SOUTH KOREA WANTS TO STRENGTHEN NONPROLIFERATION

S E C R E T STATE 046713

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2019
TAGS: KNNP PREL KN KS
SUBJECT: SOUTH KOREA WANTS TO STRENGTHEN NONPROLIFERATION
REGIMES AND FACILITATE NUCLEAR POWER GENERATION

Classified By: EAP A/S Glyn T. Davies, Acting, for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (S) SUMMARY: During a May 1 working lunch, Verification,
Compliance, and Implementation (VCI) Assistant Secretary Rose
Gottemoeller and Republic of Korea (ROK) Deputy Foreign
Minister (DFM) Joon Oh discussed further strengthening the
international nonproliferation regime, coping with the North
Korean nuclear threat, and working to solve front-end and
back-end fuel cycle challenges facing the nuclear power
generation industry in South Korea. A/S Gottemoeller
stressed the United States would work hard at the upcoming
NPT Prepcom to ensure a successful Review Conference next
year. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
United States Wants to Strengthen Nonproliferation Regime
-------------- --------------


2. (S) A/S Gottemoeller said President Obama noted during his
election campaign his interest in strengthening our
approaches to nonproliferation, citing as examples his call
to strengthen the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
and the Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC). DFM Oh suggested the
recent North Korean actions provided a good motivator to
strengthen the HCOC. The MTCR is voluntary, but the ROKG
would like it to be strengthened to become legally binding.
A/S Gottemoeller responded that the United States did not yet
have an official position on this idea, but she agreed this
could help, noting also the Russian proposal to
"internationalize" the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces
Treaty. The Obama Administration continues to support the
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and the Global
Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT). President
Obama is committed to the global goal of no nuclear weapons
and has noted the limits of the current nonproliferation
regimes, magnified by recent North Korean and Iranian
behavior. He believes treaty signatories have certain
rights, but also bear a responsibility to comply with their
obligations, she said. She noted in this regard the
President,s strong statement on compliance in his Prague
speech.


3. (S) DFM Oh said he agreed with this general approach to
handling challenges to the NPT. Oh remarked that the NPT
adherents should discuss more about North Korea-related
issues at the upcoming Prepcom. Unlike last year, when there
was greater hope for progress in the Six-Party Talks, he
said, now "there is no reason to hold back. If we let North
Korea get away with its threat, this could constitute the
first-ever case of a country going nuclear within the NPT."
Oh noted North Korea had received the benefits of the
"peaceful use" clauses of the NPT, such as its acquisition of
a small research reactor from Russia. He said the text of
Article 10, which governs withdrawal from the NPT, is too
vague and does not specify a response from other member
states. The ROK presented a working paper at last year,s
Prepcom to specify the conditions for withdrawal, he noted.


4. (S) VCI Nuclear Affairs Office Director Jeff Eberhardt
agreed the NPT parties need to strengthen the regime to deal
with the possibility of withdrawal. The discussion between
NPT member states so far had not delved into much detail but
it has, for example, been suggested at previous Prepcoms that
any declaration by a state of its intention to withdraw from
the NPT should logically be an issue for discussion by the UN
Security Council. The United States was interested in
hearing the views of others regarding specific actions State
Parties might take. Since North Korean actions had focused
international attention on the issue, this may be the right
time to develop specific proposals, Eberhardt observed.


5. (S) At the last Prepcom, the confrontation between the
Non-Aligned Movement and the West meant we could not focus on
this kind of issue, DFM Oh noted. A/S Gottemoeller agreed
this is an important issue, which we hope to make progress on
at the Prepcom in New York. North Korea and Iran closely
monitor how the international community reacts to the actions
of the other, she noted.

--------------
Coping with the North Korean Nuclear Threat
--------------


6. (S) DFM Oh said the ROKG tries to keep North Korean
nuclear threats in perspective. In 1993, North Korea
underestimated the IAEA inspectors, who raised questions
about North Korea,s honesty in declaring its nuclear
programs, so North Korea had to expel the IAEA monitors to
avoid providing more information. This crisis was resolved
through the Agreed Framework, which gave North Korea
something in exchange for giving up its nuclear program.


7. (S) The United States believes that verification has to be
clearly specified (i.e. written down) to achieve a permanent
resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, A/S
Gottemoeller said. Describing his view of the U.S.
approaches over time, DFM Oh opined that the USG has used
different tactics to achieve this end: (1) putting
everything on the table to be agreed and implemented in
sequence; and (2) taking what we can get piecemeal, while
continuing to work to achieve agreement on everything. The
problem with the second approach was that the real hard
issues linger. A/S Gottemoeller said the United States would
keep working to get North Korea back to the table, noting we
need to build on the agreements made in the September 19,
2005 Joint Statement. Gottemoeller remarked that it was hard
to understand the thinking of North Korean leaders. They
should work to take advantage of the possibilities of working
with the new U.S. Administration, but instead they do the
opposite. DFM Oh said North Korea specializes in
brinkmanship but would eventually come back to the table. If
there were new threats, such as a nuclear test or more ICBM
launches, that would be "too much," he said.


