(C) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON EVOLVING TURKISH AND IRAQI KURDISH POLITICAL RELATIONSHIPS (C-RE9-00967)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 076467

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2034
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL IZ TU
SUBJECT: (C) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON EVOLVING TURKISH AND IRAQI KURDISH POLITICAL RELATIONSHIPS (C-RE9-00967)

Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C).


1. (C) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ANKARA-ARBIL RELATIONSHIP WHICH COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON US INTERESTS IN 2009. ANALYSTS ARE INTERESTED IN DISCOVERING THE DRIVERS FOR THE IMPROVEMENT IN RELATIONS BETWEEN IRAQI KURDISH AND TURKISH LEADERS AND IDENTIFYING THE KEY PLAYERS AND EXTERNAL ACTORS WHO CAN INFLUENCE THE RELATIONSHIP AND ITS EVOLUTION, INCLUDING THE
KGK LEADERS AND IRAQI PRIME MINISTER NURI AL-MALIKI. THIS
INFORMATION WILL HELP ANALYSTS DETERMINE HOW THIS CHANGE IN RELATIONS WILL IMPACT US INTERESTS IN IRAQ AND THE REGION. ANALYSTS APPRECIATE ANY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION POSTS CAN PROVIDE, AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT. THANK YOU AND BEST FROM WASHINGTON.

(U) IRAQI KURDISH LEADERS

KRG PRESIDENT AND KDP LEADER, MASUD BARZANI KRG PRIME MINISTER AND KDP POLITBURO MEMBERS, NECHIRVAN BARZANI IRAQI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER, BARHAM SALIH IRAQI PRESIDENT AND PUK LEADER, JALAL TALABANI IRAQI FOREIGN MINISTER AND KDP MEMBERS, HOSHYAR ZEBARI KRG AND PUK INTEL CHIEF, KHASRO GUL MUHAMMAD, AKA DR. KHASRO KRG MINISTER OF INTERIOR AND KDP INTEL CHIEF, KARIM SINJARI KRG ADVISOR AND DANA GAS CORPORATION REPRESENTATIVE, HAMID JAFAR KRG MINISTER OF NATURAL RESOURCES, ASHTI HAWRAMI IRAQI MINISTER OF OIL, HUSAYN SHAHRISTANI

(U) TURKISH LEADERS

PRIME MINISTER, RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN PRESIDENT, ABDULLAH GUL AMBASSADOR DESIGNATE FOR IRAQ, MURAT OZCELIK DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF STATE, ALI BABACAN CHIEF OF DEFENSE, GEN. M. ILKER BASBUG
FOREIGN MINISTER, AHMET DAVUTOGLU LAND FORCES COMMANDERWILL BE NEXT CHIEF OF DEFENSE IN 2010,
GEN. S. ISIK KOSANER

(U) KGK LEADERS

SENIOR KGK LEADER, MURAT KARAYILAN, SENIOR KGK LEADER, CEMIL BAYIK


A. (C) WHICH TURKISH LEADERS PUSHED ANKARA TO ESTABLISH DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE KRG? WHAT WERE THEIR REASONS FOR DOING SO? WHICH OTHER LEADERS, IF ANY, ARE DRIVING POLICY CHANGES BETWEEN ANKARA AND THE KRG?


B. (C) WHY IS MASUD BARZANI NOW WILLING TO TALK TO ANKARA DIRECTLY? HAS HE BECOME MORE WILLING TO TAKE ACTION AGAINST THE KGK IN NORTHERN IRAQ, AND IF SO, WHY? WHAT SPECIFIC ACTIONS DO THE TURKS EXPECT HIM TAKE AGAINST THE KGK?


C. (C) WHY DID BARZANI REFUSE TO COME TO BAHGDAD TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT GUL IN MARCH? WHAT WAS GUL'S REACTION TO NOT MEETING WITH BARZANI?


D. (C) HOW BIG OF A ROLE HAS NECHIRVAN BARZANI PLAYED IN BUILDING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ARBIL AND ANKARA? DOES HE APPEAR TO FAVOR SOME TURKISH INTERLOCUTORS MORE THAN OTHERS (FOR EXAMPLE, MFA V. TNIO V. TGS)?


E. (C) HOW BIG OF A ROLE IS BAHRAM SALIH PLAYING IN
BUILDING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ARBIL AND ANKARA? IN WHAT WAYS IS SALIH UTILIZING HIS ECONOMIC EXPERTISE TO EXPAND TURKISH-KRG COOPERATION?


F. (C) HOW DO THE LEADERS LISTED ABOVE VIEW EACH OTHER? HOW CLOSE ARE TIES BETWEEN THEM? WHAT ARE THE AREAS OF STRONG DISAGREEMENT?


G. (C) HOW OFTEN DO LEADERS INTERACT UNOFFICIALLY? WHAT ISSUES, IF ANY, DO THEY PREFER TO DISCUSS DURING UNOFFICIAL MEETINGS?


H. (C) WHO ARE THE REGULAR INTERLOCUTORS IN ON-GOING
DISCUSSIONS BETWEEN ANKARA AND THE KRG? IF POSSIBLE, PLEASE CHARACTERIZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE INDIVIDUALS.


I. (C) WHAT SIGNS ARE THERE THAT TALKS ARE CREATING REAL PROGRESS? WHAT SIGNS ARE THERE THAT TALKS ARE ONLY OPENING

DIALOGUE?


J. (C) HOW COULD THE UPCOMING KRG ELECTION AFFECT THE
ANKARA-ARBIL RELATIONSHIP?


2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-00967 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF
REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS.
CLINTON