BULGARIA: BORISSOV SWALLOWS HARD, ASSUMES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000377 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA: BORISSOV SWALLOWS HARD, ASSUMES RESPONSIBILITY Classified By: Ambassador McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The big winner of Bulgaria's July 5 national elections, Sofia Mayor Boyko Borissov, has always been more interested in power than responsibility. His landslide victory (48 percent of parliamentary seats) and the implosion of the Socialist party have now made his ascent to Prime Minister inevitable. In private discussions with the Ambassador, Borissov replaced his public swagger with sober concern over the burden he is about to assume. Eager for U.S. support and assistance, Borissov is looking to advance the bilateral partnership wherever possible. He is also determined to combat the legacy of corruption that he inherits from the current coalition government and is selecting a cabinet of international technocrats that are known for both competence and integrity. If he stays on this track, the next Bulgarian government may well prove to be a partner of good intent and real capability. END SUMMARY. BORISSOV'S "GANG OF AMERICANS" ¶2. (C) Conscious of the need to surround himself with experienced policy experts and managers, Borissov is building his cabinet around a core of well-known and respected Bulgarians with strong ties to the United States and Europe. He will not announce the cabinet officially until after the new Parliament convenes on July 14, but he previewed his leading candidates. His choice to lead his team is Kristalina Georgieva, currently World Bank Group Vice President and Corporate Secretary. A World Bank economist and manager since 1993, Georgieva will, according to Borissov, "oversee everything" and have "all the same responsibilities as me." In practice, we expect Georgieva to be the administrative workhorse, responsible for coordinating policy and administrative issues, leaving Borissov free to focus on politics and big-picture decision making. ¶3. (C) Borissov has publicly announced his intention to tap another World Bank veteran, Simeon Dyankov, as his Finance Minister. A 13-year employee at the World Bank HQ in Washington, Dyankov will be tasked with rejuvenating the Bulgarian economy and coordinating IMF assistance. Dyankov earned both his B.A. and Ph.D. degrees at U.S. universities and his wife is a U.S. citizen. ¶4. (C) Many of Borissov's other prospective ministers are young, forward-thinkers with strong ties to the United States and Europe. Rossen Plevneliev, the current treasurer of the American Chamber of Commerce is expected to become Minister for Regional Development. Borissov's Interior Minister will be his long-time confidant Tsvetan Tsvetanov, a good embassy contact, with a long track record of cooperation with U.S. law enforcement. Borissov also floated several possible names for Foreign Affairs and Defense, all of whom are good embassy contacts with extensive U.S. and European ties. RESTORING BULGARIA'S CREDIBILITY ¶5. (C) Borissov said economic policy and reform of the government's investigative services and judicial system will be his top priorities. He is focused on the need to restore Bulgaria's credibility in the eyes of European and global institutions. His economic team is already in discussions with the IMF on how to best shield the Bulgarian economy from a further economic downturn and resolve the budget shortfalls left by the outgoing government. ¶6. (C) As a former Chief Secretary of the Interior Ministry, Borissov is focused on law enforcement and said he laments the poor state of Bulgaria's institutions. He promised to improve the functioning of DANS (Bulgaria's intelligence and investigative service) and the Ministry of Interior as a whole by strengthening cooperation with the United States and other international partners, empowering specialized teams to go after drug traffickers and financial crimes and removing political protection from organized crime figures. His goal is to ensure Bulgaria has the "complete trust of the United States" and that its law enforcement intuitions are "first class partners" of their U.S. counterparts. As part of this process he seeks to restore Brussels' confidence in Bulgaria, so that suspended EU funding can resume. GERB TO RULE AS MINORITY GOVERNMENT? ¶7. (C) Borissov's party, GERB, will control just over 48 per cent of the seats in the next parliament, dwarfing the next largest party, the outgoing Socialists, who will control just 16 per cent. Although 48 per cent does not give GERB an SOFIA 00000377 002 OF 002 outright majority, two fringe parties, the ultra-nationalist Ataka Party and the mysteriously well-funded, Order, Law and Justice Party have already pledged to support a GERB government from the outside. ¶8. (C) GERB's natural partner, the center-right Blue Coalition, received only six per cent of the parliamentary seats and are unpopular with a large segment of the population, so Borissov is still weighing the merits of a formal coalition. He said he will meet with the leaders of the Blue Coalition to discuss options, but it is clear he is negotiating from a position of strength and will only bring the Blues into government if they are willing to accept a very minor role. Borissov mentioned he was willing to offer them no more than a single ministry, such as Justice, Health or Labor and Social Policy. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Borissov's cabinet choices are great news. Defying critics who suggested he would appoint only cronies to top positions, he has made it clear that he desires the closest relationship possible with the United States and is aware that he needs outside expertise to restore Bulgaria's credibility on rule of law issues. His government will face very difficult challenges, especially on the economic front, with sky-high voter expectations and a tightly restricted budget. Still, it appears that the team being formed will be stronger and more capable of tackling these issues than any we could have expected prior to the election. Moreover, given the strong pro-U.S. leanings of Borissov and much of his team, we will be well positioned to work with the new government. McEldowney