NUTS AND BOLTS OF BULGARIA'S JUNE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000226

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SIPDIS

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TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: NUTS AND BOLTS OF BULGARIA'S JUNE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: For the second time since EU accession,
Bulgarians go to the polls June 7 to elect 17 members of the
European Parliament (MEPs). Generating little public interest on
their own, the MEP elections are viewed more as dress rehearsal for
national parliamentary elections on July 5. The MEP election
campaign -- scheduled to open officially May 16, but effectively
already in full swing -- will be dominated by domestic rather than
European issues as the parties jockey for position before the real
electoral race in July. The opposition will hammer the coalition
government for widespread corruption and bungling of Sofia's
relations and reputation with the EU, while the ruling Socialists
will tout their steady handling of the economy amid global financial
turbulence. Each of the parties has stacked appealing personalities
at the top of the lists (the Socialists with FM Kalfin; the
center-right with former FM Mihailova; the king's party with popular
EU Commissioner Kuneva). Polls suggest that Sofia Mayor Boyko
Borissov's opposition party GERB will come out on top with the
Socialists running second. Expected low voter turnout will benefit
parties with dependable electorate such as the extreme nationalist
Ataka and the ethnic Turkish party MRF. END SUMMARY.

MEP ELECTION NUTS AND BOLTS
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2. (U) Bulgarians will elect 17 MEPs (down from 18 in the previous
European Parliament) for a five-year term through a proportional
representation system in which parties and coalitions put up
rank-ordered national lists of candidates. Voters cannot add or
delete names on the party lists but they may mark their preferred
candidate on the party list by checking the box opposite their name.
In practice, voters choose among slates of candidates ranked by
party headquarters and each vote is effectively for party rather
than individual. Parties must obtain one seventeenth of all valid
votes (or 5.88 percent) to participate in the distribution of the 17
seats. Seats are allocated to parties exactly according to their
share of the national vote. Votes of parties not passing the
threshold go to the other parties using the method of the smallest
remainder.


3. (U) The election is organized and supervised by a Central
Electoral Commission (CEC),whose 25 members are nominated by
political parties represented in the national and European
parliaments. The same Commission will organize both the MEP
elections and the general elections on July 5. Bulgarian and EU
citizens are eligible to run for an MEP seat if they have turned 21
years of age and if they have resided within the EU for at least two
years prior the vote.

VOTING RULES
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4. (U) Bulgarians and other EU citizens who have held official
residence within an EU state for at least three months prior to the
election date are eligible to vote in the Bulgarian MEP elections.
The voting age is 18. According to official data, there are 6.9
million eligible voters in Bulgaria, but CEC officials acknowledge
these numbers need updating and the true figure is probably about
one million fewer. Diplomatic and consular missions set up polling
stations abroad if at least 20 voters have registered with the
mission for the vote. Bulgarian legislation does not allow absentee
ballots -- citizens must cast their vote in person.

CAMPAIGNS AND FINANCING
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5. (U) The June 7 election is preceded by a three-week campaign
beginning on May 16. Campaigning is forbidden on election day but
this is the first post-communist election in which campaigning will
be allowed on the day preceding the vote. Incumbent MPs, MEPs,
members of EU bodies, and national government employees running in
the election must take a leave of absence for the campaign. Parties
finance campaigns with their own funds and with donations from
individual sponsors, which cannot top 10,000 leva (USD 6,666).
Parties are banned from receiving donations from Bulgarian and
foreign private companies, foreign individuals and governments.
Parties and coalitions are required to set up a public registry
listing sponsors of their election campaigns. The overall amount
used to finance the campaign of one candidate list cannot exceed two
million leva (USD 1.3 million). According to new election law
amendments, all campaign materials must carry a sign warning that
vote-buying and vote-selling are crimes.

POLLING AND RESULTS
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6. (U) Polling stations will open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.
Exit polls are allowed, but results cannot be announced before
polling stations close. In practice this rule is consistently
violated. The CFC usually announces preliminary results within
several hours of poll closing. The CEC announces the results for
parties and coalitions within three days of the vote and publishes
the names of the elected MEPs within five days of the vote.

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DRESS REHEARSAL FOR JULY VOTE
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7. (SBU) Generating little interest on their own, the MEP elections
are seen as more of a dress rehearsal for the national parliamentary
elections on July 5. Parties will test and fine tune tactics and
set the attack scenarios on opponents. The Bulgarian Socialist
Party (BSP),which leads the current three-party coalition, faces a
strong challenge in both elections from Sofia Mayor Boiko Borissov's
opposition GERB party. Expected low turnout (pollsters put it
around 30 percent) will benefit parties with highly dependable
electorate such as the extreme nationalist Ataka and the ethnic
Turkish party MRF. With these four parties likely to win seats, the
real question will be the performance of several smaller groups: the
center-right UDF-DSB "Blue Coalition," which has been plagued by
high-profile infighting; the populist Order, Lawfulness and Justice
party of controversial, so-called "corruption fighter" Yane Yanev,
and ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg's NMS, which has negligible popular
support, but when it galvanizes core constituencies, has pulled out
last-minute victories in the past.


8. (SBU) The parties and coalitions are topping their tickets with
some of their most recognizable personalities (many of whom will be
used as mere attention-grabbers and are unlikely to take up seats in
Brussels). In a surprise move, the Socialists named respected
Foreign Minister Ivailo Kalfin (who is not even a Socialist Party
member) to head their ticket. Another well-known face, Nadezhda
Mihailova, will lead the center-right Blue Coalition ticket. GERB's
candidate list is headed by incumbent MEP Roumyana Zheleva, who is
also said to be eyeing nomination as Bulgaria's next EU
Commissioner. The struggling party of former King and PM Simeon is
pinning its hopes for a comeback on popular EC Commissioner Meglena
Kouneva, highly regarded both at home and in Brussels.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Seen here as merely "the first round of the
general elections," the June 7 European elections themselves hold
little interest for Bulgarian voters. The results will influence
the second election, eliminating some players and boosting the
chances of others, which raises the stakes for party strategists.
Domestic issues will dominate the campaign as parties take off the
gloves to leave rivals weak and bloodied before the July race. It's
going to get ugly.
MCELDOWNEY