BULGARIA: VOTE FRAUD 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 000342

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PASS TO EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: VOTE FRAUD 2009


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Corruption in Bulgaria is deep-seated,
but post-transition elections have generally been free and
fair. The last two cycles have produced more extensive
electoral fraud. This year, it is more widespread and
sophisticated, reaching levels in which vote buyers can
fine-tune results across the country. NGOs estimate 10-16
percent of votes in the recent European Parliament (EP)
elections were "controlled." Government counter-actions have
had minimal effect and Bulgarians still seem to regard vote
fraud as they do other forms of corruption, part of life they
can do nothing about. The practice will not affect the
balance between the major parties in the July 5 elections,
but may seriously affect the smaller parties they need to
form a coalition, and bring a greater number of unsavory
characters into the parliament and possibly the government.
END SUMMARY.

VOTES FOR SALE
--------------

2. (SBU) A staggering number of the Bulgarian electorate is
willing to sell its vote. In a poll conducted by the
Bulgarian branch of the Open Society Institute, 6 percent of
Bulgarians think that vote buying is normal and permissible
in any circumstance, 15 percent are more inclined than not to
sell their vote, and 14 percent are hesitant but would not
rule out selling their vote. The average price per vote is
50 euros, but can vary widely depending on the region or
circumstances. Prices are substantially lower in the
northwestern regions of the country and nearly twice as high
in the central and southern regions. In some poorer
communities, most notably Roma districts, votes can sometimes
be bought for as little as BGN 5 or some grilled meat. In
smaller communities, vote buyers may buy votes by the
hundreds, as legislation allowing public access to records
makes it easy for vote buyers in small municipalities to
verify the way clients have voted.


3. (SBU) According to data compiled by the
Citizens'Coalition for Free and Democratic Choice, roughly
16.4 percent, or about 400,000 votes were either purchased or
controlled in the EP elections. Police stated that they
recieved complaints about vote buying from across the
country, particularly in the areas around Plovdiv, Montana,
Vidin, Pazardjik, and Sofia.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE
--------------

4. (SBU) The GOB has tried to combat vote buying through
amendments to its criminal law code, but legislation thus far
is not comprehensive. In theory, as of April 2009 anyone
found to be implicated in a vote buying scheme would be
investigated by the State Agency for National Security, the
Interior Ministry, and the Prosecutor's Office. Offenders
could also be subject to a prison sentence of 1-3
years as well as a fine between BGN 1,000 and BGN 10,000. In
more serious cases an offender can be sentenced up to 6 years
in jail and a BGN 2,000 fine. During the EP elections
earlier this month, only 5 cases out of 71 registered with
police actually went to court.

EXPECTIONS FOR VOTE BUYING
--------------

5. (SBU) According to Transparency International's Bulgaria
surveys: 25 out of 100 Bulgarians would sell their votes
during the upcoming general elections to any party that
offered them money. Twenty-seven percent say they would
accept such offers because they need money, while 13 percent
claim they would take the money but vote for another party,
as voting is secret. According to the same TI survey, 20.9
percent of Roma, 7.7 percent of Turks, and 2.9 percent of
Bulgarian voters are willing to sell their vote.

VOTING ABROAD
--------------

6. (SBU) On June 17, the MFA established 258 polling places
(there were 433 in 2005) abroad, almost half of which are
located in Turkey. Many political parties cry foul, pointing
to 123 polling stations in Turkey to serve the approximately
240,000 Bulgarians living there (in 2005 there were 76) but
only three polling stations in Greece, where 380,000
Bulgarians live and only one in Illinois where 220,000
Bulgarians reside. Four years ago there were 50 polling
places in the United States and now there are
15; there were 33 in Spain and now there are 16. Opposition
parties and local NGOs alike demanded to know if the MFA
lacks resources to monitor and manage the overseas vote, and
suggest that the MFA supports a predetermined outcome of the
vote in Turkey (which will likely vote for the MRF, a junior
partner in the current government).


