(SBU) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON LEADERSHIP AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 101469 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2034 TAGS: PINR PREL HR SUBJECT: (SBU) REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON LEADERSHIP AND DEMOCRATIZATION IN CROATIA (C-RE9-01754) Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS CONTINUE TO BE INTERESTED IN PRIME MINISTER JADRANKA KOSOR AND THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2010. WE WOULD APPRECIATE ANY INFORMATION POST CAN PROVIDE ON PRIME MINISTER KOSOR AND ON ACTIVITIES WITHIN POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE RUNUP TO THE 2011 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. ANY FURTHER INFORMATION ON CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION AND SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED, AS TIME AND RESOURCES PERMIT. ¶A. (SBU) PRIME MINISTER JADRANKA KOSOR 1) (SBU) WHO ARE PM KOSOR'S KEY ADVISORS? WHICH ADVISORS ARE CLOSEST TO HER? WHO IS IN HER INNER CIRCLE? WHO ARE PM KOSOR'S ADVISORS ON BOSNIA AND WHAT ARE HER POLICIES TOWARD BOSNIA? 2) (SBU) TO WHAT DEGREE DOES SHE SUPPORT THE CREATION OF A CROAT-MAJORITY TERRITORIAL UNIT IN BOSNIA? DOES PM KOSOR SUPPORT THE UNIFICATION OF THE TWO HDZ PARTIES IN BOSNIA? HOW DOES SHE INTERACT WITH BOSNIAN CROAT LEADERS--DIRECTLY OR THROUGH ADVISORS? 3) (SBU) WHAT FOREIGN POLICY OBJECTIVES HAS PM KOSOR ESTABLISHED FOR HER GOVERNMENT? WHAT EFFORTS IS SHE TAKING TO IMPROVE RELATIONS WITH SERBIA, BOSNIA, AND CROATIA'S OTHER NEIGHBORS? 4) (SBU) WHAT IS PM KOSOR DOING TO GAIN SUPPORT AND TO STAVE OFF POSSIBLE THREATS FROM RIVALS WITHIN HER PARTY AND OUTSIDE OF HER PARTY? WHO DOES SHE VIEW AS A THREAT TO HER POSITION IN GOVERNMENT AND IN THE PARTY? 5) (SBU) WHAT ARE THE KOSOR GOVERNMENT'S REDLINES ON THE SLOVENIA-CROATIA BORDER DISPUTE? WHAT COMPROMISES IS KOSOR WILLING TO MAKE TO RESUME EU TALKS? 6) (SBU) WHAT IS THE STATUS OF PM KOSOR'S HEALTH? WHAT ARE HER POLITICAL AMBITIONS AND PAST PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCES? ¶B. (SBU) FORMER PRIME MINISTER IVO SANADER 1) (SBU) WHY DID SANADER DECIDE TO LEAVE POLITICS? WHAT ARE HIS FUTURE POLITICAL AMBITIONS? DOES HE INTEND TO RETURN TO POLITICS? TO WHAT DEGREE IS HE EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER THE CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) AND ON THE NEW GOVERNMENT? 2) (SBU) PLEASE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BIOGRAPHICAL REPORTING ON SANADER'S ADVISORS, DECISIONMAKING, AND HEALTH, AS TIME ANS RESOURCES ALLOW. ¶C. (SBU) CROATIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION (HDZ) 1) (SBU) WHAT DIVISIONS EXIST WITHIN THE HDZ? WHAT IS THE CAUSE OF THE DIVISIONS? WHERE DO PROMINENT PARTY MEMBERS STAND IN TERMS OF DIVISIONS WITHIN PARTY? WHICH HDZ MEMBERS ARE SEEKING TO CONTROL THE PARTY? WHO SUPPORTS THEM? 2) (SBU) WHAT INITIATIVES ARE NATIONALIST HDZ MEMBERS TAKING TO HAVE A GREATER VOICE WITHIN THE PARTY AND TO WHAT END? WHO IS LEADING THESE EFFORTS? WHAT ARE THEIR VIEWS ON CROATIA'S EU ACCESSION AND OTHER GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES? ¶D. (SBU) SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (SDP) 1) (SBU) WHAT EFFORTS IS THE SDP TAKING TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY IN 2010 AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN 2011? HOW DOES THE SDP VIEW ITS PROSPECTS GIVEN SANADER'S DEPARTURE? WHAT ARE THE PARTY'S PLANS ON ATTRACTING COALITION PARTNERS? 2) (SBU) WHO ARE SDP PRESIDENT ZORAN MILANOVIC'S KEY RIVALS? WHICH PARTY MEMBERS SUPPORT MILANOVIC AND WHO SUPPORTS HIS RIVALS? ¶E. (SBU) INDEPENDENTS IN 2010 ELECTIONS 1) (SBU) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INFORMATION ON INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE RUNNING AS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES FOR THE PRESIDENCY. 2) (SBU) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INFORMATION ON ZAGREB MAYOR MILAN BANDIC'S PLANS TO RUN FOR THE PRESIDENCY. ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-RE9-01754 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. CLINTON