BULGARIA: VOTE FRAUD 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 000342 SENSITIVE SIPDIS PASS TO EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BU SUBJECT: BULGARIA: VOTE FRAUD 2009 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Corruption in Bulgaria is deep-seated, but post-transition elections have generally been free and fair. The last two cycles have produced more extensive electoral fraud. This year, it is more widespread and sophisticated, reaching levels in which vote buyers can fine-tune results across the country. NGOs estimate 10-16 percent of votes in the recent European Parliament (EP) elections were "controlled." Government counter-actions have had minimal effect and Bulgarians still seem to regard vote fraud as they do other forms of corruption, part of life they can do nothing about. The practice will not affect the balance between the major parties in the July 5 elections, but may seriously affect the smaller parties they need to form a coalition, and bring a greater number of unsavory characters into the parliament and possibly the government. END SUMMARY. VOTES FOR SALE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A staggering number of the Bulgarian electorate is willing to sell its vote. In a poll conducted by the Bulgarian branch of the Open Society Institute, 6 percent of Bulgarians think that vote buying is normal and permissible in any circumstance, 15 percent are more inclined than not to sell their vote, and 14 percent are hesitant but would not rule out selling their vote. The average price per vote is 50 euros, but can vary widely depending on the region or circumstances. Prices are substantially lower in the northwestern regions of the country and nearly twice as high in the central and southern regions. In some poorer communities, most notably Roma districts, votes can sometimes be bought for as little as BGN 5 or some grilled meat. In smaller communities, vote buyers may buy votes by the hundreds, as legislation allowing public access to records makes it easy for vote buyers in small municipalities to verify the way clients have voted. ¶3. (SBU) According to data compiled by the Citizens'Coalition for Free and Democratic Choice, roughly 16.4 percent, or about 400,000 votes were either purchased or controlled in the EP elections. Police stated that they recieved complaints about vote buying from across the country, particularly in the areas around Plovdiv, Montana, Vidin, Pazardjik, and Sofia. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The GOB has tried to combat vote buying through amendments to its criminal law code, but legislation thus far is not comprehensive. In theory, as of April 2009 anyone found to be implicated in a vote buying scheme would be investigated by the State Agency for National Security, the Interior Ministry, and the Prosecutor's Office. Offenders could also be subject to a prison sentence of 1-3 years as well as a fine between BGN 1,000 and BGN 10,000. In more serious cases an offender can be sentenced up to 6 years in jail and a BGN 2,000 fine. During the EP elections earlier this month, only 5 cases out of 71 registered with police actually went to court. EXPECTIONS FOR VOTE BUYING -------------- ¶5. (SBU) According to Transparency International's Bulgaria surveys: 25 out of 100 Bulgarians would sell their votes during the upcoming general elections to any party that offered them money. Twenty-seven percent say they would accept such offers because they need money, while 13 percent claim they would take the money but vote for another party, as voting is secret. According to the same TI survey, 20.9 percent of Roma, 7.7 percent of Turks, and 2.9 percent of Bulgarian voters are willing to sell their vote. VOTING ABROAD -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On June 17, the MFA established 258 polling places (there were 433 in 2005) abroad, almost half of which are located in Turkey. Many political parties cry foul, pointing to 123 polling stations in Turkey to serve the approximately 240,000 Bulgarians living there (in 2005 there were 76) but only three polling stations in Greece, where 380,000 Bulgarians live and only one in Illinois where 220,000 Bulgarians reside. Four years ago there were 50 polling places in the United States and now there are 15; there were 33 in Spain and now there are 16. Opposition parties and local NGOs alike demanded to know if the MFA lacks resources to monitor and manage the overseas vote, and suggest that the MFA supports a predetermined outcome of the vote in Turkey (which will likely vote for the MRF, a junior partner in the current government). SOFIA 00000342 002 OF 003 CONTROLLED OR CORPORATE VOTE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Local experts predict an increase in the corporate vote, i.e., pressure on workers to vote for a certain party under the threat of dismissal. LIDER is the party that raised the most serious doubts for vote buying and controlled voting. Even though there is no formal evidence of such activity, there are two marked trends in voter support that justify these doubts. LIDER won almost 147,000 votes in the regions of Burgas, Kyustendil, Vratsa, Pernik, and Stara Zagora. LIDER's connections to these regions are the businesses of energy oligarch and informal party leader Hristo Kovachki. A Bulgarian NGO, Elect on Your Own, stated that industrial workers had been threatened to vote for certain political parties or else they would be fired -- pointing out that most cases were in areas near Kovachki's plants. Local media and NGOs state that in addition to votes from Kovachki's employees, LIDER has a disproportionately high number of Roma supporters. According to an exit poll conducted by Alpha Research, a surprising 10 percent of Roma voted for the LIDER party during the MEP election. ¶8. (SBU) Agricultural networks have been established in favor of political parties. Large Agricultural companies will only buy from small producers if the small producers vote for certain parties. This is commonly associated with the MRF. VOTER TOURISM -------------- ¶9. (SBU) According to Antony Galabov of the Civil Society Coalition for Free and Democratic Elections, "voter tourism," both external and internal, will also appear in this election. This method was typically used by the MRF in busing supporters from Turkey to vote in Bulgaria. A newer type of voter tourism is what Galabov coined "internal tourism," in which parties bus or send supporters from smaller districts to larger voting districts -- such as Sofia -- to ensure higher votes, especially in the single seat majoritarian districts. CLASSIC VOTE BUYING AND COUNTING FRAUD -------------- ¶10. (SBU) According to the recent TI survey, the most common form of vote buying, 45 percent, is offering cash in front of election polls. The same survey showed that showed that 20 percent of vote buying incidents involved payments of delayed salaries, either in the wake of the election or during Election Day, while 15 percent of vote buying was in the form of giving away food or other goods. According to Galabov, "Roma bosses" use personal possessions for collateral so that people are obligated to vote how they are told. Local media reports note that voters prove their vote by taking a mobile phone picture of their filled-in ballot or the vote-buyer may provide the individual with a filled-in ballot, in exchange for an empty ballot to be brought back on election day. ¶11. (SBU) Owing to anomalies and weaknesses in Bulgaria's election laws, how votes are counted can also be manipulated. Ballots can be taken to sick or infirm voters, not all CEC members need to be present when ballots are cast in those circumstances and not all need be present when boxes are opened in small towns. NGOs argued for opening ballot boxes at regional levels to ensure better oversight, but did not prevail. One TI contact noted it was cheaper to buy the local election commission than to buy individual votes. OBSERVERS -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Bulgaria's Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has registered 19 members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) for the July 5 parliamentary elections. The OSCE will deploy a core team in Sofia and 12 long-term observers seconded by OSCE participating states as well. The Bulgarian Civil Society Coalition for Free and Democratic elections will send 500 election observers to polling stations across the country. These numbers are too few to capture the breadth and depth of the problem. Moreover, enforcement of vote buying legislation has not inspired confidence even when cases have been clearly identified. ¶13. (SBU) SUMMARY: Vote buying here will be more widespread, more sophisticated and more pernicious than before and certainly higher than EU norms. It will distort the race by boosting the strength of smaller parties necessary for coalition formation. And it will feed citizen cynicism of the integrity of the electoral process and integrity of outcome. Without vigorous preventive measures SOFIA 00000342 003 OF 003 and enforcement, this shapes up as Bulgaria,s dirtiest post-transition election. END SUMMARY. McEldowney