BULGARIA: PRESIDENT PARVANOV BACKS SOUTH STREAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000043

SIPDIS

PASS TO EUR/CE TOM YEAGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: PRESIDENT PARVANOV BACKS SOUTH STREAM
AND NABUCCO; TAKES SWIPES AT GOVERNMENT ON FOREIGN AND
DOMESTIC POLICIES

Classified By: DCM Alex Karagiannis for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: President Parvanov sharply jabbed the
government in his annual security address for its lack of a
new strategic policy, failure to develop an energy policy,
and lack of a clear defense reform package. Parvanov
strongly supported both South Stream and Nabucco and called
for immediate re-start of Kozulduy 3 and 4 nuclear reactors,
shut down as part of Bulgaria's EU entry conditions.
Parvanov also raised the possibility of combining this
summer's Euro-parliamentary and national parliamentary
elections, which the governing coalition opposes, and holding
a referendum on altering the electoral system, a highly
contentious issue within his own Bulgarian Socialist Party
(BSP). Prime Minster Stanishev responded publicly by denying
rumors of a cold war between himself and the president, but
Parvanov subsequently continued his strong line in a two-part
media interview. While not seismic or new, the fissures
between the two power centers are clear and unresolved. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) In his annual Presidential lecture, Parvanov spoke
January 16 on "National Security Facing New Challenges."
Though there were few notable departures from previous
statements, Parvanov spoke with passion and asperity on key
points, taking the government to task on numerous occasions.
Looking to raise his leadership profile at large and
certainly within the Bulgarian Socialist Party, he put some
distance between himself and former protg and, now PM,
Stanishev. He sharply jabbed the government for failing to
have a comprehensive national security strategy, and
announced establishment of a research/analytic center in the
presidency, but "would not be jealous" if the government set
one up also.

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ITS ABOUT ENERGY, STUPID!
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3. (SBU) Parvanov also criticized the current BSP-led
coalition government for not creating either an active energy
policy or a clear defense package. He devoted about 40
percent of his one-hour address to energy and economic
issues. Paraphrasing former President Clinton, Parvanov said
"it's about energy, stupid." The recent gas crisis is no
commercial dispute, but a geo-strategic conflict; Bulgaria
strongly objects being held hostage by "Moscow or Kiev" or
"Washington and Brussels." He criticized Stanishev's
government for not actively pursing a concrete energy policy
(especially after the gas crisis of 2006) and other past
governments for not building a single pipeline since the
Todor Zhivkov Era. Highlighting the need to diversify routes
-- South Stream, Nabucco, Burgas-Alexandropolous,
Burgas-Vlora, and a possible LNG terminal -- he strongly
defended Bulgaria's energy deals with Russia, giving the
speech a pro-Moscow hue. He underscored that South Stream
"must become a reality," but also noted the need for
diversification of source and mentioned his trips to Central
Asia, the Caspian, and Arab countries to discuss alternative
supplies. Interestingly, he speculated about a future
possible pipeline route from Iran, though this was a short
and elliptical reference.


4. (SBU) Parvanov restated his public call to reopen
Kozluduy Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) Units 3 and 4, which he
claimed were shut down "without valid reason, under
pressure," by Brussels. Arguing that Bulgaria was an
exporter of electricity before the closure, it caused a
"permanent energy deficit in South-East Europe." Parvanov
again cited a loose interpretation of Article 36 of
Bulgaria's Accession Treaty (which could allow for the
reopening in the event of a regional crisis). He took a
swipe at the Saxe-Coburg Gothe Government (2001-2005)(now
part of the coalition government) -- for hastily closing the
energy chapter of Bulgaria's EU Accession treaty, and not
negotiating more favorable terms. (Parliament subsequently
voted in favor of re-opening the two reactors, a clearly
populist ploy in an election year. PM Stanishev has been
more muted, recognizing EU realities. But if nothing else,
calls to re-open Kozluduy ((echoing Slovakia,s earlier calls
to re-open its own shut reactors)) is a bargaining chip for
additional EU compensation.
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DEFENSE ISSUES
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SOFIA 00000043 002 OF 002




5. (SBU) Beating a familiar drumbeat that Bulgaria is a
predictable and reliable partner, Parvanov praised Bulgaria's
completed and successful mission in Iraq, emphasizing that
Bulgaria will continue to participate in overseas mission.
Touting his role as Commander-in-Chief, he called for urgent
modernization of the armed forces. With an unveiled swipe at
the government's handling and key features of a new Defense
and Armed Forces Act, Parvanov opposed the bill as now
constituted (especially regarding the MOD and General Staff
duties),noting the importance of guaranteeing the political
neutrality of the armed forces and their preservation as an
institution. He dismissed the government's defense program,
slamming the 2015 Revised Plan as not a "clearly formulated
policy" to achieve a proper balance of objectives, resources,
structure and personnel strength. The President turned
briefly to other national security agencies, citing the
Ministry of Interior and State Agency for National Security,
where the government's performance was not especially strong.


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DOMESTIC THEMES
--------------


6. (C) Parvanov presented himself above the political fray,
criticizing Parliament by asking for a change in the current
political model, and more collective responsibility from the
MPs rather than just passing laws that serve certain groups
or people. He hinted that Euro-parliamentary and national
elections be held on the same date (which the government,
most notably the Bulgarian Socialist Party, or least the
PM,s faction, opposes as it would likely work to its
disadvantage). And he alluded to his idea to alter the
existing proportional electoral law (which BSP and its main
coalition partner strongly oppose and which in practice would
be hard to implement). Parvanov called on political parties
to rally behind and agree on the country's key priorities,
including energy projects, regardless of the next government.
A few days later, Parvanov used a radio interview to sharpen
his electoral remarks to hold both the European Parliament
and the National Assembly election on the same day. And he
urged his former party, the BSP, to support holding a
referendum on the introduction of the majoritarian element in
the vote. He then used a two part newspaper interview to
amplify the main themes of his speech, taking the government
to account on energy, national security, the economy and
domestic policy.


7. (C) Comment: Although the Bulgarian constitution limits
the powers of the presidency, Parvanov traditionally uses his
annual speech to promote the prestige of the institution.
With the government still reeling from the recent gas crisis,
protests, and the global financial slump, Parvanov took
advantage to boost his political star and take swipes at the
BSP-led government headed by his former protg to highlight
that it has not done enough, especially during the recent gas
crisis. The subsequent back-and-forth comments between
Parvanov and Stanishev -- where the PM inter alia was obliged
to deny that a cold war exists between them -- only confirmed
that political space between them is widening and deepening,
at least for now. End Comment.
McEldowney