(U) QATARI SUCCESSION (C-ME9-02133)

S E C R E T STATE 107997 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV PINS QA SUBJECT: (U) QATARI SUCCESSION (C-ME9-02133) Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS CONTINUE TO HAVE A KEEN INTEREST IN REPORTING ON THE HEALTH OF QATARI AMIR HAMAD BIN KHALIFA AL-THANI AND ANY POTENTIAL THREATS TO A SMOOTH TRANSITION TO HIS SON, HEIR APPARENT TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL-THANI. WE WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE ANY INSIGHTS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND CURRENT POLITICAL AND LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS IN QATAR, IN ANTICIPATION OF POTENTIAL SUCCESSION ISSUES, AS TIME AND RESOURCES ALLOW. ¶A. (C/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) PLEASE DESCRIBE THE CURRENT HEALTH OF QATARI AMIR HAMAD BIN KHALIFA AL-THANI, INCLUDING ANY SUBSTANTIVE DETAILS OF SYPMTOMS OR CONDITIONS HE DISPLAYS. HAS THE AMIR CHANGED HIS WORK SCHEDULE DUE TO HEALTH OR OTHER CONCERNS? ¶B. (S/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) PLEASE DESCRIBE THE LEVEL OF PUBLIC AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL-THANI AS HEIR APPARENT AND FUTURE AMIR. WHAT ARE TAMIM'S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES, PARTICULARLY AS THEY PERTAIN TO CONSOLIDATING A SUPPORT BASE WITHIN AND OUTSIDE THE AL-THANI RULING FAMILY? ¶C. (S/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) WHAT IS TAMIM'S RELATIONSHIP WITH PRIME MINISTER HAMAD BIN JASIM AL-THANI? HOW MUCH OF A ROLE DOES HIS MOTHER, SHAYKHA MUZA BINT NASIR AL-MISNAD, PLAY IN TAMIM'S DECISIONMAKING? ¶D. (S/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) WHAT ROLE DO THE AMIR'S DAUGHTERS (ESPECIALLY HIND BINT HAMAD AL-THANI AND MIYASSA BINT HAMAD AL-THANI) PLAY IN GOVERNMENT? WHAT PLANS EXIST FOR THEIR FUTURE ROLES IN MINISTERIAL OR OTHER HIGH-LEVEL GOVERNMENT POSITIONS? ¶E. (C/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) IN THE EVENT OF THE AMIR'S SUDDEN DEATH, WHO ARE POTENTIAL CHALLENGERS TO THE THRONE? ARE THERE ELEMENTS WITHIN THE RULING FAMILY OR SOCIETY THAT ARE OPPOSED TO TAMIM'S RULE? ¶F. (S/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) WHAT ROLE DOES FAHD BIN HAMAD AL-THANI, ONE OF THE AMIR'S SONS, PLAY WITHIN THE RULING FAMILY OR WITHIN THE RELIGIOUS COMMUNITY IN QATAR? WHAT ARE THE INDICATIONS THAT HE WOULD ORGANIZE RELIGIOUS ELEMENTS INSIDE OR OUTSIDE QATAR TO OPPOSE TAMIM'S SUCCESSION AS AMIR? ¶G. (S/REL USA, AUS, CAN, GBR) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RULING FAMILY COUNCIL IN QATAR. ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-ME9-02133 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON