NEXT ROUND OF U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT

S E C R E T STATE 109559 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2034 TAGS: ETTC IR KN MTCRE PARM RS TSPA SUBJECT: NEXT ROUND OF U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT TALKS REF: STATE 82572 Classified By: ISN ACTING A/S VANN H. VAN DIEPEN. REASON: 1.5(D). ¶1. (U) This is an action request. Mission Geneva, please see paragraph 4. ¶2. (S) BACKGROUND: As noted in reftel, on July 29, 2009, Acting Assistant Secretary Vann H. Van Diepen led an interagency delegation to Moscow for the first round of Joint Threat Assessment (JTA) meetings with Russian counterparts led by Ambassador Anatoly Antonov, Director for Security and Disarmament Affairs. At the July meeting, the U.S. briefed the U.S. ballistic missile threat assessment of both Iran and North Korea. The Russians were largely unresponsive and repeatedly emphasized their view that this meeting was mainly organizational, and thus Russia was not prepared to provide its own threat assessment briefing. In addition, Antonov made clear that Russia would not cooperate on the JTA until the U.S. addressed Russian concerns regarding the "Third Site" in Europe. In follow-up efforts to schedule subsequent JTA meetings, Russia continued to maintain that cooperation on the JTA was dependent on the U.S. decision regarding the "Third Site." ¶3. (S) During the October 12 meeting of the U.S.-Russia Presidential Commissions Arms Control and International Security Working Group, Under Secretary Tauscher pressed Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov to hold another meeting on our joint assessment of missile threats and secured from him a commitment to schedule one. Given Antonov's participation in the START talks, our preference would be to hold these one-day discussions in Geneva on either November 18, 19, or 20. Alternatively, we are willing to host these discussions in Washington on either December 8, 9, or 10. As Van Diepen suggested at the end of the July JTA discussions, we recommend that the Russian side study the U.S. presentations and come prepared to offer its own views of the Iranian and North Korean ballistic missile programs. The U.S. side can then react to Russia's presentations in order to develop a sense of where we agree and disagree, as well as the reasons for any disagreements. We will also be prepared to provide more compl ete responses to the issues Russia raised regarding the U.S. presentations in July. ¶4. (S) Action Request: Request Mission Geneva and, as appropriate, Embassy Moscow approach Ambassador Antonov to deliver talking points/non-paper in paragraph 5 below and report response. Talking points also may be provided as a non-paper. ¶5. (S) Begin talking points/non-paper: (Secret//Rel Russia) -- We understand and appreciate Russia's agreement to schedule the next round of joint missile threat assessment discussions. -- In keeping with the agreement reached between Under Secretary Tauscher and Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov on October 12 in Moscow, we therefore propose one day of discussions in Geneva on any of the following dates: November 18, 19, or 20. -- Alternatively, we are prepared to host these discussions in Washington on either December 8, 9, or 10. -- As you will recall from our July discussions, the U.S. provided a detailed briefing of our threat assessment regarding Iranian and North Korean missile programs. -- We hope that Russia will provide its own views of these missile programs in order to develop a sense of where we agree and disagree on our assessments. -- The U.S. will also be prepared to provide more complete responses to the questions raised by Russia during the July U.S. presentations. -- As noted in July, the U.S. sees these discussions as covering only the joint threat assessment, not the other issues contained in the Moscow Summit Joint Statement on Missile Defense. -- We look forward to continuing our cooperation on the joint threat assessment and to hearing from you soon on your preference for a date for the next joint assessment meeting so we can make the appropriate arrangements. ¶6. (U) Washington POC is ISN/MTR Ralph Palmiero (Phone: 202-647-3737). Please slug any reporting on this issue for T, ISN/MTR, ISN/MDSP, IO/GS,and EUR/PRA. CLINTON