SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA: WAITING FOR THE ODD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SINGAPORE 000656

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SN MY
SUBJECT: SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA: WAITING FOR THE ODD
COUPLE'S FINAL BOW?

Classified By: CDA Raymond Kengott for reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: In recent high-level exchanges, Singaporean
and Malaysian officials signaled a desire to improve
bilateral relations and overcome legacy disputes. Malaysia's
new Prime Minister Najib Razak made overtures perceived as
sincere in Singapore, and the two countries began talks to
implement a long-stalled resolution of a land dispute. But
in a tour of peninsular Malaysia, Singapore Minister Mentor
Lee Kuan Yew (LKY) made some controversial remarks, and his
old Malaysian rival, ex-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad,
posted insulting blog entries about his visit. Though the
mainstream press did not dwell on LKY's gaffes or Mahathir's
invective, spirited on-line reaction to both shows that the
LKY-Mahathir antipathy can still darken bilateral relations
by evoking a strong public response. Singapore has concerns
about the political vulnerability of Najib's government and
has begun to cultivate contacts with Malaysia's political
opposition. Singapore is also unsure how Malaysia's volatile
racial politics are evolving. Embassy contacts suggest
Singapore and Malaysia will struggle to enjoy a more mature
relationship until their colorful ex-leaders finally exit
public life. End summary.

Singapore and Malaysia Try to Move Forward...
--------------


2. (C) In high-level exchanges over the past two months,
Singaporean and Malaysian officials signaled a desire to
improve bilateral relations and relegate long-standing
disputes to the past. Malaysia's new Prime Minister Najib
Razak visited Singapore with several of his cabinet
ministers, and Singapore's Foreign Minister George Yeo paid a
follow-up visit to Kuala Lumpur. Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) Deputy Director for Malaysia Constance See told Poloffs
that Najib's warmth and apparent good faith during his
Singapore visit generated a sense of opportunity, even
euphoria, among politicians in both countries. Najib
broached issues of interest to Singapore - for example, the
need to modernize land transport links, possibly by building
a controversial "third bridge" connecting Singapore to Johor.
FM Yeo's subsequent Malaysia visit saw the two sides restart
talks on implementing their long-stalled 1990 Points of
Agreement on the disposition of Singapore railway land owned
by Malaysia.

...but LKY and Mahathir Revive Past Acrimony
--------------


3. (C) Meanwhile, Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew
(LKY) and a handful of Singapore cabinet officials toured
nine peninsular Malaysian states June 8-15. On this
"fact-finding" trip - his first since 2005 - LKY met with
both ruling party and opposition officials, and he made
remarks that rankled some observers. Datuk Nur Jazlan
Mohamed, an UMNO politician from Johor, said in a June 26
lecture in Singapore that the LKY visit generated "a lot of
unhappiness" in Malaysia. In his very first meeting, LKY
asked some Malaysian Chinese Association dignitaries how the
Chinese were being treated in Malaysia, and he later posed
for a photo with three Malay UMNO officials in which,
according to Nur Jazlan, it looked as if the Malaysians were
paying him homage. Dr. Ooi Kee Beng, a Malaysian opposition
sympathizer and researcher at Singapore's Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies, told Poloffs LKY annoyed many when
he appeared to link the construction of the "third bridge"
with Malaysia's willingness to sell sand to Singapore for use
in land reclamation projects, a sensitive topic. LKY also
ignited a public argument between the past (ruling coalition)
and current (opposition) chief ministers of Penang by
remarking that the state's infrastructure was inferior to
that of several other Malaysian states.


4. (C) Unable to let his 85-year-old nemesis leave Malaysia
unscathed, 83-year-old ex-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad
began sniping on his blog toward the end of LKY's visit.
Referring to LKY as the "little Emperor" of a "tiny Middle
Kingdom," Mahathir recited a litany of old irritants -
Singapore's purchase of water from Malaysia at a
controversial price, Malaysia's refusal to sell sand to
Singapore, disputes over land links between the two countries
- and sneered, "All those who met the great man from the
little country were lectured on how Malaysia should be run."
According to Nur Jazlan, Penang's Chief Minister said that is
exactly what happened in his meeting with LKY. Dr. Ooi's
Malaysian contacts told him that LKY alienated his hosts by

SINGAPORE 00000656 002 OF 003


talking instead of listening; Ooi called the visit a
"fact-dropping" rather than a fact-finding trip. Nur Jazlan
compared the two former leaders to the bickering "odd couple"
from American television. The rancor inadvertently stirred
up by LKY, together with Mahathir's catty blogging, dominated
the blogosphere's discussion of the visit, though the
mainstream press downplayed this aspect of the trip on both
sides of the causeway.

