HLTF: GUIDANCE FOR JULY 9 MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 070159 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2014 TAGS: KCFE PARM PREL SUBJECT: HLTF: GUIDANCE FOR JULY 9 MEETING REF: A) STATE 59424 (Geneva Bilat on CFE); B) BERLIN 755 (High Level Meeting on Arms Control); C) USOSCE 151 (ASRC Session II) Classified by Rich Davis, VCI/CCA Office Director, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The July 9 High Level Task Force (HLTF) meeting will take place following the June 10 Berlin high level meeting on "The Future of Conventional Arms Control in Europe," the June 24-25 OSCE Annual Security Review Conference, the June 27-28 "Informal" OSCE Ministerial on European security, and on the heels of the U.S.- Russia Presidential Summit. Allies will be interested in reviewing outcomes of this series of senior level meetings, receiving an update on the status of U.S.- Russia bilateral discussions on CFE, and discussing next steps on CFE as preparations begin for fall NATO and OSCE Ministerials. U.S. goals for the July 9 HLTF and related meetings are to: -- reinforce that Allies have been effective in delivering a unified, consistent message on CFE and more broadly on European security; -- update Allies on the status of U.S.-Russian bilateral discussions; -- gauge Allied reactions to recent senior level meetings and seek Allied views and assessments for managing CFE in the upcoming months while maintaining Allied unity; and -- coordinate with the Baltic states to plan for annual U.S.-Baltic arms control consultations which will be hosted by Estonia in September. CONTACTS and BILATERALS. ¶2. (C) While CFE is not on the agenda for the upcoming U.S.-Russia Summit, Allies will be interested in a readout of any CFE-related discussions. Team may also review Assistant Secretary Gottemoeller's June 3 meeting in Geneva with Russian Security and Disarmament Director Antonov as well as the June 11 Roundtable on European Security with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko during his D.C. visit. U.S. rep may draw from Reftel A for details of the Gottemoeller/Antonov June 3 CFE discussions with experts and share the following: -- On June 3 Assistant Secretary Gottemoeller and MFA Director Antonov met on CFE in Geneva; Allies were briefed on the meeting on June 5 in Vienna (and via cable to capitals) prior to the Berlin high level meeting. As this was the first U.S-Russia interagency team meeting in 2009 on CFE, it had an introductory character. The discussion - which was based on the parallel actions package and Russia's recent aide memoire on CFE - focused on some of the key elements: possible provisional application of CFE, the flank regime, Moldova, and Georgia. A/S Gottemoeller raised, but there was no time to explore, the conditions under which Russia would resume implementation of CFE. Much like at the June 9 Allied meeting with Russia in Berlin, Russia did not elaborate on any of the ideas in its aide memoire. Antonov did tell Gottemoeller that the Russian government wants to preserve CFE, and both agreed on the importance of the U.S.-Russia bilateral process to finding a way forward. Antonov also responded that the proposals on Georgia presented to him by former A/S Fried in December 2008 were not acceptable to Russia. A/S Gottemoeller and MFA Director Antonov continue to meet frequently on START issues, during which they will be able to follow up on the question of future bilateral meetings on CFE. We will continue to keep Allies informed, and consult on next steps. -- On June 11 in Washington a U.S. team met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko for an informal discussion on European security in preparation for Corfu; the broad themes were those that FM Lavrov expressed at both the ASRC and at the "informal" OSCE Ministerial. On CFE, Grushko stressed it should be STATE 00070159 002 OF 003 worked separately, and he emphasized familiar themes such as the need to both revive CFE and modernize it by accounting for NATO enlargement and eliminating the flank for Russia. Without elaborating, he suggested regional and bilateral transparency measures could serve as a way to address key CFE issues without universal mechanisms, norms and legal terms. He looked to recent U.S.