(U) BULANI POLITICS AFFECTING MOI PERFORMANCE

S E C R E T STATE 125727 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2034 TAGS: PINR IZ SUBJECT: (U) BULANI POLITICS AFFECTING MOI PERFORMANCE (C-IA9-02350) Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S/NF) IN SUPPORT OF SENIOR US POLICYMAKERS, WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE SEEKING TO ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE POLITICAL PRESSURES ON IRAQ'S INTERNAL SECURITY HEADING INTO A PERIOD OF VULNERABILITY DURING ELECTION SEASON AND GOVERNMENT FORMATION. SPECIFICALLY OF INTEREST ARE THE POLITICAL PRESSURES AFFECTING THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR (MOI) AND THE OTHER GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ (GOI) SECURITY AGENCIES. JAWAD KARIM AL-BULANI, AN AMBITIOUS SHIA POLITICIAN, HAS BEEN MINISTER OF INTERIOR SINCE JUNE 2006. IN 2008, PRIME MINISTER NURI AL-MALIKI RELIED HEAVILY ON BULANI WHEN MALIKI BEGAN CRACKING DOWN ON MILITANTS ACROSS IRAQ, BUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO SUBSEQUENTLY FRAYED WHEN BULANI'S POLITICAL AMBITIONS BECAME MORE APPARENT. BULANI'S INCREASED FOCUS ON HIS POLITICAL PARTY AHEAD OF THE NATIONAL ELECTION, AGGRAVATED RIVALRY WITH MALIKI, AND PRESSURES FROM OTHER IRAQI AUTHORITIES ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR RELATIVE REPUTATIONS HEADING INTO ELECTION SEASON, APPEAR TO BE HAVING AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY NEGATIVE EFFECTS ON THE MOI'S ABILITY TO PERFORM CRITICAL SECURITY FUNCTIONS. ¶2. (S/NF) AS TIME AND RESOURCES ALLOW, ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE REPORTING ON HOW WIDESPREAD VIEWS ARE--INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL TO THE MOI--THAT THESE POLITICAL PRESSURES ARE HINDERING THE MOI'S PERFORMANCE, GREATER SPECIFICITY ON HOW AND WHAT CRITICAL MINISTRY FUNCTIONS ARE IMPEDED, AND INDICATIONS OF WHETHER THESE EFFECTS ON THE MOI WILL BE MORE PERMANENT IN NATURE. WE WOULD PARTICULARLY WELCOME ANY ANSWERS POST CAN PROVIDE TO THE QUESTIONS BELOW. MANY THANKS, AND REGARDS FROM WASHINGTON. ¶A. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) ARE MOI FORCES CARRYING OUT POLITICAL ACTIVITIES UNRELATED TO THEIR BASIC DUTIES AND IF SO, HOW DOES THAT AFFECT THEIR SECURITY OPERATIONS? WHAT ARE THE PERCEPTIONS OF MOI OFFICIALS REGARDING BULANI'S FOCUS ON POLITICS AND RIVALRY WITH MALIKI AS INTERFERING WITH THE MOI'S WORK INTERNALLY? ¶B. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) HOW, IF AT ALL, DOES MALIKI DIRECTLY INTERFERE IN THE MOI'S RESOURCES, PERSONNEL, OR OPERATIONS? ¶C. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) PLEASE PROVIDE DETAILS OF ANY ACTIONS TAKEN AGAINST BULANI ALLIES. ¶D. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) ARE THERE ANY INDICATIONS OF OFFICIALS BYPASSING BULANI WHEN DEALING WITH THE MOI? IF SO, PLEASE PROVIDE DETAILS. ¶E. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) ARE THERE ANY INDICATIONS OF BULANI MANIPULATING THE MOI'S ACTIVITIES FOR POLITICAL GAIN? IF SO, PLEASE PROVIDE DETAILS AND ESPECIALLY NOTE IF IT AFFECTS FORCES' ABILITY TO PROVIDE SECURITY. ¶F. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) WHAT ARE THE PERCEPTIONS OF THE IRAQI OFFICIALS OUTSIDE OF THE MOI WITH REGARDS TO MOI'S PERFORMANCE IN ITS CRITICAL SECURITY FUNCTIONS AND AVOIDANCE OF POLITICAL PRESSURES? ¶G. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) ARE BULANI'S POLITICS AFFECTING THE MOI'S INFLUENCE WITHIN THE GOI, SUCH AS ITS AUTHORITY RELATIVE TO OTHER SECURITY AGENCIES IN GOI OPERATIONS AND NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONS? ¶H. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) HOW ARE BULANI'S POLITICAL PURSUITS AND RIVALRIES AFFECTING PUBLIC CONFIDENCE IN THE MOI? HOW HAS PUBLIC OPINION ON THE MOI CHANGED SINCE THE PROVINCIAL ELECTION? ¶I. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) PLEASE PROVIDE DETAILS ON MOI OFFICIALS' VIEWS TOWARD BULANI'S POTENTIAL REMOVAL FROM OFFICE. WHAT SUCCESSION PLANS ARE IN PLACE? ¶J. (S/REL US, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZ) IF A SUCCESSOR TO BULANI IS NAMED, WHO WOULD GAIN FROM BULANI'S REMOVAL FROM OFFICE AND IN WHAT WAY(S)? ¶3. (U) PLEASE CITE C-IA9-02350 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON