TRAITS. THE FOLLOWING EXTENSIVE LIST OF TOPICS AND QUESTIONS IS ILLUSTRATIVE OF THE KINDS OF INFORMATION THAT WE WOULD WELCOME OVER THE MONTHS TO COME, TIME AND RESOURCES PERMITTING. ¶A. (C) HOW DOES POST ASSESS THE STABILITY OF PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S ADMINISTRATION GIVEN THE CONTROVERSIAL CIRCUMSTANCES SURROUNDING HIS ENGAGEMENT WITH TURKEY AND NK NEGOTIATIONS? WHAT STEPS DOES HE PLAN NEXT IN ORDER TO RETAIN HIS POSITION AND HIS POLITICAL LEGITIMACY? HOW DOES SARGSIAN ASSESS THE REGIME'S VIABILITY? ¶B. (C) WHAT ADVICE HAS SARGSIAN RECEIVED AND HOW IS HE IMPLEMENTING IT REGARDING HIS POLITICAL IMAGE AND PUBLIC OUTREACH SINCE BECOMING PRESIDENT? WHAT STEPS HAS SARGSIAN TAKEN, IF ANY, TO LEARN ENGLISH? ¶C. (C) WHAT ARE PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S PLANS AND INTENTIONS FOR THE ONGOING TALKS WITH TURKEY? WHO IS ADVISING SARGSIAN ON TURKEY? IN WHAT WAYS IS THE PUBLIC SHOWING SUPPORT OF SARGSIAN ON THIS ISSUE? HOW LONG MIGHT SARGSIAN CONTINUE TO PUBLICLY SUPPORT NEGOTIATIONS WITH TURKEY IN THE ABSENCE OF REAL PROGRESS IN THE TALKS? ¶D. (C) HOW DO TOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS VIEW THE MINSK GROUP NEGOTIATIONS' EFFECTIVENESS? IF THE GOVERNMENT OF ARMENIA VIEWS THEM AS HAVING EXCEEDED THEIR UTILITY, WHAT ALTERNATIVES DO GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS SEE FOR RESOLVING THE CONFLICT? ¶E. (C) WHAT IS PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S RELATIONSHIP WITH ARMENIAN DIASPORAS IN THE US AND EUROPE? IS HE RECEPTIVE TO DIASPORA OPINION OR DOES HE VIEW THEM AS HINDERING HIS FOREIGN POLICY? WHAT IS SARGSIAN'S APPROACH TO INTERACTING WITH EUROPEANS AND WITH THE UNITED STATES? ¶F. (C) WHO ARE THE FIVE PEOPLE, TO INCLUDE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, FAMILY MEMBERS, OR FRIENDS, WHOM PRESIDENT SARGSIAN TRUSTS MOST? PLEASE PROVIDE EXAMPLES OF WAYS IN WHICH HE LISTENS TO THEM AND/OR FOLLOWS THEIR ADVICE. ¶G. (C) HOW DOES PRESIDENT SARGSIAN MAINTAIN CONTROL OF HIS COALITION GOVERNMENT? WHAT IS HIS GOVERNANCE STYLE? IS HE DETAIL-FOCUSED OR A DELEGATOR? ¶H. (C) WHO ARE PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S TOP STRATEGY ADVISORS. WHAT COURSES OF ACTION ARE THEY URGING HIM TO PURSUE IN TERMS OF THE COUNTRY,S OVERALL DIRECTION? ¶I. (C) PLEASE CHARACTERIZE PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE HEAD OF THE PROSPEROUS ARMENIAN PARTY, GAGIK TSAROUKIAN? DOES SARGSIAN CONSIDER TSAROUKIAN A THREAT OR POLITICAL RIVAL? ¶J. (C) PLEASE CHARACTERIZE PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSIAN'S RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIAN LEADERS; ARE THEY DIPLOMATIC OR IDEOLOGICAL IN NATURE? WITH WHOM DOES HE HAVE THE CLOSEST RELATIONSHIPS? WHO ARE PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S MAIN BUSINESS CONTACTS IN RUSSIA, AND HOW DO THEY INFLUENCE HIS DECISIONS? ¶K. (C) PLEASE CHARACTERIZE PRIME MINISTER TIGRAN SARGSIAN'S RELATIONSHIP TO RUSSIAN LEADERS; ARE THEY DIPLOMATIC OR IDEOLOGICAL IN NATURE? WITH WHOM DOES HE HAVE THE CLOSEST RELATIONSHIPS? WHO ARE PRIME MINISTER SARGSIAN'S MAIN BUSINESS CONTACTS IN RUSSIA, AND HOW DO THEY INFLUENCE HIS DECISIONS? ¶L. (C) PLEASE CHARACTERIZE FOREIGN MINISTER EDUARD NALBANDIAN'S RELATIONSHIP TO RUSSIAN LEADERS; ARE THEY DIPLOMATIC OR IDEOLOGICAL IN NATURE? WITH WHOM DOES HE HAVE THE CLOSEST RELATIONSHIPS? WHO ARE SARGSIAN'S MAIN BUSINESS CONTACTS IN RUSSIA, AND HOW DO THEY INFLUENCE HIS DECISIONS? ¶M. (C) WHY WAS FOREIGN MINISTER EDUARD NALBANDIAN CHOSEN FOR HIS CURRENT POSITION, AND HOW DOES SARGSIAN VIEW HIS PERFORMANCE TO DATE IN RELATION TO THAT OF FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER VARTAN OSKANIAN? HOW DO OFFICIALS AT THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS VIEW NALBANDIAN? WHAT ARE NALBANDIAN'S OPINIONS OF HIS AZERBAIJANI COUNTERPARTS, SUCH AS FOREIGN MINISTER MAMMADYAROV? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-01645 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON