(C/NF) KUDOS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REPORTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 114981 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV BR SUBJECT: (C/NF) KUDOS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION REPORTING (C-AL9-02274) REF: A. BRASILIA 001250 ¶B. RIO DE JANEIRO 000340 ¶C. SAO PAULO 000597 ¶D. RECIFE 000066 Classified By: ELISSA G. PITTERLE, DIRECTOR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS WISH TO EXTEND THANKS TO ALL POSTS IN BRAZIL FOR RECENT HIGH-CALIBER REPORTING ON UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN BRAZIL, INCLUDING COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENTS OF CIRO GOMES AND AECIO NEVES. WE APPRECIATED DETAILS OF NEVES'S LIKELY PLATFORM, SHOULD HE ULTIMATELY RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN EITHER 2010 OR 2014, AND DETAILS OF HIS PROBABLE INTERIM STRATEGY, SHOULD JOSE SERRA BECOME THE BRAZILIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRACY PARTY (PSDB) NOMINEE IN 2010. NEW INFORMATION ABOUT CIRO GOMES'S ELECTORAL STRATEGY--INCLUDING LULA ADMINISTRATION EFFORTS TO USE HIS CANDIDACY TO BENEFIT THE CAMPAIGN OF DILMA ROUSSEFF--WAS PARTICULARLY VALUABLE, GIVEN GOMES'S RISE IN POLLS RELATIVE TO ROUSSEFF. WE ALSO APPRECIATED THE ASSESSMENT OF THE LOOMING GOVERNANCE PROBLEM LIKELY TO EMERGE IN APRIL 2010 WHEN CANDIDATES RESIGN FROM GOVERNMENT POSTS IN ORDER TO CAMPAIGN, AND WE WELCOMED PRIVATE CONSULTANTS' ASSESSMENTS OF THE ELECTORAL PROSPECTS FOR SERRA AND ROUSSEFF. WE WILL BE ABLE TO USE INSIGHTS FROM THESE CABLES IN LEADERSHIP PRODUCTS, BRIEFINGS, CURRENT AND LONG-TERM ELECTION PRODUCTION DURING THE COMING MONTHS. SENIOR NSC OFFICIALS HAVE EXPRESSED INTEREST IN BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, EVEN AT THIS EARLY STAGE. MANY THANKS, AND REGARDS FROM WASHINGTON. CLINTON