-Russia bilateral discussions and the Russian aide memoire as positive momentum. WAY AHEAD: RECENT MEETINGS AND NEXT STEPS ¶3. (C) Recent senior level meetings (June 10 Berlin high level meeting on "The Future of Conventional Arms Control in Europe," the June 24-25 OSCE Annual Security Review Conference, and the June 27-28 "Informal" OSCE Ministerial on European security) have clearly demonstrated a broad convergence of views among most OSCE participating States and among NATO Allies on European security and CFE that were expressed at Strasbourg-Kehl. Although the meetings across the spectrum have served primarily as platforms for dialogue with little concrete movement, the "Corfu process" will continue throughout the fall in the OSCE. Allies may want to discuss how efforts to resolve the CFE impasse will fit into this dialogue as the process evolves. U.S. rep should draw from the following to reinforce U.S. messages from Berlin and Corfu, which received broad support, and seek Allied reactions to recent meetings and their views on managing CFE in the upcoming months: -- As discussion in Corfu confirmed, we should be prepared to continue engagement through a constructive dialogue on European security and look forward to further discussions in the fall as we explore each of the three interrelated dimensions of security. -- We must stay on message on core points: the OSCE's principles remain sound, its three-pillar comprehensive approach (political-military, economic, and human dimensions) is the right one. -- We think the existing security institutions have done a good job, but we remain open to ideas to improve their work. For example, it would be useful to consider whether we can better respond to crises such as the Russia-Georgia conflict in August 2008 and to better promote settlement of the protracted conflicts. But the recent termination of the UN and OSCE missions in Georgia is not a failure of the institutions we have but a failure to use those institutions for the purposes they serve. -- This dialogue must include a discussion of existing commitments and institutions and a review of how well we are using these institutions and fulfilling our commitments. Trust and confidence are critical to cooperative security. We must continue to reinforce with Russia that positive steps on CFE and Georgia would help to restore trust among OSCE participating States. Frankly, it is difficult to have a discussion on improving European security or building new architecture when Russia's actions at times appear to undermine the institutions we have. -- We will also need to find a way forward on CFE, discussions about which are on a separate track, while nevertheless related to this broader effort. Russia's continuing suspension of implementation of CFE raises serious concerns about its readiness to meet legal and political obligations, a requirement FM Lavrov stressed in the NRC. -- Recent discussions demonstrate clear agreement that CFE has made a major contribution to European security and stability. Allies remain ready to work with Russia to find a solution to overcome the current impasse that enhances overall security and stability in Europe and maintains fundamental principles, e.g., territorial integrity, host nation consent to the presence of foreign military forces, and meeting obligations. -- While the series of recent meetings have enabled Allies to send a consistent and unified message regarding CFE and European security more broadly, we must not lose sight of the need to focus on addressing core issues as we seek to resolve CFE. Intensified dialogue with Russia could serve that aim, but broader STATE 00070159 003 OF 003 meetings that tend more toward process than progress on substance could become significant distracters. -- In moving ahead, it would be beneficial to assess recent events to include the U.S.-Russia Summit and coordinate our approach as we plan for the fall. We are very interested in Allies' views on the current state of play and how it will impact the next few months. ¶4. (SBU) U.S. rep should update the HLTF, as appropriate, on any discussions between A/S Gottemoeller and Director Antonov on the margins of the summit concerning future bilateral contacts on CFE. BALTIC CONSULTATIONS ¶5. (SBU) The U.S. HLTF delegation conducts annual CFE- related consultations with Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian counterparts to seek their views on current arms control issues and provide an opportunity to engage with U.S. CFE experts. Estonia will serve as the host for 2009 consultations, which we expect will be held in September in conjunction with the next HLTF meeting. U.S. delegation should follow up on coordination that was initiated in Berlin to finalize dates, based on the dates agreed for the September HLTF and seek input regarding the agenda. Last year's agenda focused on the CFE impasse and prospects for future discussions, Russia's FSC proposals for new arms control measures and Russia's European security agreement proposal. Discussions also included an informal presentation of the security situation in the Baltic region, as well as a DOD update on the current status of bilateral mil-mil engagement on defense planning. DATE OF NEXT HLTF MEETING ¶6. (SBU) The U.S. delegation should indicate that the coming weeks would best be used to assess recent events as they pertain to CFE and delegation should propose that the HLTF meet next in mid-September (preferably around Sep 17, as USNATO has warned of expected hotel room shortages in Brussels the weeks before and after.) CLINTON