DEMARCHE - SLOVENIAN TIMELINE FOR RATIFICATION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 020395 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2019 TAGS: MARR NATO KTIA PREL MK HR AL SL SUBJECT: DEMARCHE - SLOVENIAN TIMELINE FOR RATIFICATION OF CROATIA INTO NATO REF: A. LJUBLJANA 57 ¶B. ZAGREB 121 ¶C. GREANEY-WESTLEY EMAILS Classified By: EUR A/S Marcie Ries, Acting, for Reasons 1.4(B,D) ¶1. (U) This is an action request cable. Please see paragraphs 9 and 10. ¶2. (SBU) BACKGROUND: NATO Allies pledged at the April 2008 Bucharest Summit to complete ratification of the protocols of accession for Albania and Croatia without delay. Our intention is to finalize the process in advance of the April 2009 NATO Summit in Strasbourg/Kehl so that Albania and Croatia may both participate as NATO members. Of the six NATO Allies who have not yet deposited instruments constituting acceptance of the NATO Accession Protocols for Albania and Croatia with the U.S. Department of State, we are most concerned about Slovenia's failing to ratify the Protocol for Croatia's accession before the Summit. All other Allies are on track to complete their processes before the Summit; Slovenia has completed its ratification of Albania's accession. ¶3. (SBU) A small fringe group of Slovenian nationalists has delayed ratification of Croatian's accession to NATO by requesting a national referendum, tying it to a border dispute dating to the breakup of the former Yugoslavia. Ratification is currently on hold and deposit of Slovenia's ratification could slip to or past the April 3-4 NATO Summit. ¶4. (SBU) Slovenia's government and main opposition party strongly support Croatian NATO membership. Its parliament voted by a 5/6 margin to approve Croatia's protocol of accession. Prime Minister Pahor and the opposition leader have urged the public not to support the referendum initiative. The required 40,000 signatures to launch the referendum must be obtained by March 26, with notification of signatures required by April 2, or the initiative fails (ref a). If the signature collection drive succeeds and a referendum must be held, Slovenia will not complete the ratification process before the Summit. If the drive fails, as appears likely, the 7-day period allowed to referendum organizers to deliver their signatures means that the earliest time that the GoS can complete its ratification of Croatia's accession into NATO would be after April 2 at 4pm, immediately prior to the April 3-4 NATO Summit at Strasbourg-Kehl. ¶5. (C) Per ref a, Slovenia's government has articulated several possible ways the situation may be resolved: 1) attempt to force a withdrawal of the referendum request through political pressure; 2) if that fails, pressure the referendum organizers to submit signatures early after March 26, i.e., before the 7-day period runs out on April 2, and 3) allow the referendum process to take its course and, assuming that not enough signatures are collected, ratify Croatia's NATO accession on April 3. ¶6. (U) Assuming that Slovenia is the last Ally to ratify Croatia's protocols of accession, several more steps must be completed before Croatia can be considered a full member (ref c): -- First, the GoS must deposit its instrument signifying acceptance of the NATO Accession Protocol for Croatia with the U.S. Department of State; -- Second, the U.S. must notify the NATO Secretary General via the U.S. Mission that all Allies have deposited their instruments accepting each NATO Accession Protocol; -- Third, the NATO Secretary General must issue formal invitations to accede to the North Atlantic Treaty to Albania and Croatia; -- Fourth, Albania and Croatia must complete their own ratification procedures and deposit their instruments of Accession to the North Atlantic Treaty with the Department of STATE 00020395 002 OF 003 State; -- Fifth, the Department of State must notify the NATO Secretary General that Albania and Croatia have formally acceded to the Treaty. ¶7. (U) Normally, this series of steps would take about three weeks to complete, including NATO International Staff taking one to two days to issue the official invitations and new Allies taking 10-15 days to complete their domestic procedures through parliament and government. This year, given the likelihood of a tight timeframe, both Albania and Croatia plan to complete domestic procedures by mid-March, prior to receiving their official invitations. ¶8. (SBU) The NATO Summit at Strasbourg-Kehl will take place April 3-4. After extensive analysis of the steps required to complete the accession process, we have determined that Option 3 is not viable, as it will not allow Croatia to take its seat as a member at the start of the NATO Summit. In the case of Slovenia's depositing its instrument with Washington on the morning of April 3 per ref a, even in the best case scenario, with each step front-loaded well and the process going smoothly on April 3, we would still face the distinct and unacceptable possibility of seating a new member in the middle of the Summit, i.e., late on April 3 or on April 4, or of Croatia missing the Summit completely. ¶9. (U) ACTION LJUBLJANA: Embassy should deliver the