BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GERB LEADS IN LAST LAP, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000341

SIPDIS

PASS TO EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GERB LEADS IN LAST LAP, BUT
NO CLARITY ON POSSIBLE GOVERNING COALITION

Classified By: ambassador nancy mceldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the homestretch of a cynical and
uninspiring campaign for July 5 parliamentary elections,
Bulgaria's parties are targeting the 25 percent undecided
vote that holds the balance of power. Voter distrust and
disgust are sky high, but turnout may yet reach traditional
50-60 percent levels. Vote buying and fraud are at
post-transition peaks, both in scale and perniciousness.
OSCE and local NGO's will have monitors and observers in
place. Sofia Mayor Borissov's center-right GERB leads the
pack, with the ruling BSP socialists running a tired
second. The corruption tainted and reviled ethnic-Turkish
MRF and ultra-nationalist Ataka are in a close race for
third and fourth, with MRF set to again wield a king-maker
role in coalition formation. Four other parties stand a
decent chance to break the four percent barrage. If so,
coalition formation could be protracted. A weak and
divided government is likely irrespective of whatever
coalition emerges. END SUMMARY.

THE BAD AND THE UGLY
--------------

2. (C) Bulgaria's parties have run ugly and cynical
campaigns largely devoid of ideas, ideology, principles,
policies or platforms. They have run stealth campaigns,
avoiding mass rallies, and even TV spots, going instead for
retail politicking. They have concentrated on rural and
small urban centers. With approximately 25 percent of
voters likely to decide in the last three or four days,
there is a desperate race to connect. A last minute TV and
spending blitz is now underway. Though virtually all
parties have committed against vote buying, widespread
fraud is likely (septel).

WHAT TO WATCH
--------------

3. (C) Three important elements:

-- Turnout: The larger the turnout, the less impact vote
buying will have, especially for the smaller parties
struggling to climb over the four percent barrage. More
important than actual numbers: whose voters stay home. In
the past two elections, center-right voters left the
field. If they come out this time around, the conservative
Blue Coalition and GERB will do well.

-- Vote buying: MRF is the master, with BSP and shady
businessman Kovachki's LIDER also having the muscle and
organization to manipulate voters. This will not
appreciably impact GERB and BSP vote totals nationally but
the smaller parties need every vote. MRF and BSP have the
skills to slide voters to districts where a few hundred or
thousand votes will shift the balance, important for
ex-king Simeon's NMS and the disreputable Order, Law and
Justice (OLJ) party, widely seen as a BSP creation to
siphon protest votes from GERB.

-- The 31 majoritarian districts: This first-time, unusual
system of mixed 31 single member majoritarian districts and
201 proportional seats has tilted the playing field away
from GERB and the center-right. LIDER and OLJ have muddied
the waters by running on cynical anti-corruption, pro-EU
platforms designed to draw voters away from BSP and more so
from GERB. The population base of districts varies widely,
with urban areas that trend right having many more voters
than rural areas that trend BSP and MRF. As a consequence,
BSP and MRF have natural advantages at winning more single
member seats than would ordinarily be the case under a
proportional system.

THE STANDINGS
--------------

4. (C) Polls consistently show GERB comfortably ahead and
perhaps pulling away from BSP, a mid-30Qs to mid-20Qs
polling range. Borissov has run an erratic campaign,
sending conflicting signals on whether he would become
prime minister, baffling supporters. But revulsion against
the ruling coalition is helping GERB. MRF leader Dogan was
caught on video describing himself as the key power
broker. His unapologetic defense of manipulating contracts
and favors will not hurt MRF but has sapped BSP and boosted
GERB and Ataka. GERB plans a last minute push, with
Borissov more visible and vocal. It needs to stretch the
margin from BSP into the mid-teen range to pull off a
coalition with only a few parties.


5. (C) BSP tried to run on its economic performance (now
OBE'd as the crisis hits) and attacking Borissov
personally, which hasn't worked. It's pulling out the

SOFIA 00000341 002 OF 002


stops to get more than its old, rural, poor constituency.
Those prospects are uncertain. PM Stanishev faces a stark
future if BSP falls far behind GERB. He may be saved only
because BSP will not be able to agree on a compromise
successor given the deep factional and party baron splits.


6. (C) MRF will draw at the 10 percent and above range.
Ataka will do the same as they symbiotically help each
other. Perhaps no more than 15-20 percent of the vote
remains for the other four parties. NMS and LIDER are
flirting with the four percent barrage. The Blue Coalition
is just above and OLJ is scraping by.

SPINNING SCENARIOS
--------------

7. (C) Mathematically, a GERB-BSP coalition is the only
two party grouping that can get more than 51 percent of the
seats. But political, personal, and practical issues make
this complicated, though the alternative is a second round
of elections if the coalition formation process completely
collapses.


8. (C) GERB-center-right coalition: Possible, but they do
not have the seats if current projections hold, even if NMS
joins them.


9. (C) BSP led coalition: It would take a motley mix of
four or even five parties, including MRF. Internal
cohesion and external integrity would be suspect;
corruption would flourish. A new brain drain could well
ensue.


10. (C) Technocrat or "program government:" Parliament
approves a cabinet of technocrats acceptable to all sides.
President Parvanov reportedly favors this option to enhance
his influence. Advantage: parties avoid responsibility
when the economic crisis hits full force. Disadvantage: no
true responsibility/accountability; a past technocratic
government was among Bulgaria's most corrupt.


11. (C) COMMENT: MRF will hold enough seats to complicate
any negotiations. The outlook for a strong, decisive
coalition is iffy at best. The durability and logevity of
any coalition will be suspect, when Bulgarian can
ill-afford political instability. Any government will
immediately face tough and unpopular economic choices and
be confronted with a bloated, inefficient and risk averse
bureaucracy that lacks administrative capacity. As the
race winds down, Bulgarians are intent on sending a message
of angry frustration, but parliament will be a muddled mess
and any coalition weak and brittle. END COMMENT.

McEldowney