Singapore Looks Askance at Malaysian Political Developments
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Singapore's engagement with its northern neighbor
appears conditioned by uncertainty over Malaysia's political
future. According to the MFA's Constance See, Singapore is
ready to do business with Malaysia but is waiting to find out
if the Najib government will be a stable interlocutor, given
its domestic political challenges. To Nur Jazlan Mohamed and
Ooi Kee Beng, LKY's visits with several opposition
officeholders reflect a Singaporean belief that either of the
two Malaysian political coalitions could form the next
government. Although See minimized the significance of LKY's
meetings with opposition figures by noting that such
officials visit Singapore regularly, she concurred that
Singapore intends to maintain communications with leaders in
both factions, consistent with FM Yeo's July 2008 statement
that "We deal with whoever is in power." Ooi added that
LKY's visits to nine states - an unprecedented local-level
engagement by a Singapore official of his stature - had
investment as the main subject of discussion and may have
been a deliberate signal that Singapore has alternative
negotiating partners if the Malaysian federal government
proves unresponsive.


6. (C) Singapore sees Malaysia as absorbed in its own
economic problems and therefore difficult to engage on other
issues at present. Constance See said that, according to the
consensus at Singapore's MFA, Najib regards the Malaysian
economy as his primary political challenge, with foreign
policy concerns secondary at best. For this reason, she and
her MFA colleagues have modest expectations for development
of the bilateral relationship, despite Najib's recent
overtures. Singapore also worries that Malaysia's economic
policies will be politicized in a manner alien to Singapore's
technocrats. After accompanying LKY on his trip, Singapore's
Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam told the Embassy's
Treasury attache he feared the Malaysian government would
counterproductively "punish" its two largest exporting
regions for political reasons because they are under
opposition control.

Racial Politics Color the Bilateral Relationship
-------------- ---


7. (C) As a Chinese-majority, Malay-minority city-state on
Malaysia's border, Singapore pays close attention to the
racial dimension of Malaysian politics. Though LKY's
question about Malaysia's treatment of its Chinese citizens
shows this interest is not always expressed tactfully, his
meetings with opposition politicians, including
representatives of Islamist party PAS, may reflect a belief
that Malaysia's racial politics are changing. According to
Ooi Kee Beng, LKY tried to persuade Penang's Chief Minister
that young Malays are less "ethnocentric" and more liberal
than their elders. Ooi wondered aloud whether LKY's interest
in meeting PAS officials arose from a dramatic increase in
Chinese voters' support for PAS in the recent Perak
by-election, where municipalities with 90-plus percent
Chinese residents voted for the party. Ooi and Nur Jazlan
agreed that Singapore and Malaysia still view each other
through the lens of racial politics. Citing recent
uncertainty over whether Malaysia would extradite recaptured
terrorist Mas Selamat Kastari to Singapore, Ooi pointed out
the unspoken racial dimension to this bilateral issue: Mas
Selamat is an ethnic Malay as well as a Singaporean citizen,
so Singapore is loath to push for his return, and Malaysia is
reluctant to send him back.

Old Personalities Continue to Set the Tone
--------------


8. (C) Constance See told Poloffs that while the current
Prime Ministers of Singapore and Malaysia would like to put
their countries' relationship on a new footing, the bilateral
dynamic remains driven to some extent by the personalities of
the two former leaders, LKY and Mahathir. As long as this is

SINGAPORE 00000656 003 OF 003


true, opportunities to move decisively past old disputes will
remain limited, she said. (Comment: See's remarks appear to
overstate the former leaders' influence on current policy, at
least on the Malaysian side, where she unsurprisingly
apportions most of the blame for any difficulties. However,
the fact that the Singapore MFA's Deputy Director for
Malaysia proffers such a jaundiced view as her agency's
consensus is significant in itself. End comment.) Nur
Jazlan recommended putting the two men together in the same
house so they could "talk each other to death" and leave
everyone else in peace.


9. (U) Embassy Singapore previewed this cable with Embassy
Kuala Lumpur.

Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm
KENGOTT