(C/NF) VENEZUELAN FOREIGN POLICY WITHIN LATIN

S E C R E T STATE 070077 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2034 TAGS: PINR EPET ETRD PREL VE SUBJECT: (C/NF) VENEZUELAN FOREIGN POLICY WITHIN LATIN AMERICA (C-AL9-01405) Classified By: SUZANNE MCCORMICK, DIR., INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS APPRECIATE THE WIDE BODY OF REPORTING OVER MANY YEARS ON THE PUBLIC AND COVERT TOOLS VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT CHAVEZ USES TO GAIN INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA. US POLICYMAKERS AND ANALYSTS REMAIN INTERESTED IN THIS TOPIC AND, AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, WOULD APPRECIATE ANY REPORTING ON CHAVEZ'S ONGOING FOREIGN POLICY TOOLS WITHIN LATIN AMERICA GIVEN THE CURRENT OIL PRICES AND LESSONS VENEZUELA HAS LEARNED FROM ITS FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES AND SETBACKS OVER THE YEARS. ¶A. (C) WHAT ARE CHAVEZ'S TOP REGIONAL SPENDING PRIORITIES FOR 2009? IN POST'S ESTIMATION, WILL HE MAKE CUTBACKS IN REGIONAL SPENDING GIVEN LOWER OIL PRICES, OR WILL HE CONTINUE SPENDING DESPITE HAVING FEWER RESOURCES? ¶B. (C) WHICH COUNTRIES IS CHAVEZ MOST LIKELY TO LOBBY THE MOST AGGRESSIVELY TO JOIN PETROCARIBE OR ALBA, AND WHAT, IF ANY, STRATEGIES DOES HE PLAN TO USE OR INCENTIVES DOES HE PLAN TO OFFER? ¶C. (C) WHAT IS THE STATUS OF ONGOING VENEZUELAN-SPONSORED SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS IN LATIN AMERICA? HOW DOES THE PUBLIC IN VENEZUELA VIEW THE PROGRAMS? TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUCCESSFUL IN BOLSTERING CHAVEZ'S IMAGE IN THE REGION? ¶D. (C) WHAT ARE CHAVEZ'S PLANS WITH REGARD TO UPCOMING REGIONAL ELECTIONS? WE WOULD SPECIFICALLY APPRECIATE REPORTING ON VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS' VIEWS TOWARD THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN HONDURAS, BOLIVIA, COLOMBIA, URUGUAY, CHILE, AND BRAZIL (IN 2010). WHAT IS CHAVEZ DOING, IF ANYTHING, TO INFLUENCE REGIONAL EVENTS FROM BEHIND THE SCENES? ¶E. (C) WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY REPORTING ON PUBLIC REACTION TO CHAVEZ'S REGIONAL FOREIGN POLICY. HOW IS THE POPULATION REACTING IN THOSE COUNTRIES THAT BENEFIT FROM HIS FOREIGN INITIATIVES? HOW IS THE VENEZUELAN POPULATION REACTING? CLINTON