COORDINATING OUR AFGHAN ELECTIONS MESSAGING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 083031 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AF PREL PGOV KPAO SUBJECT: COORDINATING OUR AFGHAN ELECTIONS MESSAGING 1.(SBU) FOR THE CHIEF OF MISSION. This is an action request, see paragraph 7. 2.(SBU) President Obama has called the August 20 Afghan elections the most important event occurring in Afghanistan this year. 38 candidates will run for the Presidency and 3,196 candidates for the 420 seats in the 34 provincial councils. In our effort to support these Afghan-led elections and provide comprehensive strategic communication guidance to Missions around the world, Washington has devised an interagency approved strategy that summarizes key decision points, as well as messages and messengers for the forthcoming election and post-election periods. ¶3. (SBU) U.S. Government objectives for these elections are that (a) Afghan institutions lead and conduct secure, credible, and inclusive presidential and provincial council elections on August 20, 2009; (b) the people of Afghanistan understand their rights, support the elections and exercise their right to vote; (c) the U. S. and international partners, working through the United Nations and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF),actively strengthen the capacity of Afghan institutions and mechanisms for elections (This includes working toward a "level playing field" for all candidates.); and (d) the people of Afghanistan understand that the U.S. will remain impartial, neither opposing nor supporting any particular Afghan Presidential or Provincial Council candidate. ¶4. (SBU) All U.S. Government officials should: (a) avoid speculation about election security, credibility, inclusivity or viability of 1st / 2nd rounds; (b) avoid predicting a winner or impact/occurrence of fraud. In the event of severe security or political incidents, e.g. widespread civil unrest or death of a candidate, comments should focus on the obligation of the Afghan Government and its institutions to follow national laws, and U.S. government intent to help the Afghan government protect the people. ¶5. (SBU) The following mechanisms will coordinate messages. In Kabul, the U.S. Embassy-led communications working group will coordinate messaging and media contacts with U.S. Forces- Afghanistan, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Combined Security Transition Command- Afghanistan. It will feed into the Kabul Election Operations Center, which will be running 24/7 from August 19-22. The Afghan Government is coordinating security messaging, and the IEC will begin to coordinate election messages this week. ¶6. (SBU) The Washington-based coordinating body for the Afghan elections will be a task force located at the State Department's Operation Center. It will mirror the Kabul Operations Center, operating 24/7 from August 19-22, and longer if necessary. ¶7. (SBU) The two task forces will produce regular situation reports, including messaging guidance as necessary. For Kabul, Islamabad, Seoul, Tokyo, New Delhi, Doha, USEU, USNATO, NATEU Capitals, USUN, Amman, Sarajevo, Skopje, Bern, Bogota, Canberra, Wellington, Dubai, Riyadh, Doha, Manama, Muscat, Kuwait City, Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi, Kiev, Dushanbe, Tashkent, Bishkek, Astana, Ashgabat, Moscow, Beijing and Cairo: Posts are requested to identify points of contact to whom task force/messaging updates should be sent. Post should send names to S/SRAP Sajit Gandhi via email (gandhisx@state.gov) by Thursday August 13. Guidance will also be posted to https://www.intelink.gov/wiki/portal:afghanis tan_elections_2009. Posts can draw on both sources for their interactions with hosts. ¶8. (SBU) Messages will also be disseminated via normal White House and State press release channels and websites and a direct email distribution list to the international SRAP group. Talking points will also be pushed out through the State media hubs and infocentral. ¶9. (SBU) Our themes and messages will evolve over the course of the three broad phases. Phase 1 will take place between now and polling day on August 20; phase 2 from August 20 until a winner is announced; and phase 3 from the announcement of the final results until the inauguration. Where possible, we will use UNAMA's coordinated talking points for core messages. During the first phase messaging can largely be predicted and based around the core messages listed below. STATE 00083031 002 OF 003 ¶10. (SBU) During the second phase, the messages will vary according to the initial and final results. The international community (including Afghanistan's neighbors) in particular, will need to stand with one voice where possible. These messages, as they are developed, will be sent to the person Post identifies as its point of contact (see paragraph 7). ¶11. (SBU) During the third phase we will need to finalize our post-election