BULGARIA'S JULY 5 GENERAL ELECTIONS: NUTS AND BOLTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000305

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S JULY 5 GENERAL ELECTIONS: NUTS AND BOLTS

Ref: (A) SOFIA 264, (B) SOFIA 278


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Bulgarians go to the polls July 5 to elect 240
members of the unicameral parliament for a four-year office term.
This year the MPs are elected through a newly-introduced "mixed"
electoral system, in which 31 MPs are elected from districts on an
individual, first-past-the-post basis. The remaining MP's are
elected via a proportional system, based on party strength. Parties
must win a minimum four percent of the nationwide vote to enter
parliament. Local NGOs will deploy roughly 500 observers, mostly
students, and OSCE/OHDIR roughly 20; a prime target is Bulgaria's
growing and increasingly sophisticated vote buying. The Central
Electoral Commission is expected to announce preliminary results of
the July 5 vote within several hours of polls closing. Final
results are due within seven days. The President convenes the first
session of the new parliament within a month after the vote. He
also taps, generally within a few weeks, the leader of the largest
party as PM-designate to form a government; if that fails, the
mandate slides to the leader of second largest party tally. For the
third try, the President may chose among any of the remaining
parties. The process can be protracted and last several months. A
"technocratic government" is possible if all parties agree; the
constitution is silent on a minority government but in practice it
would be hard to piece and hold together, let alone to govern. The
incumbent government continues on a lame-duck basis until its
successor is sworn-in. Handicappers predict up to eight parties may
break the threshold; if so, government formation will be messy and
ugly. END SUMMARY

THIS YEAR'S LINEUP
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2. (SBU) Bulgaria's unicameral parliament (the National Assembly)
adopts legislation, approves the PM and his ministers, exercises
control over the government, and sanctions deployment of troops
abroad. Twenty parties and coalitions are running in this year's
elections but only eight have a realistic chance to enter
parliament. PM Stanishev's BSP, front-runner GERB, the
predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)
and extreme nationalist party Ataka will easily cross the threshold.
The real question will be the margin between the two largest
parties (GERB and BSP) and the showing of the remaining four smaller
groups: the center-right UDF-DSB "Blue Coalition," ex-PM Simeon
Saxe-Coburg's NMS, self styled "corruption fighter" Yane Yanev's
populist Order, Law, and Justice (OLJ),and energy oligarch Hristo
Kovachki's "business party" Leader. (Ref. B)

THE NEW "MIXED" ELECTORAL SYSTEM
--------------

3. (U) The 240 members of parliament (MPs) will be elected under
the new mixed electoral system that the Socialist-led coalition
government introduced only two months ago amid high-profile
political controversy. Under this system, voters will effectively
cast two ballots. One ballot is for the 209 proportional system
seats from fixed, rank-ordered lists of parties'candidates in each
of the 31 electoral regions, and one for a majoritarian candidate in
each region. Each district is allocated a number of seats in
parliament based on population. On party lists, voters cannot
change the candidates' rank order or add or delete names, and in
effect cast their vote for the party rather than the individual.
Parties and coalitions must win a minimum four percent of the
nationwide vote to enter parliament. Seats are then allocated to
the parties in the electoral district in the same ratio as the
distribution of votes in the district. Votes of parties not passing
the threshold are divided among the winners according to their
percent of the vote. For the 31 MPs elected under the majority
system, parties nominate one majoritarian candidate for each
district. A plurality wins the seat.

ELECTION RULES
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4. (U) The election is organized and supervised by a Central
Electoral Commission (CEC),whose 25 members are nominated by
political parties represented in the national and European
parliaments. Elections are preceded by a three-week campaign, which
kicked off June 13. Campaigning is forbidden on election day.
Polling stations open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. The voting age
is 18. According to official data, there are 6.9 million eligible
voters in Bulgaria (population approximately 7.3 million),but CEC
officials acknowledge these numbers need updating and the true
figure is probably about one million fewer. Polling stations are
set up in Bulgarian diplomatic and consular missions abroad and in
other locations at the discretion of the ambassador/consul. In
countries where there are no missions voting could be arranged if at
least 100 citizens declare their desire to vote. Bulgarian
legislation does not allow absentee ballots -- citizens must cast
their vote in person. The Foreign Ministry proposed 252 polling
stations in 62 countries. The largest number is in Turkey (123),5
in the U.S. Many Bulgarians who are ethnic Turks and who now live
in Turkey are likely to return and vote (overwhelmingly for the MRF,
prompting charges by other parties of machine politics and vote
buying.)


5. (U) Exit polls are allowed but results cannot be announced
before polling stations close. Preliminary results are usually
announced by CEC within several hours after the end of voting.
Final results for parties and coalitions are published by CEC within
four days. The list of names of newly-elected MPs is announced in
seven days.

FORMING THE NEW GOVERNMENT
--------------

6. (U) The President must convene the newly elected MPs for the
first session of parliament within a month after the election.
After convening the parliament and political consultations, the
President tasks the PM-designate of the largest parliamentary group
to form a government. The parliamentary group may be a political
party, a pre-election coalition or a post-election union of
political groups that ran separately in the elections. There is no
set deadline for the President to ask the first-place group to form
a government, though it is normally within three weeks. The
incumbent cabinet operates on a lame-duck basis until its successor
is sworn in.


7. (U) If parliament fails to approve the proposed government or
the PM-designate fails to propose a cabinet within seven days of
being asked, the mandate goes to the second largest parliamentary
group. If the PM-designate of the second largest group fails to
form a government, the President, at his discretion, tasks any of
the other parliamentary groups to nominate a PM. If the third
parliamentary group's PM-designate fails to form a government, the
President appoints a caretaker PM and government, dissolves
parliament and schedules new elections within two months of the
ceasing of the powers of the preceding parliament. The government
formation process has taken roughly a month in most past
post-communist elections. But a drawn out procedure is also
possible, as the Constitution sets no deadline for the third
PM-designate to form a government, and does not specify when the
President may or may not call new elections. That decision is
apparently left to the President's discretion and so far has not
been contested. The outgoing government, for example, was formed
two months after the June 2005 elections, with heavy involvement of
the President.


8. (SBU) Another option is a "technocrat" government. If the
parties cannot form a government, they have the option to submit a
list of technocrats and experts agreed by all sides to parliament
for majority approval. Bulgaria's one experience with a technocrat
government in the 1990's was a disaster of corruption and
mismanagement. A minority government is also possible, also tried
in the 1990s. It lasted a fragile nine months and accomplished
little.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: As seen in the European Parliament elections, if
GERB does not win big and the small parties cross the threshold, as
many as eight parties could enter parliament, complicating coalition
building. The more fractious and contentious the process the
greater role the President is likely to play, as in the difficult
2005 coalition negotiations. Despite bad experience with a
technocrat government, there is more talk of going that route given
the lack of a dominant party and the need for unity to navigate the
financial crisis. END COMMENT.