(U) IRAN: REACTION OF IRGC LEADERSHIP TO PROTEST

S E C R E T STATE 065908 NOFORN PLEASE PASS TO IRPO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2034 TAGS: PINR PINS IR SUBJECT: (U) IRAN: REACTION OF IRGC LEADERSHIP TO PROTEST CRACKDOWN (C-ME9-01435) REF: A. ANKARA 000878 ¶B. BAKU 000508 ¶C. BERLIN 000751 ¶D. ASHGABAT 733 Classified By: SUZANNE MCCORMICK, DIR., INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS GREATLY APPRECIATE THE VERY INFORMATIVE AND USEFUL REPORTING POSTS HAVE PROVIDED IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE 12 JUNE IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE HARD WORK AND VALUABLE INSIGHTS. ANALYSTS ARE MONITORING INTERACTIONS AND RELATIONS AMONG SENIOR IRGC LEADERSHIP AND THEIR RESPONSES TO A CRACKDOWN ON IRANIAN PROTESTERS AND ARE INTERESTED IN ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON COHESION WITHIN IRGC. AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, ANALYSTS WOULD WELCOME ANY INSIGHT REGARDING POTENTIAL FISSURES IN THE IRGC SENIOR LEADERSHIP AND WHAT THOSE RAMIFICATIONS MIGHT BE FOR FUTURE PROTESTS, THE SUPREME LEADER, AND AHMADI-NEJAD. MANY THANKS, AND REGARDS FROM WASHINGTON. ¶A. (S/NF) IS THE IRGC SENIOR OFFICER CORPS FACTIONALIZED OVER THE REELECTION OF AHMADI-NEJAD AND/OR HOW TO HANDLE THE PROTESTS THAT HAVE EMERGED SINCE THE 12 JUNE ELECTION? 1) (S/NF) IF SO, HAS AHMADI-NEJAD CONTRIBUTED TO ANY FACTIONALIZATION? WHAT ARE THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ISSUES THAT ARE CAUSING IRGC SENIOR COMMANDERS TO FACTIONALIZE? 2) (S/NF) IF SO, WHO ARE THE FIGURES/PEOPLE/OFFICERS/FORMER OFFICERS/OTHER IRGC SENIOR MEMBERS COALESCING AROUND OR ALTERNATIVELY, WHAT OFFICERS ARE COURTING OTHER IRGC OFFICERS INTO THEIR CAMPS (I.E, SAFAVI, MOHSEN REZAI, QALIBAF, JAFARI, ZOLQADR, HEJAZI, MORTEZA REZAI, SOLEIMANI)? ¶B. (S/NF) ARE THERE ANY EXAMPLES OF IRGC SENIOR LEADERSHIP DISOBEYING THE SUPREME LEADER OVER HIS SUPPORT OF AHMADI-NEJAD'S REELECTION? IF SO, WHO AMONG THE GUARD IS DOING THIS? WHO ARE THEY LISTENING TO FOR ORDERS INSTEAD? WHAT SORTS OF ORDERS ARE THEY DISOBEYING/IGNORING FROM THE LEADER? 1) (S/NF) WHAT IS THE IRGC COMMANDER JAFARI'S PLAN IF THE SUPREME LEADER ORDERED A CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTERS? WILL HE FOLLOW THE LEADER'S ORDER? 2) (S/NF) WILL IRGC MID-GRADE OFFICERS FOLLOW JAFARI'S ORDER IF HE ORDERS A CRACKDOWN ON PROTESTERS? WILL IRGC RANK-AND-FILE MEMBERS FOLLOW ORDERS TO CRACK DOWN ON PROTESTERS? WOULD THEY CRACK DOWN ON VIOLENT PROTESTERS, ON PEACEFUL PROTESTERS IF ORDERED TO DO SO, OR STAND BY? ¶C. (S/NF) ARE THERE OTHER IRGC COMMANDERS IN SENIOR GUARD LEADERSHIP CIRCLES THAT WOULD UNDERMINE AN ORDER BY KHAMENEI OR JAFARI TO USE HARSH MEASURES AGAINST PROTESTERS? ¶D. (S/NF) ARE THERE ALLIANCES FORMING AMONG IRGC SENIOR OFFICERS AND POLITICIANS? ARE THERE ALLIANCES FORMING BETWEEN IRGC SENIOR OFFICERS AND ANTI-AHMADI-NEJAD CLERICS? ¶E. (S/NF) ARE SENIOR IRGC COMMANDERS RESIGNING OR RETIRING SUDDENLY? IF SO, WHO? ¶F. (S/NF) ARE SENIOR IRGC COMMANDERS ENGAGING IN POLITICAL FACTIONAL DEBATES IN SENIOR REGIME CIRCLES? WHAT IS THEIR POSITION VIS-A-VIS AHMADI-NEJAD, KHAMENEI, RAFSANJANI? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-ME9-01435 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON