(U) KUDOS FOR KHARTOUM REPORTING (C-AL9-02503)

S E C R E T STATE 129199 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV SU SUBJECT: (U) KUDOS FOR KHARTOUM REPORTING (C-AL9-02503) Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS SEND KUDOS TO KHARTOUM FOR THE EXCELLENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REPORTING THAT IT CONSISTENTLY DISSEMINATES. POST'S REPORTING IS INSIGHTFUL AND INFORMATIVE, AND HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY CITED IN BOTH BRIEFINGS AND WRITTEN PRODUCTS FOR SENIOR POLICYMAKERS. ANALYSTS RECENTLY CONDUCTED A STRATEGIC REVIEW OF THEIR ASSESSMENTS REGARDING A NUMBER OF SUDAN-RELATED TOPICS, DURING WHICH A NUMBER OF QUESTIONS WERE IDENTIFIED THAT CONTINUE TO BE OF INTEREST. THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF CABLES THAT WILL BE SENT OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS REFLECTING THESE QUESTIONS. AS TIME AND RESOURCES ALLOW, WE WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE ANY ASSISTANCE POST CAN OFFER IN SHARING INSIGHTS ON THE TOPICS BELOW. MANY THANKS, AND REGARDS FROM WASHINGTON. ¶2. (U) TOPIC 1: GOVERNMENT OF SOUTHERN SUDAN (GOSS) INTERNAL DYNAMICS ¶3. (S/NF) POST HAS PROVIDED ROBUST COVERAGE OF THE SUDAN PEOPLE'S LIBERATION MOVEMENT (SPLM)*-SPECIFICALLY KHARTOUM 001015, KHARTOUM 001673, KHARTOUM 001212*-AND THESE CABLES, WHICH WERE USED IN A RECENT PRODUCT FOR SENIOR POLICYMAKERS, WERE ESPECIALLY HELPFUL IN GAUGING WHICH COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT (CPA) ISSUES, SUCH AS THE REFERENDUM LAW AND THE DEFINITION OF AN ABYEI RESIDENT, WERE STILL DRIVING SPLM ACTIVITY IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE NATIONAL CONGRESS PARTY (NCP). FURTHER REPORTING ON THIS TOPIC WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED, PARTICULARLY ON THE CURRENT DIFFERENCES, CONFLICTS, LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS, LINES OF THINKING, AND STRATEGIES WITHIN THE SPLM. ¶A. (S/REL FVEY) WHO ARE KIIR'S CLOSEST ADVISERS AND HOW ARE SPLM DECISIONS MADE? ¶B. (S/REL FVEY) WHO LEADS THE VARIOUS FACTIONS WITHIN SPLM AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO THEY HAVE OVER THE PARTY DECISION-MAKING? TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THERE INDIVIDUALS WITHIN THE SPLM VYING FOR POWER AND/OR TALKING ABOUT LAUNCHING A POWER GRAB FOLLOWING SOUTHERN SECESSION? ¶C. (S/REL FVEY) WHAT LEVERAGE DO SOUTHERN GOVERNORS CURRENTLY HOLD WITH THE GOSS? ¶D. (S/REL FVEY) HOW PREVALENT IS CORRUPTION IN THE SOUTH, AND WHICH INSTITUTIONS ARE MOST AFFECTED? WHAT ARE GOSS PLANS TO COMBAT BUREAUCRATIC CORRUPTION AND WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THOSE EFFORTS? ¶E. (S/REL FVEY) TO WHAT EXTENT IS THE SPLM MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR ELECTIONS, IMPROVING INFRASTRUCTURE AND INSTITUTIONS, OR PLANNING FOR A REFERENDUM? 1) (S/REL FVEY) WHAT TYPE OF ELECTION OUTREACH AND EDUCATION IS THE SPLM PROVIDING TO SOUTHERN SUDANESE? 2) (S/REL FVEY) HOW IS THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMITTEE FACILITATING THE PLANNING AND OPERATIONS FOR VOTER REGISTRATION, BALLOT PREPARATION, AND OTHER KEY ELECTION MILESTONES? ¶F. (S/REL FVEY) FOLLOWING THE JULY 2009 ABYEI BORDER RULING, WHAT IS THE SPLM'S PERCEPTION OF ONGOING NORTH-SOUTH BORDER DEMARCATION, AND WHAT PLANS DOES THE SPLM HAVE FOR ANTICIPATING NCP POLITICAL MANEUVERING ON BORDER ISSUES AND DISPUTES? ¶G. (S/REL FVEY) WHAT TRIPS, PLANS, AND MEETINGS IS THE SPLM ORGANIZING WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES SUCH AS UGANDA, KENYA, AND ETHIOPIA? HOW DOES THE SPLM VIEW ITS CURRENT TIES WITH THESE COUNTRIES? ¶H. (S/REL FVEY) WHAT ARE THE PERCEPTIONS OF POPULATIONS IN NUBA MOUNTAINS/SOUTH KORDOFAN AND BLUE NILE TOWARD THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS IN 2010 AND THE REFERENDUM ON SOUTHERN SECESSION IN 2011? WHAT ABOUT ABYEI? ¶I. (S/REL FVEY) WHAT ARE THE DYNAMICS OF THE INCREASED INTERETHNIC FIGHTING IN SOUTHERN SUDAN? 1) (S/REL FVEY) WHICH GROUPS ARE THE PRIMARY COMBATANTS AND WHAT ARE THEIR MOTIVATIONS? 2) (S/REL FVEY) FROM WHERE/WHOM ARE THEY OBTAINING WEAPONS? 3) (S/REL FVEY) WHAT HAS BEEN THE GOSS RESPONSE? 4) (S/REL FVEY) WHAT IS THE STATUS OF THE GOSS DISARMAMENT PROGRAM? HOW IS IT BEING PERCEIVED AMONG SOUTHERN ETHNIC GROUPS AND MILITIAS? ¶4. (U) PLEASE CITE C-AL9-02503 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON