A/AS CARTER'S MAR 19 MEETING W/ FORMER GUINEAN PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 030235 E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2019 TAGS: GV KDEM PGOV PHUM PINS PREL SUBJECT: A/AS CARTER'S MAR 19 MEETING W/ FORMER GUINEAN PM FRANCOIS FALL Classified By: Acting AF/W DAS Mark Boulware for reasons 1.5(b/d) Summary and Background -------------- ¶1. (C) Summary: On March 19, Acting A/S Phillip Carter met with former Guinean Prime Minister Francois Fall to exchange views on Guinea and the ruling National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD). Fall said that he supported the USG's efforts to pressure the CNDD into holding elections, Guinea's weakness was its divided and self-interested political class and that the Guinean military is a gang of 'young delinquents.' In his view, the CNDD has only two factions led by junta leader Captain Camara and Second Vice President Brigadier General Konate. Fall is returning to Guinea to create his own political party and run for office. Acting A/S Carter told Fall that he agreed with much of Fall's assessment of Guinea's problems and told Fall that the USG will not only continue the pressure but increase it. He also said that the USG is ready to support the democratic process but we are hoping to see some expression of the will of the people. However, too many Guineans are sitting on the sidelines with crossed arms. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Background: The participants were former Guinean Prime Minister Francois Fall, Acting A/S Phillip Carter, Acting AF/W DAS Mark Boulware, INR/AF Analyst for West Africa Bernadette Graves and Acting AF/W Deputy Director Jim Hunter as notetaker. Francois Fall requested the meeting with Acting A/S Carter, as Fall was in the U.S. meeting with Diaspora Guineans before returning to Guinea. Fall: USG Must Keep Pushing the Junta -------------- ¶3. (C) Former Guinean Prime Minister Francois Fall was highly critical of the junta and Guinea's military, political and economic leadership in general. He supports the USG's pressure on the junta for national elections in 2009. Fall views the Guinean military as a gang of 'young delinquents' with the junta divided into two factions, one surrounding junta president Captain Moussa Dadis Camara and the other backing Brigadier General Sekouba Konate, Second Vice President and Minister of Defense. Fall sees the Guinean political class as divided and self-interested and its leading businessmen as dependent upon preferential treatment from the Conte regime who are suffering now that Conte is gone. Fall has decided to return to Guinea and establish his own political party to compete in the next national elections. Acting A/S Carter: We Will Continue the Pressure -- And Increase It -------------- ¶4. (C) Acting A/S Carter told Fall that he agreed with much of Fall's assessment of Guinea's problems. A/S Carter emphasized that the United States will continue, reinforce and augment its pressure on the junta to cede power to a civilian government and hold credible, free, fair and transparent elections in 2009. A/S Carter noted that too many Guineans are sitting on the sidelines with crossed arms. He said that the U.S. is hoping to see some expression of the will of the people but if the people do not play a role and the political class remains silent, then we will seek to contain the damage from a failed Guinea. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Fall was one of Guinea's better Prime Ministers, which is probably why his tenure was so short. He has gained significant experience in Somalia and Central Africa working for the UN on trying to resolve the problems of those countries, experience that he could draw on as a Guinean political leader. However, as he is now a Diaspora Guinean, his strength as a candidate for high office is questionable. His opinion that Guinea will not be ready for elections in 2009 may at least partly reflect the fact that as someone who is building a new national party from scratch, a later election is probably more advantageous for him than an earlier election CLINTON