planning with the new President and his government to set out a vision that takes Afghanistan forward for the next five years, and sets the context for international contributions. ¶12. (SBU) Posts are requested to draw from the following themes: Begin Talking Points: Key Messages: -- As President Obama said on June 16th, the Presidential and the 34 provincial council elections are the most important event in Afghanistan this year. We are seeing the development of institutions that the Afghan people use to represent their views. -- The United States is impartial: we do not support or oppose any particular candidates. -- We want to see elections that are credible, secure and inclusive, with a legitimate outcome that is accepted by the Afghan people and by the world. -- Elections are rarely perfect. We nonetheless expect every effort to be made to ensure the integrity of the voting process and minimization of fraud. --These elections are the first that have been organized by Afghan authorities since the 1970s. They are taking place in challenging circumstances: Afghanistan should be given credit for maintaining its commitment to holding elections in such conditions. -- We expect the new President, once inaugurated, to take immediate, decisive action to set out and deliver a reform agenda, including expansion of the security forces, tackling corruption through accountability and transparency mechanisms so Afghans can see where money is being spent, reintegration of former insurgents and working with its neighbors to promote stability and security. IF RAISED: Voter turnout: -- Over four and half million new voters have registered to vote in this year's elections, and interest will likely increase as Election Day draws near. That is 17 million people in total. -- Because the security situation we believe that there are some areas where people won't be able to vote. But we believe that the overwhelming majority of the population will be able to get out and make their choice of representatives. Fraud: -- Fraud is unacceptable and an insult to those Afghans who are working for a better future. -- We continue to encourage Afghan authorities to implement comprehensive anti-fraud measures to protect the integrity of the election process and ensure that the election results are credible. These measures are based on international best practices and are intended to prevent and detect attempted fraud. -- We anticipate around 7000 Afghan and 300-400 international observers will have a presence in all 34 provinces. They, along with representatives of the candidates, will play a crucial role in minimizing the opportunities for fraud and spotting it where it happens. -- We are also encouraging the Electoral Complaints Commission and Media Commission to continue to fully addressing complaints wherever they may arise. Security: -- Delivery of security will be vital in ensuring the elections can go ahead. We expect insurgents will attempt to intimidate voters and disrupt the process. The Afghan and international security forces are working closely together to deliver the best possible security on polling day. -- Operations in Helmand, for example, mean that over a hundred polling stations, that could not previously open, will now do so. Nationwide, we anticipate there will be more polling stations open than during the 2004 and 2005 elections. -- There will always be a small minority of people who attempt to subvert the right of the people to choose their own leaders. However we believe the many safeguards in place will protect the integrity of the elections. STATE 00083031 003 OF 003 -- ISAF's primary role during the elections is to support, assist, and partner with the Afghan National Security Forces, who have the primary responsibility for election security, to secure the elections. ISAF will also provide essential and urgent logistical support where necessary. Election Campaigning: -- We have so far seen an exciting campaign which we hope has been an informative political debate for the voters and will mobilize their participation on polling day. We have been encouraged by the quality of the campaign in light of the difficult circumstances. -- We are also pleased to see that some candidates have started to set out their vision for Afghanistan, if they are elected. The new President will face many challenges and will need to be ready to implement their plans, with the support of the international community. -- Many of the rallies are quite large up to 10,000, 15,000 people. Many of the candidates are touring the country and participating in radio and TV debates. This has increased Afghan interest in the elections. -- Women are also playing a greater role in these elections. Two women are running for President and 328 women are running as candidates in the Provincial Council elections. This is 81 more women running for provincial office than in 2005. End Talking Points. ¶13. (U) Minimize considered. CLINTON