NEXT ROUND OF U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT

S E C R E T STATE 109559

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2034
TAGS: ETTC IR KN MTCRE PARM RS TSPA
SUBJECT: NEXT ROUND OF U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT
TALKS

REF: STATE 82572

Classified By: ISN ACTING A/S VANN H. VAN DIEPEN.
REASON: 1.5(D).


1. (U) This is an action request. Mission Geneva, please
see paragraph 4.


2. (S) BACKGROUND: As noted in reftel, on July 29, 2009,
Acting Assistant Secretary Vann H. Van Diepen led an
interagency delegation to Moscow for the first round of Joint
Threat Assessment (JTA) meetings with Russian counterparts
led by Ambassador Anatoly Antonov, Director for Security and
Disarmament Affairs. At the July meeting, the U.S. briefed
the U.S. ballistic missile threat assessment of both Iran and
North Korea. The Russians were largely unresponsive and
repeatedly emphasized their view that this meeting was mainly
organizational, and thus Russia was not prepared to provide
its own threat assessment briefing. In addition, Antonov
made clear that Russia would not cooperate on the JTA until
the U.S. addressed Russian concerns regarding the "Third
Site" in Europe. In follow-up efforts to schedule subsequent
JTA meetings, Russia continued to maintain that cooperation
on the JTA was dependent on the U.S. decision regarding the
"Third Site."


3. (S) During the October 12 meeting of the U.S.-Russia
Presidential Commissions Arms Control and International
Security Working Group, Under Secretary Tauscher pressed
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov to hold another
meeting on our joint assessment of missile threats and
secured from him a commitment to schedule one. Given
Antonov's participation in the START talks, our preference
would be to hold these one-day discussions in Geneva on
either November 18, 19, or 20. Alternatively, we are willing
to host these discussions in Washington on either December 8,
9, or 10. As Van Diepen suggested at the end of the July JTA
discussions, we recommend that the Russian side study the
U.S. presentations and come prepared to offer its own views
of the Iranian and North Korean ballistic missile programs.
The U.S. side can then react to Russia's presentations in
order to develop a sense of where we agree and disagree, as
well as the reasons for any disagreements. We will also be
prepared to provide more compl
ete responses to the issues Russia raised regarding the U.S.
presentations in July.


4. (S) Action Request: Request Mission Geneva and, as
appropriate, Embassy Moscow approach Ambassador Antonov to
deliver talking points/non-paper in paragraph 5 below and
report response. Talking points also may be provided as a
non-paper.


5. (S) Begin talking points/non-paper:

(Secret//Rel Russia)

-- We understand and appreciate Russia's agreement to
schedule the next round of joint missile threat assessment
discussions.

-- In keeping with the agreement reached between Under
Secretary Tauscher and Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov on
October 12 in Moscow, we therefore propose one day of
discussions in Geneva on any of the following dates: November
18, 19, or 20.

-- Alternatively, we are prepared to host these discussions
in Washington on either December 8, 9, or 10.

-- As you will recall from our July discussions, the U.S.
provided a detailed briefing of our threat assessment
regarding Iranian and North Korean missile programs.

-- We hope that Russia will provide its own views of these
missile programs in order to develop a sense of where we
agree and disagree on our assessments.

-- The U.S. will also be prepared to provide more complete
responses to the questions raised by Russia during the July
U.S. presentations.

-- As noted in July, the U.S. sees these discussions as
covering only the joint threat assessment, not the other
issues contained in the Moscow Summit Joint Statement on
Missile Defense.

-- We look forward to continuing our cooperation on the joint
threat assessment and to hearing from you soon on your
preference for a date for the next joint assessment meeting
so we can make the appropriate arrangements.


6. (U) Washington POC is ISN/MTR Ralph Palmiero (Phone:
202-647-3737). Please slug any reporting on this issue for
T, ISN/MTR, ISN/MDSP, IO/GS,and EUR/PRA.
CLINTON