SINGAPORE MFA'S TOMMY KOH TALKS CHINA, SE ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 000852 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019 TAGS: PREL SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE MFA'S TOMMY KOH TALKS CHINA, SE ASIA WITH STAFFDEL LUSE SINGAPORE 00000852 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: E/P Counselor Joel Ehrendreich for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ambassador-at-Large Tommy Koh offered Staffdel Luse his views on Southeast Asian countries' relations with China, the United States, and each other in an August 17 meeting. According to Koh, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members do not fear China's rise or its investment in their natural resources, instead welcoming Chinese economic and diplomatic engagement. Japan and India have failed to engage the region as effectively as China has. Nevertheless, the United States arguably remains ASEAN's most important external partner, and there are many opportunities for U.S. development assistance to ASEAN countries. Within ASEAN, Indonesia may be starting to consider itself too important for the organization, and Malaysia remains politically volatile because of electoral shifts in the opposition's favor. Singapore does not want, and will not permit, Timor Leste to join ASEAN. End summary. A Singaporean View of China's "Peaceful Rise" -------------- ¶2. (C) Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ambassador-at-Large Tommy Koh offered Staffdel Luse a provocatively sanguine view of China's rise at an August 17 meeting. Koh noted that Chinese civilization (along with India's) is re-emerging on the world stage after 1,000 years of eclipse, and China is determined not to "screw up." He explained that he does not see China's relations with Southeast Asia in terms of a cultural or economic invasion. With combative body language very different from his usual tranquil demeanor, Koh declared, "I don't fear China. I don't fear being assimilated by China." On the contrary, he said he applauds China's investment and intelligent diplomacy in the region. He drew an analogy to Chinese engagement in Africa, where, he asserted, Africans "thank the Lord" that the Chinese are there to buy their natural resources without lecturing them about human rights and democracy as the West does. ¶3. (C) Koh disputed the idea that China is mainly interested in controlling Southeast Asia's natural resources. According to Koh, China's principal strategic objective in the region is to secure peaceful relations with the countries to its south so that it can focus on its "troubled borders" elsewhere. The current peaceful state of China-ASEAN relations is an achievement, he said, in light of the problems that existed as recently as 30 years ago, when China was funding insurgencies in ASEAN countries and lacked meaningful economic integration with the region. Though Vietnam has historical reasons to be wary of Chinese power, Koh said most countries in the region regard the prospect of a strong China with benevolence, not fear. ¶4. (C) On the other hand, the claim that Southeast Asian countries are gravitating to China is exaggerated, Koh said. Within ASEAN, there is no consensus that China is the group's most important external partner; some would assign that role to the United States, or even Japan. According to Koh, the only ASEAN country firmly within China's sphere of influence is Thailand. (Note: Koh did not explain how he arrived at this rather surprising conclusion. End note.) Although Cambodia is close to China, it is even closer to Vietnam, and it also wants better ties with the United States. ¶5. (C) Koh acknowledged that the ASEAN countries must remain united in order to manage their relationship with China effectively. He said they have been successful in this so far. For example, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines prevailed on the other seven ASEAN members to present a united front in the negotiations that led to the 2002 ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. If ASEAN fails to remain united in future dealings with China, Koh added, it will be ASEAN's own fault. "Stupid" Japan and India Are the Regional Losers -------------- --- ¶6. (C) Koh described Japan as "the big fat loser" in the context of improving ties between China and ASEAN. He attributed the relative decline of Japan's stature in the region to Japan's "stupidity, bad leadership, and lack of vision." He was equally merciless toward India, describing his "stupid Indian friends" as "half in, half out" of ASEAN. (Note: Koh has co-chaired the two meetings of the SINGAPORE 00000852 002.2 OF 002 India-Singapore Strategic Dialogue held so far. End note.) India has failed to match its rhetoric about looking to the east with corresponding actions, Koh said. Nevertheless, he added, Southeast Asia is lucky that the Chinese and Indian civilizations are re-emerging at roughly the same time. How the United States Should Engage Southeast Asia -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The United States has an important role to play in Southeast Asia, according to Koh. He said he would encourage President Obama to meet with the ASEAN leaders as a group during his November trip to the region. Koh's "wish list" for the U.S. role in Southeast Asia is topped by maintaining the strategic balance, ensuring more consistent engagement with the region as a whole, and taking ASEAN more seriously in order to help member states achieve the Millennium Development Goals. He said there are many areas in which the United States can assist Southeast Asian countries, laying particular stress on infrastructure development, but also mentioning education and the empowerment of women. Koh noted approvingly that the Obama Administration has, in his view, acknowledged that the United States cannot build democracy "directly" in another country. Indonesia's Swelling Head, Malaysia's Volatile Politics -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Addressing ASEAN's prospects over the next five to ten years, Koh said the only member country that has expressed doubt about remaining in ASEAN is Indonesia. He pointed to Indonesia's recent assertiveness in global affairs, saying that membership in the G-20 and warming relations with the United States pose a risk that Indonesia will feel "too big" for ASEAN. (Note: Koh said essentially the same thing to EAP DAS Scot Marciel in February. End note.) Koh said Indonesia's desire to project itself on the world stage may be a historical norm that was evident during Sukarno's time, went into "hibernation" while Suharto focused his attention on internal development, and is now reappearing in the post-Suharto era. ¶9. (C) Koh rated the performance of Malaysia's new prime minister Najib Razak as a "brave beginning" but added that he fears there may be skeletons in Najib's closet that will come back to haunt him. Likewise, Koh expressed reservations about opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who he said is so determined to be prime minister that he may make "Faustian bargains" to achieve that goal. Koh observed that the 2008 Malaysian general election reflected a "tectonic shift in Malaysian politics that we don't fully understand." In that election, for the first time, young urban Malays showed themselves willing to vote for political parties that did not base their identities expressly on race, he said. Timor Leste Need Not Apply to ASEAN -------------- ¶10. (C) Koh told Staffdel Luse that Timor Leste will not become a member of ASEAN as long as Singapore is a member. He said admitting Timor Leste would "take us back 30 years." ASEAN has enough problems trying to build up Burma, Laos, and Cambodia, he added. ¶11. (U) Staffdel Luse reviewed this message. Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm SHIELDS