A/AS CARTER'S MAR 19 MEETING W/ FORMER GUINEAN PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 030235


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019
TAGS: GV KDEM PGOV PHUM PINS PREL
SUBJECT: A/AS CARTER'S MAR 19 MEETING W/ FORMER GUINEAN PM
FRANCOIS FALL

Classified By: Acting AF/W DAS Mark Boulware for reasons 1.5(b/d)

Summary and Background
--------------

1. (C) Summary: On March 19, Acting A/S Phillip Carter
met with former Guinean Prime Minister Francois Fall to
exchange views on Guinea and the ruling National Council
for Democracy and Development (CNDD). Fall said that he
supported the USG's efforts to pressure the CNDD into
holding elections, Guinea's weakness was its divided and
self-interested political class and that the Guinean
military is a gang of 'young delinquents.' In his view,
the CNDD has only two factions led by junta leader
Captain Camara and Second Vice President Brigadier
General Konate. Fall is returning to Guinea to create
his own political party and run for office. Acting A/S
Carter told Fall that he agreed with much of Fall's
assessment of Guinea's problems and told Fall that the
USG will not only continue the pressure but increase it.
He also said that the USG is ready to support the
democratic process but we are hoping to see some
expression of the will of the people. However, too many
Guineans are sitting on the sidelines with crossed arms.
End Summary.


2. (U) Background: The participants were former Guinean
Prime Minister Francois Fall, Acting A/S Phillip Carter,
Acting AF/W DAS Mark Boulware, INR/AF Analyst for West
Africa Bernadette Graves and Acting AF/W Deputy Director
Jim Hunter as notetaker. Francois Fall requested the
meeting with Acting A/S Carter, as Fall was in the U.S.
meeting with Diaspora Guineans before returning to
Guinea.

Fall: USG Must Keep Pushing the Junta
--------------

3. (C) Former Guinean Prime Minister Francois Fall was
highly critical of the junta and Guinea's military,
political and economic leadership in general. He
supports the USG's pressure on the junta for national
elections in 2009. Fall views the Guinean military as a
gang of 'young delinquents' with the junta divided into
two factions, one surrounding junta president Captain
Moussa Dadis Camara and the other backing Brigadier
General Sekouba Konate, Second Vice President and
Minister of Defense. Fall sees the Guinean political
class as divided and self-interested and its leading
businessmen as dependent upon preferential treatment from
the Conte regime who are suffering now that Conte is
gone. Fall has decided to return to Guinea and establish
his own political party to compete in the next national
elections.

Acting A/S Carter: We Will Continue the Pressure -- And
Increase It
--------------

4. (C) Acting A/S Carter told Fall that he agreed with
much of Fall's assessment of Guinea's problems. A/S
Carter emphasized that the United States will continue,
reinforce and augment its pressure on the junta to cede
power to a civilian government and hold credible, free,
fair and transparent elections in 2009. A/S Carter noted
that too many Guineans are sitting on the sidelines with
crossed arms. He said that the U.S. is hoping to see
some expression of the will of the people but if the
people do not play a role and the political class remains
silent, then we will seek to contain the damage from a
failed Guinea.

Comment
--------------

5. (C) Fall was one of Guinea's better Prime Ministers,
which is probably why his tenure was so short. He has gained
significant experience in Somalia and Central Africa working
for the UN on trying to resolve the problems of those
countries, experience that he could draw on as a Guinean
political leader. However, as he is now a Diaspora Guinean,
his strength as a candidate for high office is questionable.
His opinion that Guinea will not be ready for elections in
2009 may at least partly reflect the fact that as someone
who is building a new national party from scratch, a later
election is probably more advantageous for him than an
earlier election


CLINTON