(C/NF) PRD/MEXICAN LEFT (C-AL9-02542)

S E C R E T STATE 129202 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV MX SUBJECT: (C/NF) PRD/MEXICAN LEFT (C-AL9-02542) REF: A. MEXICO 003121 ¶B. MEXICO 003174 ¶C. MEXICO 003173 Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE ASSESSING EFFORTS AMONG MEXICAN LEFTIST POLITICAL PARTIES, SPECIFICALLY THE PARTY OF THE DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION (PRD),TO UNIFY AT THE LOCAL/STATE/FEDERAL LEVEL AND THE IMPACT THAT SUCH UNIFICATION MAY HAVE ON THE 2010 AND 2012 ELECTIONS. WE WOULD WELCOME MORE SPECIFIC INSIGHT INTO HOW POTENTIAL UNIFICATIONS/DIVISIONS AMONG THE MEXICAN LEFT MAY AFFECT THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, IN LIGHT OF THE PRD'S STRONG SECOND PLACE FINISH IN THE 2006 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. THIS TYPE OF REPORTING IS KEY TO OUR ANALYSIS AND WE WOULD GREATLY VALUE POST'S INSIGHT INTO THE FOLLOWING TOPICS AND QUESTIONS, AS TIME AND RESOURCES ALLOW. ¶A. (U) INTERNAL PRD ¶B. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRD MEMBERS ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR (AMLO),MARCELO EBRARD, JESUS ORTEGA, ALEJANDRO ENCINAS, AND JUAN RAMON DE LA FUENTE? 1) (S/NF) TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THESE INDIVIDUALS WORKING TOGETHER OR UNDERCUTTING ONE ANOTHER? HOW MUCH SUPPORT DO THEY HAVE WITHIN THE PRD AND AMONG THE SMALLER LEFTIST PARTIES (PT AND CONVERGENCIA)? WHAT IS THE PERCEPTION AMONG THE RANK-AND-FILE MEMBERS OF AMLO AND EBRARD? WHAT OTHER GROUPS--UNIONS, SOCIAL MOVEMENTS, ETC.--DO THEY CONSIDER TO BE AMONG THEIR SUPPORTERS? 2) (S/NF) WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PRD BLOC IN THE SENATE AND THE PRD DEPUTIES IN THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES? HOW MUCH COORDINATION IS THERE IN TERMS OF STRATEGY? WHAT ARE THE KEY LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES OF THE PRD BLOC? HOW DIFFERENT ARE THEY BETWEEN THE SENATE AND CHAMBER? HOW DO PRD LEGISLATORS INTEND TO PUSH THEIR AGENDA ITEMS? ¶C. (U) PRD CAMPAIGN 1) (S/NF) WHAT ARE THE OPINIONS WITHIN THE PRD PARTY ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF A UNIFIED EFFORT FOR THE 2010 AND 2012 ELECTIONS? TO WHAT EXTENT IS THERE CONSENSUS ON A LEGISLATIVE AGENDA OR PLATFORM FOR THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS? DOES THE PRD/MEXICAN LEFT INTEND TO RUN ON NATIONAL AND/OR LOCAL ISSUES? 2) (S/NF) WHAT ARE THE PRD'S CAMPAIGN PLANS? WHAT ARE THE PRD'S PLANS FOR RUNNING IN COALITION WITH THE NATIONAL ACTION PARTY (PAN) IN ANY OF THE STATE ELECTIONS? ON WHICH ISSUES DOES THE PAN AND THE INSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTIONARY PARTY FEEL THAT THEY CAN WORK WITH THE PRD/MEXICAN LEFT? 3) (S/NF) WHAT IS THE MOOD WITHIN THE PRD FOR THE 2010 GUBERNATORIAL RACES? WHERE ARE THEY FOCUSING THEIR CAMPAIGN EFFORTS? TO WHAT EXTENT IS THE PRD OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DEFENDING ITS ONE GOVERNORSHIP IN ZACATECAS? 4) (S/NF) HOW ARE THE FINANCES OF THE PRD, GIVEN THAT ITS DISMAL PERFORMANCE IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS RESULTED IN DECREASED FUNDING FROM THE GOVERNMENT? WHAT PLANS DOES THE PRD HAVE TO ATTRACT NEW FUNDS? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL9-02542 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON