BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GERB WINS BIG, CENTER-RIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000357

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2019
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GERB WINS BIG, CENTER-RIGHT
COALITION LIKELY

Classified By: Ambassador Nancy Mceldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: In a clear signal for change and a turn
to the right, Sofia Mayor Borissov's GERB party scored a
victory over the incumbent Socialist party in the July 5
national elections. Voters punished the ruling coalition
(including ethnic-Turkish MRF and ex-King Simeon's NMS, which
failed to cross the 4 percent barrage) for widespread
corruption, damaged relations with the EU, and failure to
deal with the economic crisis. Borissov vowed to make
Bulgaria a "new country," prosecute corrupt figures in the
previous government, improve relations with the EU and seek
IMF assistance with the economic crisis. GERB won nearly
half the seats in parliament, and will likely form a
coalition with the center-right Blue coalition and other
individual deputies. Presdent Parvanov announced he would
convene the new parliament on July 14, and government
formation may take place as early as the end of July. The
new government will be strongly pro-West, and with many GERB
members relatively new to politics, it will look to us for
guidance on a range of issues. End Summary.

Surprise Margin of Victory
--------------

2. (SBU) GERB won a strong victory of 39.7 percent of the
vote plus 26 majority seats for a total 116 deputies in
Bulgaria's 240 member parliament, only five short of a
majority. BSP won only 40 seats. GERB had always been the
front runner over BSP by margins of 5-10 percent. Undecided
voters at the last minute came out to give GERB a 20 percent
margin. Voter turnout was an impressive 60.2 percent, as the
angry electorate repudiated the BSP. Exit polls indicated a
protest vote against the incumbent government, cast for the
ruling coalition's main opponent as opposed to Ataka or one
of the smaller protest parties. Another factor many voters
cited was MRF leader Ahmed Dogan's arrogant and offensive
statements last week claiming to "control those who control
the power." With MRF's reputation for blatant corruption,
for many the statement was a last straw. A bigger surprise
than the margin over BSP is GERB's near sweep of the 31
majority mandate districts ) GERB 26 and MRF 5. BSP
expected to dominate the new districts, but Borissov,s
tactic of running candidates actually resident in the
districts paid off handsomely.

Also Rans
--------------

3. (C) BSP fell nearly 50 percent from its 2005 score to
hit a near historic low of 17.72 percent, hardly enough to be
a strong opposition leader. Party hardliners will use the
defeat to try to force PM Stanishev out of the party
leadership. MRF with its disciplined (and intimidated)
electorate improved on its 2005 performance with 14.47
percent plus 5 majority seats for a total of 38 seats. Its
main nemesis Ataka did as expected with 9.37 percent, 21
seats. New party Order Law and Justice squeaked in with 4.1
percent, 10 seats. The Blue Coalition won 6.73, 15 seats,
enough to combine with GERB for a decent 131 majority. The
other new party Lider and ex-King Simeon's NMS failed to
cross the threshold. In a positive development, the
notorious Galevi Brothers and others awaiting trial who ran
for office to get immunity all lost in their election bids.

Fresh Faces, Old Faces
--------------

4. (SBU) As a young party, GERB lacks experienced cadre and
has sought to attract respected professionals, such as World
Bank economists Simeon Dyankov and Kristalina Georgieva for
senior governmental or advisory positions. The Blue
Coalition parties UDF and DSB will be a source of experienced
bureaucratic talent, another reason to include them in the
coalition. With a combined total of 131 seats, a GERB-Blue
coalition may seek to add to its numbers by attracting
otherwise respectable deputies away from OLJ and Ataka; if
not formally then on a case-by-case basis.

Opportunities
--------------

5. (C) Borissov ran on a campaign of rooting out
corruption, warning government officials to "be afraid, be
very afraid" if they participated in corruption. Borissov
will want to move quickly to clean up the country's
administration and reform the Ministry of Interior and
judiciary to convince the EU that the GOB is finally
attacking corruption to stave off further sanctions. He has
also pledged to cut and reduce the size of ministries, slash
budget spending, and begin talks with the IMF on July 6 to
avert financial crisis. We will push GERB to develop a
coherent plan, both to get off on the right footing and to
begin tackling longer-term problems.

McEldowney