ENDING THE STALEMATE IN THE PEACE PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STATE 119813

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2019
TAGS: IN NP PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: ENDING THE STALEMATE IN THE PEACE PROCESS

Classified By: SCA A/S ROBLAKE


1. (U) Action Request: For Embassy Kathmandu, please see
paragraphs 6 and 7. For Embassy New Delhi, please see
paragraph 8.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Nepal's peace process continues to drift,
due to political stalemate among the major political parties.
Although the Maoists have postponed their previously
announced third round of protests, the chance of violence
from accidental clashes between protestors and security
forces remains a serious concern. The Department requests
that Embassy Kathmandu and Embassy New Delhi deliver the
points below to the Government of Nepal, the Maoists, and the
Government of India, respectively.

END SUMMARY.

--------------
BACKGROUND
--------------


3. (U) On November 1, the Maoists launched a series of
demonstrations against the current Government of Nepal. The
two-week Maoist protest program was intended to force the
political parties in the governing coalition to agree to a
debate in the Constituent Assembly (CA) regarding civilian
supremacy over the Nepal Army, and to allow the formation of
a new government under Maoist leadership. The demonstrations
included a nationwide torch rally, picketing of Village
Development Committees, municipalities and district
administration offices, a Kathmandu Valley blockade, and a
demonstration of government offices at Singha Durbar. As
suggested by reported clashes on November 12 between riot
police and Maoists in Kathmandu, continued demonstrations
increase the likelihood of instability from clashes between
protesting Maoists and security forces.


4. (C) Maoist agreement to scale back their original plans
for an airport blockade suggests that they are open to
international pressure. Observers suggest that the Maoists
intend to use these demonstrations as a bargaining tool.
Moreover, the relative absence of more serious violence may
suggest Maoists are open to a compromise solution to end
Nepal's ongoing political stalemate. Similarly, Prime
Minister M.K. Nepal recently stated in public that he would
like to reach a compromise with the Maoists, noting that
cooperation among the political parties was essential to
completing the terms of the peace process. In addition, the
Maoists have decided to postpone their planned third round of
demonstrations, pending attempts to reach consensus,
according to Embassy Kathmandu reporting.


5. (C) Overall, there has been little progress in
achieving the core commitments of the peace process. The
Maoists have delayed the discharge of approximately 4,000
disqualified personnel, almost 3,000 of whom are minors.
Furthermore, three years after the signing of the CPA,
approximately 19,000 Maoist combatants remain in cantonments.
Despite the resumption of the Special Committee and the
Technical Committee meetings, no agreement has been achieved
on the future of Maoist army personnel. In addition, the
constitution drafting process is falling farther and farther
behind schedule.

--------------
SUGGESTED TALKING POINTS
--------------


6. (U) Embassy Kathmandu is requested to approach the GON to
note our concerns drawing on the following talking points:

We remain deeply concerned about the ongoing political
stalemate in Nepal, which threatens to undermine the peace
process, and increases the risk of unintended violence.

We strongly urge the Government of Nepal to demonstrate
maximum flexibility in reaching a political agreement with
the Maoists. Instead of fighting for short term political
gain, it is time for the leaders to exercise leadership and
reach consensus on completing the peace process and drafting
a new constitution.

STATE 00119813 002 OF 002


The United States and the international community remain
committed to helping the people of Nepal in their efforts to
complete the peace process. Nevertheless, the UNMIN mandate
is not indefinitely extendable, particularly without
measurable progress. With the January request for renewal of
UNMIN,s mandate approaching, there is urgent need for all
parties to work together to make demonstrable progress on the
peace process.


7. (U) Embassy Kathmandu is further requested to approach
the Maoists to convey the following talking points:

We remain deeply concerned about the ongoing political
stalemate in Nepal, which threatens to undermine the peace
process, and increases the risk of unintended violence.

We join with the UN and others in condemning the continued
shutdown of parliament and protests in Kathmandu. Such
actions are unhelpful to the peace process and raise
questions about your party's commitment to democracy.
Strikes and shutdowns have a severe, negative impact on the
people of Nepal, whom you purport to represent.

The United States would like to expand our engagement with
the Maoist party and build greater understanding. Yet, these
types of tactics only reinforce negative perceptions of your
party, and make engagement more difficult.

We strongly urge you to demonstrate maximum flexibility in
reaching a political agreement with the other main political
parties. Instead of fighting for short term political gain,
it is time for the leaders to exercise leadership and reach
consensus on completing the peace process and drafting a new
constitution.

The United States and the international community remain
committed to helping the people of Nepal in their efforts to
complete the peace process. Nevertheless, the UNMIN mandate
is not indefinitely extendable without measurable progress.
With the January request for renewal of UNMIN,s mandate
approaching, there is urgent need for all parties to work
together to make demonstrable progress on the peace process.


8. (U) Embassy New Delhi is requested to approach the GOI
to convey the following talking points:

We remain deeply concerned about the ongoing political
stalemate in Nepal, which threatens to undermine the peace
process, and increases the risk of unintended violence.

We strongly support Nepal's fledgling democracy, and reject
the continuing Maoist protest tactics. We are delivering a
message to the Maoists this week expressing our deep concern
about their behavior.

However, during this critical transition period, we believe
Nepal's political leaders must demonstrate maximum
flexibility in reaching a political agreement with the
Maoists. Without Maoist involvement in the political
process, it will be difficult to conclude the peace process
and finalize the drafting of the new constitution.

We would welcome the Government of India's views on the
situation in Nepal and the role the United States, the UN,
and the international community can play to help the parties
in Nepal overcome the current impasse.


POINT OF CONTACT


9. (U) Please contact Peter McSharry at (202) 647-1115 or
via email for any necessary further background information
regarding this action request.
CLINTON