(C) KUDOS AND FOLLOWUP QUESTIONS ON OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 055869 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: (C) KUDOS AND FOLLOWUP QUESTIONS ON OPPOSITION REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (CHP) (C-RE9-01066) REF: A. ANKARA 000485 ¶B. ANKARA 000466 ¶C. ANKARA 000446 ¶D. ISTANBUL 000084 ¶E. ANKARA 000323 ¶F. ANKARA 000314 ¶G. ANKARA 000281 ¶H. ISTANBUL 000070 Classified By: SUZANNE MCCORMICK, DIR., INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS GREATLY APPRECIATE THE COMPREHENSIVE REPORTING ON THE JUSTICE AND DEVELOPMENT PARTY (AKP) AND OPPOSITION BEFORE AND AFTER LOCAL ELECTIONS PROVIDED BY EMBASSY ANKARA AND CONGEN ISTANBUL. ANALYSTS HAVE USED THE REPORTING IN AN ARRAY OF CURRENT PRODUCTION AND BRIEFINGS TO POLICYMAKERS. ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE ANY ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS POSTS COULD PROVIDE REGARDING THE OPPOSITION REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (CHP),AS TIME AND RESOURCE PERMIT. MANY THANKS AND REGARDS FROM WASHINGTON. ¶A. (U) INTERNAL CHP ISSUES: 1) (SBU) WHAT IS THE OPPOSITION REPUBLICAN CHP,S STRATEGY AFTER THE LOCAL ELECTION? WHAT FUTURE PLANS, IF ANY, DOES IT HAVE TO EXPAND ITS BASE LOOKING AHEAD AT 2011 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, AND HOW WILL IT IMPLEMENT THEM? 2) (SBU) WHAT IS THE CHP'S POSTURE TOWARDS THE US AFTER POTUS'S APRIL VISIT? 3) (SBU) ARE THERE ANY PLANS FOR AN EARLY CHP PARTY CONGRESS? 4) (C) WHAT IS CHP LEADER DENIZ BAYKAL'S HOLD ON THE PARTY? ARE THERE ANY POSSIBLE THREATS TO BAYKAL'S LEADERSHIP INTERNALLY? IF SO, ARE THOSE INDIVIDUALS RECEIVING OUTSIDE SUPPORT AND IN WHAT FORM? WHAT GIVES ANY PROSPECTIVE CHALLENGERS THE HOPE THAT THEY MIGHT FARE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS CONTENDERS? 5) (C) WHAT IS BAYKAL'S RELATIONSHIP WITH CHP PARLIAMENTARY WHIP KEMAL KILICDAROGLU? HOW DOES THE CHP VIEW KILICDAROGLU'S ELECTION RESULT IN THE ISTANBUL MAYORAL RACE? WHAT MEASURES MIGHT BAYKAL BE CONSIDERING TO DEFEND HIMSELF AGAINST KILICDAROGLU'S POPULARITY? 6) (SBU) WHO WITHIN THE PARTY TAKES THE LEAD ON DEVELOPING VARIOUS ASPECTS OF PARTY POLICY, SUCH AS KURDISH OUTREACH, THE ECONOMY, AND/OR LABOR ISSUES? 7) (C) WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY FURTHER INFORMATION ON KILICDAROGLU'S PROSPECTS IN CHP, HIS BACKGROUND, AND POSSIBLE POLITICAL PLANS. WHO ARE HIS POLITICAL ALLIES? WHO ARE OTHER CREDIBLE POTENTIAL CHALLENGERS AND/OR SUCCESSORS TO BAYKAL FOR THE PARTY LEADERSHIP? 8) (SBU) WE WOULD ALSO APPRECIATE ANY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE STATE OF CHP'S RESOURCES AND ORGANIZATION. ¶B. (U) CHP AND OTHERS: 1) (SBU) WHAT IS THE AKP'S VIEW OF CHP'S LOCAL ELECTION RESULT? 2) (C) WHAT ARE THE CHP'S PLANS TO COUNTER THE AKP GOVERNMENT? HOW MUCH EFFORT IS THE PARTY EXPENDING TO DEVELOP POLICY, VIS-A-VIS OTHER MECHANISMS TO COMBAT AKP, SUCH AS REFERRING LAWS TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT? 3) (C) WHAT IS CHP'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE TGS? HAS IT CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS? IF SO, WHAT SPARKED THE CHANGE? 4) (SBU) WHAT IS THE CHP'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DSP, DTP, AND MHP? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-01066 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON