FOO KOK JWEE OFFERS DEPUTY NIO HIS PERSONAL VIEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001243 SIPDIS EAP/MTS - COPPOLA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019 TAGS: ID PGOV PINR PREL SN SUBJECT: FOO KOK JWEE OFFERS DEPUTY NIO HIS PERSONAL VIEWS ON SINGAPORE'S NEIGHBOR Classified By: EP COUNSELOR J. EHRENDREICH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: "The next 100 days are critical for Indonesia," MFA Deputy Director for Indonesia, FOO Kok Jwee conveyed in a December 14 meeting with Deputy NIO for East Asia, Dr. Terrence Markin. Citing the KPK and Bank Century corruption scandals that are dogging Indonesia's government, Foo said that President Yudhoyono's personal popularity has not been affected despite the number of government officials implicated in scandals. Foo expressed concern that Indonesia's rapid population growth, combined with regulatory authorities passing laws with strong religious elements will lead to more intense radical Islamization in the next 5-10 years. On the economy, Foo said Indonesia's estimated 4% growth was based mostly on domestic consumption, and that food prices were not a concern at this time. Foo noted that countries in Southeast Asia which need economic help have turned to China and Japan for loans, and will not borrow from the IMF. On the topic of Indonesia's role in ASEAN, Foo downplayed Indonesia's internal debate about the value of ASEAN to Indonesia, saying that Indonesia's Foreign Minister "offered quite a passioned defense of ASEAN" at a recent conference. On Indonesia's participation in the G-20, Foo said "Indonesia speaks only for Indonesia" and cited confusion over whether the ASEAN entree into the G-20 had a voting or nonvoting role. ---SCANDAL CAUSING INDONESIA TO LOSE FORWARD MOMENTUM--- ¶2. (C) Markin met with Foo on December 14 to discuss his views on Indonesia. Markin inquired about the ability of President Yudhoyono's ("SBY") anti-corruption platform government to weather the current KPK (Komisi Pemberantasan Korupsi) and Bank Century corruption scandals. Foo, who lived in Indonesia from 2002-2006, indicated that the next 100 days would be critical for Indonesia given the number of government officials caught up in these scandals. Noting that SBY had not been personally implicated in either of the scandals, Foo felt SBY's personal popularity in Indonesia was not affected. However, Foo noted that SBY has lost the initiative to push new programs forward as he expends political capital battling political opponents. Foo said that ten years ago international observers predicted that Indonesia would break apart, but instead it forged a path on democratic modernity, Islamization, and counter-terrorism, publicly condemning Jemiyah Islamiyah. Foo said Indonesia was "still in transition," and where Singapore was pessimistic on Indonesia ten years ago, now it is very optimistic. Foo continued that at this time it is impossible to determine what type of state Indonesia will be: pluralistic or theocratic, with political space for religious minorities. ---SINGAPORE CONCERNED ABOUT INCREASE IN POPULATION AND ISLAMIZATION--- ¶3. (C) Citing a population increase of 3 million a year, Foo called the increases "a time bomb," indicating that though Indonesia could enjoy a demographic dividend in the next 15-20 years, the increasing number of unemployed young men was likely to increase violence. Foo noted that Indonesia's former family planning program, "Two is Enough," was stopped during the Asian financial crisis of 1997, when government was decentralized and moved to the provinces. ¶4. (C) Foo expressed Singapore's concern that radical Islamization is being spread throughout Indonesia, and that it "doesn't take a lot of people to be radical given the number of population." With regulatory authorities able to pass laws with strong religious elements, Foo predicted more intense Islamization in the next 5-10 years. Foo agreed that although the laws are passed, they are seldom enforced, stating that "(Indonesian) politicians use Islamic law as a panacea for bad government." Foo continued "All political parties must respect Islam, even GOLKAR and PDI-P need to respect the more pious practices that have overtaken Indonesia." Some areas, like Bali, will push back on the increasing Islamization, Foo said. ---SEES INDONESIAN ECONOMY AS STABLE FOR NOW--- ¶5. (U) Foo indicated that Indonesia was doing well economically, with estimated 4% growth based mostly in domestic consumption. Stating that all countries in the region have turned to internal stimulus measures, Foo noted that countries in Southeast Asia have agreements with China and Japan to borrow money, and "will not borrow from the SINGAPORE 00001243 002 OF 002 IMF". Foo said that with the exception of Singapore, Hong Kong, and Malaysia, which all rely heavily on exports, Southeast Asia was largely isolated from the current crisis. In response to a question about societal fractures due to increasing food prices, Foo said food prices were a matter of concern a year ago, but not now. ---INDONESIA'S ROLE IN ASEAN AND G-20--- ¶6. (SBU) Stating that SBY and Rizal Sukma, the Executive Director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, could only "punch higher if ASEAN gives them political heft", Foo said that the new Indonesian Foreign Minister Mary Natalegawa "offered quite a passioned defense of ASEAN" at a recent CSCAAP conference in front of Rizal Sukma, a critic of Indonesia's reliance on ASEAN. Foo reiterated Singapore's oft remarked view that "ASEAN is being held back by members such as Myanmar when it has nothing to do with us." ¶7. (U) Commenting on Indonesia's attendence at the G-20, and its call for a strategic partnership with the United States, Foo stated that "Indonesia speaks only for Indonesia, not ASEAN." Foo said ASEAN had its own entree into G-20, but confusion exists over whether it is a voting or nonvoting role (sic). ¶8. (U) Deputy NIO Markin did not have the opportunity to clear this cable. SHIELDS Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm