SINGAPORE SUPPORTIVE OF NEW U.S. BURMA POLICY, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000953

SIPDIS

EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA,
EAP/MLS - L. SCHEIBE,
NSC - D. WALTON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SN
SUBJECT: SINGAPORE SUPPORTIVE OF NEW U.S. BURMA POLICY, BUT
CAUTIONS AGAINST RAISING EXPECTATIONS TOO HIGH

REF: SECSTATE 100518

Classified By: CDA Daniel Shields for Reasons 1.4 (b and d).


1. (C) Summary: Burma has made several nuanced, conciliatory
gestures towards the West, and Singapore believes the timing
is right to engage Burma and nudge it along the road towards
democracy, according to the Singapore Foreign Ministry.
Singapore supports the new U.S. "carrot and stick" policy on
Burma, but cautions that we cannot expect positive change
overnight. Singapore indicated a willingness to work with
the United States on Burma, but insists that it must maintain
its appearance of neutrality, less it lose credibility with
Burmese regime. China and India have influence on Burma and
will play an important role in the effort persuade the regime
to reform, MFA told Post. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Singapore's policy on Burma suggests that
it is unrealistic to expect Singapore to take a public lead
on pushing for the goals the U.S. is pursuing, as described
reftel. However, Post believes Singapore would be willing to
use its substantial influence quietly and privately,
particularly to promote Burma's engagement with the
international community. MFA cited in our meeting the call
between Secretary Clinton and Foreign Minister Yeo and the
subsequent coordinated message Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong
delivered to Than Shwe in July, and suggested that Singapore
would be willing, on a case-by-case basis, to consider
similarly coordinating in the future. End Comment.



3. (C) EP Counselor delivered reftel demarche highlighting
the conclusion of the U.S. Burma Policy Review to MFA
Southeast Deputy Director Kamal Vaswani in a September 29
meeting.


4. (C) Vaswani replied that Singapore views positively the
Administration's policy of measured engagement with Burma.
Vaswani said Singapore was impressed with Secretary Clinton's
positive intervention at the Friends of Burma meeting.
Recounting his experiences as a Burma Desk Officer in 1997,
Vaswani noted that the debate over whether to pursue a policy
of sanctions or engagement has been going on for over a
decade, and that as Secretary Clinton had stated, the
assumption that it has to be an "either/or" proposition is a
false one, he said.


5. (C) Vaswani said the time appears ripe to engage Burma,
and that the regime has in Singapore's view, made a number of
conciliatory gestures in recent months. The Burmese regime's
willingness to meet with Senator Webb, release American
citizen John Yettaw and reduce Aung San Suu Kyi sentence
should all be considered positive gestures towards the United
States, Vaswani said. Vaswani noted with approval Burma PM
Thein Sein's decision to attend the UNGA and Foreign Minister
Nyan Win's visit to Washington, where he visited the
Jefferson Memorial and other symbols of democracy.


6. (C) The West should not underestimate such gestures, as
they reflect a very nuanced message from Burma that it has
taken heed of the international community's concerns but is
doing so within the constraints of its system, Vaswani said.
The GOB cannot be seen domestically as simply bending to
international pressure, Vaswani added.


7. (C) Vaswani said it is unrealistic to expect a free and
fair election in 2010. Positive change simply will not
happen that quickly, he said. Instead, we should initially
focus on promoting the inclusion in government of elements
besides the military. The focus should then become to "press
at the margins," Vaswani said. Stating that the West should
be willing to "grab the low-hanging fruit," Vaswani suggested
that the first step would be to develop civil society.


8. (C) Vaswani discounted the notion that any pressure could
be brought to bear on Burma either through or within ASEAN.
"Bring it up in ASEAN, and people will start to squirm in
their chairs, nothing will get done," Vaswani said. Instead,
Vaswani suggested engaging bilaterally with the Burmese.
Singapore is willing to work with the United States on Burma
issues in certain circumstances, but Singapore must continue

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to be seen as a neutral party or it would lose credibility
with the Burmese regime, Vaswani said. Vaswani suggested the
United States persuade China and India to take a greater role
in bringing around Burma, noting their strong influence in
the country.


Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
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