8. (S) A/S Gottemoeller said she understood China had some
helpful ideas about verification during the last round of
Six-Party Talks discussions. DFM Oh said if we were making
progress, the ROKG could work with the Chinese to pursue
these ideas with North Korea. But, if we have "reached the
moment of truth, it may not be enough." A/S Gottemoeller
noted the past success of outreach efforts with Russia as a
means of building bridges to span distrust and asked whether
the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program could usefully
be applied to North Korea, such as through the creation of
"scientist-to- scientist" redirection programs. This would
be tough, but it worked in Russia after a lot of
confidence-building measures, she said. DFM Oh responded
that he thinks a scientist-to-scientist dialogue could only
come after we have agreement on what to do with North Korean
nuclear facilities. Oh said the ROKG believed North Korea
would need to construct a new cooling tower to replace the
one that was destroyed at Yongbyon last year. "Now we are at
square one," he said.


9. (S) A/S Gottemoeller said she understood North Korea is
preparing to start separating plutonium again. Having paid
to destroy the Yongbyon cooling tower once, she said, the
United States will not want to pay to destroy it again. The
North Koreans are tough negotiators -- they drive a very hard
bargain. We need to ensure that we secure access to suspect
sites in any new agreement, she said, adding that she
understood that the latest Chinese proposal moved in that
direction. DFM Oh said it is difficult to predict what North
Korean leaders will do but ROK Chief Negotiator Wi Sung-lac
is in close consultation with Ambassadors Bosworth and Sung
Kim to try to find a way forward.


10. (S) ROK Embassy Political Minister-Counselor Kim
Hyong-zhin said North Korea had been working towards
finalizing the succession issue by 2012 -- the 100th
anniversary of Kim Il-sung,s birthday. After Kim Jong-il,s
apparent stroke last August, he has had to accelerate the
process. Minister-Counselor Kim said it appeared the North
Korean regime was preparing the people for public discussion
of the succession issue by releasing photos of the national
commission "for the first time" and releasing pictures of Kim
Jong-il looking very old and frail. DFM Oh said some
speculated that North Korea wanted to build up its missile
and nuclear capability so that it could be recognized as a
nuclear power before Kim Jong-il dies.


11. (S) A/S Gottemoeller noted Iran was providing similar
challenges for the United States. DFM Oh noted the EU 3 was
using the same "carrot" strategy with Iran that has "failed"
with North Korea. The EU 3 was proposing to give something
to Iran for giving up its nuclear program. Because Iran was
not as economically poor or politically isolated as North
Korea, Iran was not as desperate and was more difficult to
influence.

-------------- --------------
ROK Wants U.S. Engagement to Resolve Nuclear Energy Issues
-------------- --------------


12. (S) DFM Oh said the ROKG would like to initiate talks to
renew the 40-year-old U.S.-ROK Nuclear Cooperation Agreement.
In 1993, the ROK voluntarily agreed not to construct any
enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) facilities. The ROK has
the sixth largest nuclear energy sector in the world,
generating 40% of the ROK,s electricity, he said. The ROK
needs a stable supply of nuclear fuel, and at the back end,
the ROK stores the largest quantity of spent nuclear fuel of
any country in the world. We need to come up with ways to
handle these two issues and would like to do it in
cooperation with the United States, he stressed.


13. (S) DFM Oh noted the initial thought that pyroprocessing
provided a good proliferation-resistant solution to the
nuclear waste issue has gone astray. The ROK needed to find
a way to deal with spent fuel without creating a
proliferation risk by separating plutonium from spent fuel.
The new U.S. Administration needed to carefully review the
nuclear issue, he urged. We are good allies and need to work
together to find a way forward. A/S Gottemoeller said the
new Administration would want to pursue cooperation with the
ROK to find solutions in this area.


14. (S) DFM Oh opined that, for the front end of the nuclear
fuel cycle, the national fuel bank idea deserved attention.
For the back end, the ROK needed something to deal with
mounting stocks of spent fuel, if not pyroprocessing. A/S
Gottemoeller said concerns about climate change have altered
the public acceptability of nuclear power, adding that the
President,s Science Advisor was working on these issues.
The Obama Administration was committed to internationalism,
but we do not yet know exactly what the preferred solutions
would be, she said. DFM Oh said Russia suggested last year
that the ROK join a Russian-based nuclear fuel bank, noting
that the United States endorsed this idea. The ROKG was
willing to consider all proposals, noting that stability and
cost would be key factors for the ROKG. So far, the ROKG has
not seen any good suggestions for coping with the back end of
the fuel cycle, a vital question for the international
community to focus on, he opined.
CLINTON