(U) KUDOS FOR NCP REPORTING (C-AL9-02505)

S E C R E T STATE 132555 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2034 TAGS: PINR SU SUBJECT: (U) KUDOS FOR NCP REPORTING (C-AL9-02505) REF: A. KHARTOUM 000288 ¶B. KHARTOUM 000644 Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS SEND KUDOS FOR KHARTOUM,S REPORTING ON THE NATIONAL CONGRESS PARTY (NCP). WE FOUND REFTELS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST. GIVEN THE INSULAR NATURE OF THE SUDANESE REGIME, WE OFTEN FIND IT DIFFICULT TO FULLY ASSESS INTERNAL NCP DYNAMICS. KHARTOUM 000644 WAS ESPECIALLY USEFUL IN THAT IT PROVIDED INSIGHT INTO NCP PERCEPTIONS REGARDING ENGAGEMENT WITH THE US, WHEREAS KHARTOUM 000288 PROVIDED HIGHLY VALUABLE INFORMATION REGARDING NCP NEGOTIATING TACTICS. BOTH REPORTS WERE USED IN WRITTEN PRODUCTS FOR SENIOR POLICYMAKERS. AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT, WE WOULD WELCOME CONTINUED REPORTING ON NCP LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS, PLANS AND INTENTIONS, AND THE DECISIONMAKING PROCESS WITHIN THE REGIME'S INNER CIRCLE, PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE QUESTIONS BELOW. ¶A. (S/REL TO FVEY) HOW MANY FACTIONS ARE IN THE NCP AND WHICH INDIVIDUALS SUPPORT VARIOUS FACTION LEADERS? ¶B. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHO IS IN PRESIDENT BASHIR'S INNER CIRCLE? HOW FREQUENTLY DOES BASHIR MEET WITH THESE INDIVIDUALS? ¶C. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHO ARE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL UP-AND-COMING SENIOR LEADERS IN THE NCP OUTSIDE OF BASHIR'S IMMEDIATE INNER CIRCLE? ¶D. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT IS PRESIDENT BASHIR'S RELATIONSHIP WITH HIS VARIOUS PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS? ¶E. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT IS THE NCP'S DECISIONMAKING PROCESS? 1) (S/REL TO FVEY) HOW ARE DECISIONS TYPICALLY MADE - I.E. ARE DECISIONS MADE DURING MEETINGS OR ARE THEY MADE ON AN AD HOC BASIS? TO WHAT EXTENT IS BASHIR A CONSENSUS-BASED LEADER VERSUS A UNILATERAL DECISIONMAKER? WHO ARE THE KEY INDIVIDUALS, IF ANY, THAT MUST BE CONSULTED BEFORE A DECISION IS MADE? HOW ENGAGED IS BASHIR IN THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS OF RUNNING THE GOVERNMENT? ¶F. (S/REL TO FVEY) HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DOES FORMER NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY SERVICE (NISS) DIRECTOR SALAH GHOSH HAVE IN HIS NEW ROLE? WHAT CONNECTIONS DOES HE MAINTAIN, IF ANY, TO THE NISS? ¶G. (S/REL TO FVEY) HOW HAS THE REMOVAL OF NISS DIRECTOR GENERAL SALAH GHOSH CHANGED THE BALANCE OF POWER BETWEEN THE NISS AND THE SUDANESE ARMED FORCES (SAF)? ¶H. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT IS VICE PRESIDENT TAHA'S CURRENT RELATIONSHIP WITH PRESIDENT BASHIR AND ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT NAFIE ALI NAFIE? ¶I. (S/REL TO FVEY) HOW DO TAHA AND NAFIE INTERACT ON A REGULAR BASIS? ¶J. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT IS MINISTER OF FINANCE AND NATIONAL ECONOMY AWAD AHMED AL-JAZ'S RELATIONSHIP WITH BASHIR? ¶K. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHICH INDIVIDUALS IN THE NCP SUPPORT ENGAGEMENT WITH THE WEST? WHICH INDIVIDUALS OPPOSE IT? TO WHAT EXTENT DO THEY SUPPORT/OPPOSE ENGAGEMENT? ¶L. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT WERE THE DETAILS OF NEW NISS DIRECTOR GENERAL MOHAMMED ATTA AL-MOULA ABBAS'S INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES DURING THE NORTH/SOUTH CIVIL WAR? WHAT WERE HIS TIES TO THE ARAB MILITIA? ¶M. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHO ARE THE MOST INFLUENTIAL LEADERS IN THE SECURITY SERVICES? WHAT ARE THEIR ETHNICITIES AND WHO ARE THEY ALIGNED WITH IN THE NCP? ¶N. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT ARE BASHIR'S LONG-TERM PLANS FOR DEALING WITH THE ICC INDICTMENT? HOW DOES THE ICC INDICTMENT INFLUENCE HIS PLANS FOR EVENTUAL RETIREMENT? ¶O. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT IS VICE PRESIDENT TAHA DOING SINCE THE ICC ARREST WARRANT WAS ISSUED AGAINST BASHIR? HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DOES HE CURRENTLY HAVE WITH BASHIR? WHAT ARE HIS CURRENT PORTFOLIOS AND ACTIVITIES? ¶P. (S/REL TO FVEY) TO THE EXTENT POST HAS ACCESS TO THIS INFORMATION, WHAT IS THE HEALTH STATUS OF PRESIDENT BASHIR, VICE PRESIDENT TAHA, AND NAFIE ALI NAFIE? WHAT, IF ANY, CHRONIC ILLNESSES OR CONDITIONS ARE THEY BEING TREATED FOR? ¶Q. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT ARE THE CORRUPT ACTIVITIES, IF ANY, SENIOR NCP OFFICIALS OR THEIR FAMILIES ENGAGE IN? ¶R. (S/REL TO FVEY) WHAT ARE THE INDICATIONS OF PLANS FOR A COUP D'ETAT BY LEADERS WITHIN THE INNER CIRCLE, SECURITY SERVICES, OR ARMED FORCES? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL9-02505 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON