BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GERB WINS BIG, CENTER-RIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000357 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2019 TAGS: PGOV BU SUBJECT: BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GERB WINS BIG, CENTER-RIGHT COALITION LIKELY Classified By: Ambassador Nancy Mceldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a clear signal for change and a turn to the right, Sofia Mayor Borissov's GERB party scored a victory over the incumbent Socialist party in the July 5 national elections. Voters punished the ruling coalition (including ethnic-Turkish MRF and ex-King Simeon's NMS, which failed to cross the 4 percent barrage) for widespread corruption, damaged relations with the EU, and failure to deal with the economic crisis. Borissov vowed to make Bulgaria a "new country," prosecute corrupt figures in the previous government, improve relations with the EU and seek IMF assistance with the economic crisis. GERB won nearly half the seats in parliament, and will likely form a coalition with the center-right Blue coalition and other individual deputies. Presdent Parvanov announced he would convene the new parliament on July 14, and government formation may take place as early as the end of July. The new government will be strongly pro-West, and with many GERB members relatively new to politics, it will look to us for guidance on a range of issues. End Summary. Surprise Margin of Victory -------------- ¶2. (SBU) GERB won a strong victory of 39.7 percent of the vote plus 26 majority seats for a total 116 deputies in Bulgaria's 240 member parliament, only five short of a majority. BSP won only 40 seats. GERB had always been the front runner over BSP by margins of 5-10 percent. Undecided voters at the last minute came out to give GERB a 20 percent margin. Voter turnout was an impressive 60.2 percent, as the angry electorate repudiated the BSP. Exit polls indicated a protest vote against the incumbent government, cast for the ruling coalition's main opponent as opposed to Ataka or one of the smaller protest parties. Another factor many voters cited was MRF leader Ahmed Dogan's arrogant and offensive statements last week claiming to "control those who control the power." With MRF's reputation for blatant corruption, for many the statement was a last straw. A bigger surprise than the margin over BSP is GERB's near sweep of the 31 majority mandate districts ) GERB 26 and MRF 5. BSP expected to dominate the new districts, but Borissov,s tactic of running candidates actually resident in the districts paid off handsomely. Also Rans -------------- ¶3. (C) BSP fell nearly 50 percent from its 2005 score to hit a near historic low of 17.72 percent, hardly enough to be a strong opposition leader. Party hardliners will use the defeat to try to force PM Stanishev out of the party leadership. MRF with its disciplined (and intimidated) electorate improved on its 2005 performance with 14.47 percent plus 5 majority seats for a total of 38 seats. Its main nemesis Ataka did as expected with 9.37 percent, 21 seats. New party Order Law and Justice squeaked in with 4.1 percent, 10 seats. The Blue Coalition won 6.73, 15 seats, enough to combine with GERB for a decent 131 majority. The other new party Lider and ex-King Simeon's NMS failed to cross the threshold. In a positive development, the notorious Galevi Brothers and others awaiting trial who ran for office to get immunity all lost in their election bids. Fresh Faces, Old Faces -------------- ¶4. (SBU) As a young party, GERB lacks experienced cadre and has sought to attract respected professionals, such as World Bank economists Simeon Dyankov and Kristalina Georgieva for senior governmental or advisory positions. The Blue Coalition parties UDF and DSB will be a source of experienced bureaucratic talent, another reason to include them in the coalition. With a combined total of 131 seats, a GERB-Blue coalition may seek to add to its numbers by attracting otherwise respectable deputies away from OLJ and Ataka; if not formally then on a case-by-case basis. Opportunities -------------- ¶5. (C) Borissov ran on a campaign of rooting out corruption, warning government officials to "be afraid, be very afraid" if they participated in corruption. Borissov will want to move quickly to clean up the country's administration and reform the Ministry of Interior and judiciary to convince the EU that the GOB is finally attacking corruption to stave off further sanctions. He has also pledged to cut and reduce the size of ministries, slash budget spending, and begin talks with the IMF on July 6 to avert financial crisis. We will push GERB to develop a coherent plan, both to get off on the right footing and to begin tackling longer-term problems. McEldowney