FRMR FINMIN DORE-GUINEA DECLINING BUT DORE STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 072095 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2019 TAGS: GV KDEM PGOV PHUM PINS PREL SUBJECT: FRMR FINMIN DORE-GUINEA DECLINING BUT DORE STILL HOPEFUL Classified By: PDAS Phillip Carter for reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On June 23, former Guinean Minister of Finance Ousmane Dore met with PDAS Phillip Carter to discuss recent developments in Guinea. Dore noted that conditions in Guinea have been deteriorating ever since Captain Dadis Camara, head of the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD)took power. However, Dore remained guardedly optimistic despite these problems. He was heartened by the refusal of representatives of Guinean civil society to stand up to Dadis and his belief that ECOWAS, greatly concerned by Dadis' erratic behavior would act to prevent disaster. End Summary. Dore: Dore Staying Out of Guinea for Now; Guinea Declining Since Coup (C) On June 23, former Guinean Minister of Finance Ousmane Dore met with PDAS Phillip Carter (and deskoff as notetaker) to discuss recent developments in Guinea. Dore told A/S that he is in the U.S. on a personal visit and that he decided to remain outside Guinea for six months or so to see how the situation develops. Dore noted that conditions in Guinea have been deteriorating ever since Captain Dadis Camara, head of the National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD) took power. Dore said that people's hopes have been dashed, venality is growing, corrupt Conte loyalists are working their way back into power, and the economy is deteriorating, the people have nothing,, he said, many Lebanese have fled or sent their families abroad, there is no will to hold elections, the military is causing rampant crime, and the government is harassing political parties and their leaders. Dadis, contrary to his earlier claims (and what he told Dore privately immediately after the December coup),is planning to run for president. Dore observed that these events have caused everyone to come around to your (the USG's) point of view,(regarding the junta). Awakening of Civil Society and ECOWAS Are Reasons for Optimism -------------- ¶3. (C) Dore remained guardedly optimistic despite these problems. He expressed that he was heartened by the refusal of representatives of Guinean civil society (the Forces Vives) to meet with Dadis at the Palais de Peuple, whose large open spaces would allow Dadis's militant supporters to intimidate them. Dore remarked that this was the first time that civil society stood up to Dadis. And, he added, Dadis backed down,reaffirming the electoral calendar (October legislative elections and December presidential elections) that he had agreed to with them earlier. Dore said that Dadis' erratic behavior greatly concerned Guinea's six neighbors and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and that ECOWAS would act to prevent disaster. PDAS Carter: Guinea Headed for Violence, Instability and Another Coup -------------- ¶4. (C) PDAS Carter noted the problems that Dore cited and said that Guinea is a collapsing state in which the military must change fundamentally and the political leadership must start acting in the national interest instead of looking out only for themselves. Otherwise, growing desperation will lead to a level of violence that Guinea has not seen in a long time. He told Dore that the USG does not expect the CNDD to hold free and fair elections and that he does not see Guinea as ripe for political change. On the contrary, he sees Guinea headed for violence, instability and another coup. In response, the USG will maintain its principled position against the CNDD and continue withholding all aid to Guinea except for humanitarian and electoral assistance. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) During Dore's tenure as Minister of Finance, Guinea almost completed a Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) program. Dore is one of the few actors on the Guinean political stage with integrity and know-how (he was formerly a staff member for the IMF). One hopes the optimism he professes is well-founded but we note that he has voted with his feet to leave Guinea. We do not have STATE 00072095 002 OF 002 as much faith as he does that Guinean civil society, still traumatized from the dictatorship of Sekou Toure, can shake off its passivity and ethnic divisions and challenge the regime. As for ECOWAS, particularly its members that border Guinea and the organization's president, Dr. Ibn Chambas, they have shown themselves quite content to accommodate themselves to Dadis' continuation of military rule in Guinea in exchange for a false hope of stability. CLINTON