(S/NF) KUDOS FOR REPORTING ON THE SOUTHERN

S E C R E T STATE 102971 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2034 TAGS: PINR PGOV PTER YM SUBJECT: (S/NF) KUDOS FOR REPORTING ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT IN YEMEN (C-ME9-02050) REF: A. SANAA 001679 ¶B. SANAA 000430 Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS ARE FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT IN YEMEN CLOSELY AND GREATLY APPRECIATE EMBASSY SANAA'S REPORTING ON THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT, WHICH PROVIDES VALUABLE INSIGHTS INTO DEVELOPMENTS ON THE GROUND IN YEMEN. WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT ADOPTING VIOLENT TACTICS AGAINST THE YEMEN GOVERNMENT, AND REPORTING SUCH AS SANAA 001679, FACTORS HEAVILY INTO OUR ANALYSIS OF THE GOALS AND TACTICS OF THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT LEADERS. ¶A. (S/NF) WE APPRECIATE THE BIO INFORMATION ON GENERAL TAMMAH IN SANAA 000430 AND WOULD LIKE MORE INFORMATION ON HIM AND HIS RELATIONSHIP TO THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT, POST,S TIME AND RESOURCED PERMITTING. IS HE CONNECTED TO EXILED FORMER SOUTH YEMENI LEADERS OR ONLY TO SOUTHERNERS INSIDE YEMEN? ¶B. (S/NF) HOW STRONG IS THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT? FOR EXAMPLE, HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE MEMBERS OF THE MOVEMENT? PLEASE DESCRIBE THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT'S ACCESS TO WEAPONS AND THE TYPES OF WEAPONS. ¶C. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF POPULAR SUPPORT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN YEMENI GOVERNORATES? ARE THERE COMPETING FACTIONS OR TRENDS? ¶D. (S/NF) DOES GENERAL TAMMAH OR OTHER SOUTHERN MOVEMENT LEADERS HAVE CONNECTIONS TO ACTIVE ELEMENTS OF THE YEMENI MILITARY? ¶E. (S/NF) PLEASE PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE MOVEMENT'S RELATIONSHIP TO ISLAMISTS. COULD POST ALSO PROVIDE FURTHER INFORMATION ON SHEIKH TARIQ AL-FADHLI'S INCREASINGLY CENTRAL ROLE IN THE MOVEMENT AND HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER LEADERS? ARE THERE ANY CONNECTIONS BETWEEN AL-QA'IDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP) AND THE SOUTHERN MOVEMENT OR OTHER EXTREMIST NETWORKS IN THE SOUTH? HOW HAVE SOUTHERN MEMBERS OF THE ISLAH OPPOSITION PARTY RESPONDED TO THE MOVEMENT? ¶F. (S/NF) PLEASE PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE MOVEMENT'S RELATIONSHIP TO SAUDI ARABIA AND OTHER ARAB STATES, ANY PLANS THEY BELIEVE SAUDI ARABIA IS MAKING TO INFLUENCE YEMENI AFFAIRS, AND TIMING OR CONSTRAINTS EFFECTING RIYADH'S DECISIONS. ¶G. (S/NF) IF POSSIBLE, PLEASE PROVIDE INFORMATION FROM OTHER SOUTHERN MOVEMENT MEMBERS, BESIDES GENERAL TAMMAH. ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-ME9-02050 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON