BULGARIA: FROM PRISON TO PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000301

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: FROM PRISON TO PARLIAMENT

Classified By: Ambassador McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Corrupt, compromised and even recently
incarcerated candidates appear poised to enter parliament in
this summer's national elections. In the latest negative
development, a June 16 court decision freed the notorious
Galevi brothers on bail, pending their trial on racketeering
and money laundering charges. This ruling enables them to
campaign for local parliamentary seats, gaining temporary
immunity from prosecution. Meanwhile, fringe and extremist
parties hover at the threshold for parliamentary
representation. Leader (founded by shady energy boss Hristo
Kovachki) and Order, law and Justice (OLJ, founded by Yane
Yanev, a political charlatan) both have suspiciously large
and opaque funding streams and are positioned to draw votes
from the mainstream parties. The ultra-nationalist Ataka
will grab close to ten percent. Turnout by a "soft"
electorate )- notably undecided and floating voters
disgusted with politics and prone to protest parties )- may
well determine the race. While the outcome is still very
much in the air, there is a strong stench of malevolent
manipulation of the electoral system by entrenched and
unscrupulous interests. END SUMMARY.

GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD?


2. (SBU) Bulgarians had thought they had seen it all when
it comes to stacking the electoral decks. They were wrong.
Accused criminals are now brazenly running for elected office
in a transparent attempt to escape justice, taking advantage
of a constitutional provision that grants members of
parliament immunity from prosecution. Registered candidates
for Parliament are also immune from prosecution during the
3-week campaign period. The infamous Galevi brothers,
powerful mafia leaders in the town of Dupnitsa, just south of
Sofia, have registered as candidates for Parliament. Despite
blistering media commentary and national revulsion, one of
the two has a chance to win thanks to a well-oiled
vote-buying machine, coercion and local connections.

CHEAPER TO BECOME AN MP THAN BUY THEM


3. (C) The Leader party, the creation of a widely
considered corrupt businessman, is another stain on
Bulgaria's image. An energy magnate, currently being
investigated for massive tax fraud, Kovachki was ranked last
year as the second richest Bulgarian (after another reputed
crime boss) and 98th richest person in Eastern Europe. The
source of Kovachki's wealth remains a mystery; he has amassed
a mini-energy empire based on coal, suggesting ties to
criminal elements in the extractive industries sector and
insider deals with government officials and patrons. He is a
known associate of influential underworld figures involved in
various smuggling and racketeering operations. His party
claims to represent business interests and supports EU
integration and transparent government (sic).


4. (C) It is widely believed that, tired of paying bribes
to sitting MPs, Kovachki established the party as a more
direct and cost-effective way to expand his political
influence. His party gained notoriety for its vote-buying
success in local elections last year and has allegedly used
coercion to force employees at Kovachki's many business
operations to support the party. Although Leader barely
missed the threshold for a seat in the European Parliament,
polls show that the party has a realistic shot of entering
the next national parliament. With support currently
hovering around four percent, Leader could enter the
240-member parliament with perhaps 10-15 seats. If so, it
will leverage its representation to bargain its way into a
coalition government. Though none of the traditional center
right parties have much use for Leader, its vote could be the
margin for coalition formation. Leader is likely to siphon
votes from front-leading GERB to the benefit of the Bulgarian
Socialist Party (BSP) and ethnic Turkish MRF, suggesting that
there is a tacit underground alliance of interests between
them.

A "CLOWN" FIGHTS CORRUPTION?


5. (C) A new entry in the political landscape is the Order,
Law and Justice party centered on Yane Yanev, dubbed "the
clown of Bulgarian politics". Yanev rose to prominence in
recent months by making outrageous and defamatory claims
against the current government. OLJ party funding sources
are entirely unclear, though sufficient for a very slick new
office headquarters and top flight consultants. His campaign
motto is "Let's Stop Corruption," but his commitment is paper
thin. Filled with political opportunists, OLJ lacks
credibility. Most analysts believe Yanev is a creation of
the ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party designed to take votes
away from its more mainstream rival GERB. Yanev claims OLJ
has 38,000 members and a national organization, but after an

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early surge in public interest, its popularity may have
peaked. OLJ currently polls around 4.69 percent, which would
be just enough to enter parliament.

PROTEST, RADICAL VOTE BOOST ATAKA CHANCES


6. (C) The extreme nationalist party Ataka, which won two
seats in the European Parliament, is certain to enter
Parliament. Ataka is strongly and vocally anti-NATO and
anti-U.S. and relies on populist anti-government and
anti-minority rhetoric. Autocratic party leader Volen
Siderov is a well-known journalist who gained notoriety for
his outbursts in parliament. Infighting, defections, and
high-profile scandals that eroded Ataka's parliamentary group
over the past four years have not undermined Ataka's
electoral support. Portraying itself as the only real
alternative to the status quo, Ataka brands all major parties
as "political mafia." It attracts the protest vote of the
extreme left and right and draws support from people living
on the margins of society and former army and security
officers. It fills a specific electoral niche by offering
easy solutions to painful social problems and speaking openly
about sensitive ethnic issues considered taboo by the
mainstream parties.


7. (C) Over the past year, Ataka has modulated its tone in
hopes of becoming respectable enough to join the next ruling
coalition. It has shaded its anti-Western/U.S.,
anti-Turkish, and anti-Roma rhetoric, focusing instead on the
plight of the elderly and combating widespread corruption.
At the same time, Ataka maintains its rebellious image by
boycotting parliamentary sessions and sharpening its
anti-government rhetoric. It successfully exploits ethnic
Bulgarians' distaste for the ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior
coalition partner widely viewed as a vehicle for corruption.
(Ataka and MRF symbiotically use each other in galvanizing
their bases.) Despite Ataka's attempts to moderate its
message, mainstream parties consider it a coalition partner
of last resort.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Crooks and cranks are crowding the
Bulgarian political scene. While the majority of Bulgarian
voters will back traditional parties, many are so disgusted
by them that they look for alternatives and see few
attractive choices. The irony is that voter disillusionment
can translate into more miscreants entering Parliament. Low
turnout increases the impact of vote buying and elevates the
chance that small corrupt parties will do well. That would
damage Bulgaria's already tarnished image, complicate
coalition formation, increase domestic tension, and snarl
relations with us and the EU. While Bulgaria's overall
foreign policy would not appreciably change, a weak and
indecisive coalition government would face painful economic
decisions. And it would feed into more voter alienation.
That's a worst case outcome, but we should not discount it.

McEldowney