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CONTROLLED OR CORPORATE VOTE
--------------

7. (SBU) Local experts predict an increase in the corporate
vote, i.e., pressure on workers to vote for a certain party
under the threat of dismissal. LIDER is the party that
raised the most serious doubts for vote buying and controlled
voting. Even though there is no formal evidence of such
activity, there are two marked trends in voter support that
justify these doubts. LIDER won almost 147,000 votes in the
regions of Burgas, Kyustendil, Vratsa, Pernik, and Stara
Zagora. LIDER's connections to these regions are the
businesses of energy oligarch and informal party leader
Hristo Kovachki. A Bulgarian NGO, Elect on Your Own, stated
that industrial workers had been threatened to vote for
certain political parties or else they would be fired --
pointing out that most cases were in areas near Kovachki's
plants. Local media and NGOs state that in addition to votes
from Kovachki's employees, LIDER has a disproportionately
high number of Roma supporters. According to an exit poll
conducted by Alpha Research, a surprising 10 percent of Roma
voted for the LIDER party during the MEP election.


8. (SBU) Agricultural networks have been established in
favor of political parties. Large Agricultural companies
will only buy from small producers if the small producers
vote for certain parties. This is commonly associated with
the MRF.

VOTER TOURISM
--------------

9. (SBU) According to Antony Galabov of the Civil Society
Coalition for Free and Democratic Elections, "voter tourism,"
both external and internal, will also appear in this
election. This method was typically used by the MRF in
busing supporters from Turkey to vote in Bulgaria. A newer
type of voter tourism is what Galabov coined "internal
tourism," in which parties bus or send supporters from
smaller districts to larger voting districts -- such as Sofia
-- to ensure higher votes, especially in the single seat
majoritarian districts.

CLASSIC VOTE BUYING AND COUNTING FRAUD
--------------

10. (SBU) According to the recent TI survey, the most common
form of vote buying, 45 percent, is offering cash in front of
election polls. The same survey showed that showed that 20
percent of vote buying incidents involved payments of delayed
salaries, either in the wake of the election or during
Election Day, while 15 percent of vote buying was in the form
of giving away food or other goods.
According to Galabov, "Roma bosses" use personal possessions
for collateral so that people are obligated to vote how they
are told. Local media reports note that voters prove their
vote by taking a mobile phone picture of their filled-in
ballot or the vote-buyer may provide the individual with a
filled-in ballot, in exchange for an empty ballot to be
brought back on election day.


11. (SBU) Owing to anomalies and weaknesses in Bulgaria's
election laws, how votes are counted can also be manipulated.
Ballots can be taken to sick or infirm voters, not all CEC
members need to be present when ballots are cast in those
circumstances and not all need be present when boxes are
opened in small towns. NGOs argued for opening ballot boxes
at regional levels to ensure better oversight, but did not
prevail. One TI contact noted it was cheaper to buy the
local election commission than to buy individual votes.

OBSERVERS
--------------

12. (SBU) Bulgaria's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has
registered 19 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe (PACE) for the July 5 parliamentary
elections. The OSCE will deploy a core team in Sofia and 12
long-term observers seconded by OSCE participating states as
well. The Bulgarian Civil Society Coalition for Free and
Democratic elections will send 500 election
observers to polling stations across the country. These
numbers are too few to capture the breadth and depth of the
problem. Moreover, enforcement of vote buying legislation
has not inspired confidence even when cases have been clearly
identified.


13. (SBU) SUMMARY: Vote buying here will be more
widespread, more sophisticated and more pernicious
than before and certainly higher than EU norms. It will
distort the race by boosting the strength of smaller parties
necessary for coalition formation. And it will feed citizen
cynicism of the integrity of the electoral process and
integrity of outcome. Without vigorous preventive measures

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and enforcement, this shapes up as Bulgaria,s dirtiest
post-transition election. END SUMMARY.

McEldowney