MACEDONIA: ETHNIC-ALBANIANS SENDING MIXED MESSAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000066 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MK SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: ETHNIC-ALBANIANS SENDING MIXED MESSAGES ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS Classified By: CDA TOM NAVRATIL FOR REASONS 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The ethnic-Albanian (e-Albanian) political leaders in Macedonia have given positive indications that they understand how critical fair and democratic municipal and presidential elections are to Macedonia,s future. They have repeatedly reassured us that their own parties will not disrupt the election process but in private do not refrain from allegations that other e-Albanian parties will create problems. (End Summary) ¶2. (C) E-Albanian political leaders in Macedonia have given positive indications that they understand how critical the presidential and municipal elections in March are after ODHIR,s August 2008 election report blamed the e-Albanian community for much of the violence that occurred during the June 2008 parliamentary elections. DUI leader Ali Ahmeti and DPA leader Menduh Thaci have cooperated publicly to advocate a peaceful environment conducive to fair, violence-free elections. On January 23 they held a one-on-one meeting in Tetovo to discuss actions they could take to ensure free and fair elections. At the meeting they both made statements to the press about the importance of these elections to Macedonia,s Euro-Atlantic integration and indicated they would work within their parties to prevent violence during the elections. On February 3, DUI and DPA also mutually agreed to limit the display of party propaganda and flags exclusively to their local branches and in front of party seats. Interparty fighting for propaganda space accounted for much of the violence that occurred in the last elections. During a recent trip to Tirana, Ahmeti and ND party leader and presidential candidate, Imer Selmani, also held an impromptu, but lengthy meeting in which they discussed ways to prevent election violence and irregularities. ¶3. (C) In private, Thaci has maintained that his party, DPA (which shouldered much of the blame for violence during the June 2008 elections),was not in a position to cause problems during the upcoming elections. Thaci pointed out that his party was decimated after its failure in the previous elections and cannot afford to be a negative actor in these elections. Surprisingly, many of his opponents also agreed with this assessment and believe DPA will not instigate problems. Most believe DPA,s singular objective in the 
upcoming elections will be to win control of the mayor,s office in Tetovo. ¶4. (C) The presidential candidates from the three primary Albanian parties have also given us their assurances that they would promote free and fair elections. New Democracy candidate Imer Selmani has taken a hard line against the tolerance of any election irregularities. From the inception of his party he has also taken the stance that his party would be a democratic, non-violent alternative to DPA and DUI. DPA candidate Mirushe Hoxha also expressed a desire to promote free and fair elections and acknowledged that as the only female presidential candidate she may be able to convey that message more effectively than the other candidates. ¶5. (C) Despite espousing positive messages about their own parties, all the Albanian leaders have been quick to predict that their opponents would stir up problems during the upcoming elections. Thaci and DUI presidential candidate Agron Buxhaku both claim that New Democracy inherited many of the DPA,s trouble makers from previous elections and assert that ND may instigate the problems during this election. Thaci claimed that he even had a hand in assuring that the worst elements of his party crossed over to ND. However, in the same conversation Thaci conveniently excused some of the known trouble makers that remain in his party, such as former Deputy Interior Minister Rafet Elmazi, as falsely accused. Gostivar,s independent mayoral candidate Rufi Osmani insisted that DUI was bussing in known criminals from Kosovo to intimidate and harass the opposition. He named Shaqir Tershana as one of these, who he alleges has been making telephone threats. (Note- Osmani,s race against DUI incumbent Nevzat Beta has already shown signs that it will be heated and dirty. In a recent meeting, Osmani presented us with a long list of wild corruption allegations against his opponent. Later, on February 12, Osmani,s candidacy was disallowed by the DUI leaning municipal election council in Gostivar for a previous crime (flying the Albanian flag and insighting a riot) and jail time that was later amnestied. Osmani is appealing the ruling.) ¶6. (C) New Democracy MP and election campaign manager, Sulejman Rushiti denied allegations that his party would bring any negative elements to the election. He gave strong SKOPJE 00000066 002 OF 002 assurances that the founding principle of his party was to get away from the election violence and irregularities promoted by DPA in the previous elections. He also asserted that his party was strongly advocating against violence in the elections and they have told their members they would not protect or defend anyone that engaged in such activities. ¶7. (C) Comment: We probably could not ask for a better public commitment from the e-Albanian party leadership. But the campaign does not formally begin until March 2, and it was a series of violent or intimidation incidents prior to June 2008 elections that foreshadowed the violence on election day. We will maintain the pressure on all parties to run a calm campaign, including travelling to those municipalities where there could be trouble. NAVRATIL