SECRETARY CLINTON'S MEETING WITH FINNISH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 050286 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM NATO EAID IAEA PARM KNNP SENV, ENRG, KWBG, UNSC, AF, RS, IR, IS, PK, TU, EU SUBJECT: SECRETARY CLINTON'S MEETING WITH FINNISH FOREIGN MINISTER ALEXANDER STUBB, MAY 11, 2009, 11:00 A.M., WASHINGTON, D.C. ¶1. (U) Classified by EUR Assistant Secretary Philip H. Gordon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶2. (U) May 11, 2009, 11:00 11:45, Washington, D.C. ¶3. (U) Participants: U.S. -------------- The Secretary EUR DAS Judy Garber NSC Director Jeff Hovenier S Staff: Jake Sullivan EUR/NB Estonia/Finland Desk Officer Miguel Rodrigues (Notetaker) Finland -------------- Alexander Stubb, Foreign Minister Ambassador Pekka Lintu Elina Kalkku, Director General for the Department for the Americas and Asia Jori Arvonen, Senior Political Advisor to the Minister Anna Wickstrom-Noejgaard, Head of Unit for North America Leena Ritola, Minister Counselor, Embassy of Finland Jyri Jarviaho, Counselor, Unit for North America Kari Mokko, Counselor, Embassy of Finland ¶4. (C) Summary: In a wide-ranging discussion, the Secretary and Finnish Foreign Minster Stubb agreed on the need to engage with Russia, without crossing red lines. Stubb conceded that Europeans could do more in Afghanistan and observed that if Europe did not speak with one voice on the "big issues," it risked being marginalized. As for the Middle East Peace Process, the Secretary said the U.S. approach is to support Abbas and the Fayyad government and urge the Israelis to show support for the Palestinians on the ground, while Stubb observed that he has found Syrian leaders willing to engage, and the Lebanese committed to democracy. The Secretary disagreed with Stubb's suggestion that Hamas be involved in negotiations if it formed a coalition government with Fatah, and she decried Iran's "complicating" role in the region. Stubb expressed strong support for Turkish accession to the EU and requested U.S. support for a Finnish seat on the UN Security Council for 2013-14. The Secretary thanked the Finns for their approach on the issue of Guantanamo detainees and requested Finnish support for Ambassador Amano to head the IAEA. End Summary. Russia -------------- ¶5. (C) Observing that the GOF had recently released its first-ever Russia Action Plan, the Secretary asked Stubb for his views on Russia. Stubb said that Russia is undergoing three major changes. On the economic front, Stubb said the days of Russia's economic miracle, when fifty percent of state income came from oil and gas, were over; he urged Russian admission to the World Trade Organization. On the political front, while Stubb praised Medvedev's approach on rule of law, he quipped that Medvedev and Putin function like "good cop/bad cop." On foreign policy, Stubb urged engagement, not isolation, citing Russia's "enormous inferiority complex." He expressed confidence that the Russia-West relationship is moving in the right direction, with Russian revanchism "cooling off" due to the financial crisis and U.S. efforts to revitalize the relationship. ¶6. (C) On Medvedev's proposal for a new European security architecture, the Secretary agreed that certain red lines should not be crossed. These are respect for existing structures, the addressing of "soft security," and the conduct of all discussion within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in STATE 00050286 002 OF 003 SUBJECT: SECRETARY CLINTON'S MEETING WITH FINNISH FOREIGN MINISTER ALEXANDER STUBB, MAY 11, 2009, 11: Europe (OSCE). Stubb responded that EU High Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana was on board with this approach, while noting lack of unanimity within the EU on the best response to the Medvedev proposal. (Note: Stubb handed the Secretary a non-paper on European security; EUR/NB has forwarded it to post by classified e-mail. End note.) He mentioned that the Kazakh government may organize an OSCE summit to discuss the Medvedev Proposal. Afghanistan -------------- ¶7. (C) The Secretary thanked Stubb for Finland's "indispensable help" in Afghanistan and urged an increase in technical instructors and civilians. Stubb responded that Finland is a small country with 80% of its peacekeepers serving with NATO in either KFOR or ISAF. Stubb added that the Europeans could do more, commending the Administration for posing the right questions to Europe. The Secretary noted that European priorities are not always clear, and she requested Finnish "advice" on a constructive approach to Europe. Stubb acknowledged that Europeans do not speak with one voice on the "big issues," and predicted that if they continued along this path, the EU will be marginalized. Middle East, Iran and Turkey -------------- ¶8. (C) Turning to the Middle East Peace Process, the Secretary observed it is "challenging" to persuade the Israelis to take steps on settlements, but she expressed determination to try. She said our approach is to support Abbas and the Fayyad government and build capacity in the West Bank, while urging the Israelis to support the Palestinian Authority on the ground. Stubb said that on his recent visit to Syria and Lebanon, he found Syrian leaders willing to engage and the Lebanese committed to democracy and sovereignty-building no matter what the outcome of their elections. He urged a comprehensive settlement rather than separate bilateral Israeli deals with the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon. ¶9. (C) The Secretary disagreed with Stubb's suggestion that Hamas be involved in peace discussions if it formed a coalition government with Fatah, observing that President Abbas feared Fatah would not survive such a unity government. She noted no serious effort within Hamas to change its rejectionist ideology, and cautioned that Israel will not take any steps forward if Hamas is included in a unity government. Hamas is better financed than Fatah and has a "blank check" from Iran, the Secretary observed, dismissing media reports, quoted by Stubb, that Hamas leader Khaled Mashal may accept existing Palestinian-Israeli peace agreements. ¶10. (C) The Secretary decried Iran's "obvious, deep and complicating role in the region" and cautioned that absent joint European/US/Arab action, the regional balance of power will tip toward Iran. She predicted an extremely dangerous arms race if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon. ¶11. (C) Responding to the Secretary's query on Turkey's EU prospects, Stubb predicted that based upon recent public opinion polls, French objections to Turkey's EU accession would likely diminish. As for Germany, Stubb noted that its opposition to Turkey's EU accession arises out of its concern that Turkey would upon accession become the most populous member of the EU. Stubb expressed strong support for Turkish accession. UN Elections, GTMO and Visits -------------- ¶12. (C) The Secretary asked for support for Ambassador Yukiya Amano of Japan to lead the International Atomic Energy Agency, describing him as a strong voice against proliferation. Stubb countered with a request for support for Finland's candidacy for a rotating United Nations Security Council seat for 2013-14. ¶13. (C) The Secretary expressed appreciation for Finnish efforts to keep the EU open to individual U.S. requests STATE 00050286 003 OF 003 SUBJECT: SECRETARY CLINTON'S MEETING WITH FINNISH FOREIGN MINISTER ALEXANDER STUBB, MAY 11, 2009, 11: to resettle GTMO detainees. Stubb expressed preference for a common EU line on detainees, but failing that, he said Finland would consider a case-by-case approach. ¶14. (C) Stubb invited the Secretary to Finland, and requested that she facilitate a visit by President Halonen to Washington this year. Climate Change, Development -------------- ¶15. (U) The Secretary noted that we are working hard on our approach to climate change. She expressed U.S. interest in working with Finland on black carbon. ¶16. (U) Noting that she had received Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Paavo Vayrynen's letter on transatlantic development cooperation, the Secretary described Vayrynen's proposal as an important idea, adding that the U.S. and the EU need to better coordinate their efforts, and hold themselves to quantifiable measures. CLINTON