following points to Prime Minister Pahor and other appropriate officials: -- We appreciate your success in securing a 5/6 majority in the National Assembly supporting ratification of Croatia's NATO accession. Also appreciate the government's and the opposition's many public statements and active public diplomacy underscoring support for Croatia's accession, and discouraging a referendum. -- It would be a setback and a disappointment for Slovenia's international image if Croatia does not become a member of NATO at the Summit because of this referendum drive, or if Croatia is not able to become a member at the start of the Summit, concurrent with Albania. -- We understand that you must act according to your laws and your constitution and are not asking you to do otherwise. This is a test of leadership and persuasion; it is in your strong interest to make this happen. -- The ratification timeline is very tight; any misstep could result in an embarrassing failure. We ask that you consider all legitimate possibilities to truncate the referendum process, including urging withdrawal. If that fails, we urge you to make every effort to convince the referendum organizers to submit their signatures as soon as possible after March 26. -- What options is the government considering if the SSN has not gathered sufficient signatures at the end of the 35-day period? Are there legal or political options that can require them to cease their efforts before the end of the seven-day period for submitting signatures? -- Should these efforts fail, we understand that your fallback plan is to deposit your instrument in Washington on April 3. There are several steps that still must be completed after your deposit, including the official NATO invitation and Croatia's own instrument deposit. (Note: please draw from paragraph 6 and ref c to explain exact procedures and the likely time required to complete.) -- These steps normally take about three weeks. Your fallback plan raises the expectation that the steps be completed in less than one day, on the first day of the Summit. This is unlikely to happen. -- Even in the best case scenario, we still face the untenable situation of having a new Ally seated in the middle of the 60th Anniversary NATO Summit, rather than at its start. Such a scenario would be an embarrassment. -- Therefore, we ask you to do everything possible to avoid having to wait until April 3 to deposit. April 2 is the very latest date Slovenia can deposit and still have an STATE 00020395 003 OF 003 opportunity for NATO to welcome Croatia at the Summit. -- In the event of the worst case scenario, we hope you will have the necessary steps ready ahead of time, even if that means having the Gazette publish after normal working hours. We also request that you share with us drafts of your instrument so that we can confirm they are in good order and avoid last minute problems. -- In order to help bolster your efforts, what more can be done in terms of public diplomacy or private meetings with opinion leaders to help the situation? How can we help? For example, we are willing to make an exception for DoS to have the original Slovenian instrument in hand to notify the NATO SYG of the final deposit; an electronic scanned copy is sufficient for this purpose so long as the Department is assured that the original has been dispatched to Washington. ¶10. (U) ACTION USNATO, BERLIN, PARIS, LONDON, ROME: Drawing on points in paragraph 9, Posts should inform NATO SYG and host governments of our demarche to the GoS, emphasizing our concern that Slovenia's plan to deposit on April 3 is not workable given the series of steps required to complete the accession process before the Summit. In addition, post specific points follow: FOR USNATO: -- We are making it clear to the Government of Slovenia that it must make every effort to deposit its instruments ratifying Croatia's protocols of accession by April 2 to allow Croatia to take its seat as a NATO member at the start of the Summit. This will require that the GoS find a legal way to truncate the referendum process. -- We ask that you also consider weighing in with the Slovenians, including offering engagement on the public diplomacy front if they would consider it helpful. -- While the GoS has assured us they recognize the gravity of the situation, we cannot have the embarrassment of one Ally failing to ratify Croatia or of seating a new Ally in the middle of a Summit. FOR PARIS, BERLIN, LONDON AND ROME: -- We are making it clear to the Government of Slovenia that it must make every effort to deposit its instruments ratifying Croatia's protocols of accession into NATO by April 2 to allow Croatia to take its seat as a NATO member at the start of the Summit. This will require that the GoS find a legal way to truncate the referendum process. -- We ask that you also consider weighing in with the Slovenians, including offering engagement on the public diplomacy front if they would consider it helpful. -- While the GoS has assured us they recognize the gravity of the situation, we cannot have the embarrassment of one Ally failing to ratify Croatia or of seating a new Ally in the middle of a Summit. CLINTON