SINGAPORE ELECTION TIPPED FOR MID-2010, WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001141

SIPDIS

EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV SN
SUBJECT: SINGAPORE ELECTION TIPPED FOR MID-2010, WITH
"COOLING-OFF" DAY BEFORE VOTE

REF: A. SINGAPORE 164

B. SINGAPORE 520

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel Shields for reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) Summary. Though there has been no formal
announcement, Singapore's next general election appears
increasingly likely to take place between April and June

2010. Circumstantial evidence, such as the training of
election workers and instructions for those workers not to
take leave, points to that conclusion, according to
opposition and civil service contacts. Prime Minister Lee
Hsien Loong said he expects revised election laws to be
finished shortly after the annual budget, which Parliament
normally debates in late February or early March. In
addition to the electoral changes described in reftel B, the
Prime Minister announced that the new law will provide for a
"cooling-off" period banning campaigning on the day before
polling. An opposition party leader told Poloff the
cooling-off period will work to the advantage of the
incumbent People's Action Party because the
government-influenced local media, which will remain free to
report on electoral matters through polling day, will have
the last word for undecided voters. End Summary.

Circumstantial Evidence Points to Mid-2010 Election
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Singapore's next general election appears
increasingly likely to take place between April and June
2010, based on circumstantial evidence reported by Embassy
contacts and a newly announced timetable for electoral
legislation. Opposition politician Desmond Lim,
Secretary-General of the Singapore Democratic Alliance, told
Poloff that some of his contacts in Singapore's civil service
are receiving training as election workers. (Note: Singapore
draws on members of its civil service, who are barred from
political party membership, to staff elections. The
Elections Department, which is under the Prime Minister's
Office, designates and trains the election workers well in
advance of voting day. End note.) According to Lim, the
final batch of election workers will complete their training
by April, and the designated civil servants have been
instructed not to take leave between then and June. This
information corroborates a similar account given to Poloff by
a junior civil servant in the Ministry of Home Affairs.

New Election Law to Be Finished by March or April
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) In a newly published interview with the Straits
Times, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong revealed that he
expects a revised electoral law and accompanying
constitutional amendments to be finished shortly after the
annual budget, which Parliament normally debates in late
February or early March. The revised election law will
implement the changes PM Lee announced in May (as described
in reftel B) by guaranteeing a greater number of seats for
opposition and non-partisan members with limited voting
rights and by increasing the number of single-member
constituencies from nine to 12. If the government adheres to
the announced timetable for amending the electoral framework,
the new law could be on the books by late March or April.


4. (C) Once a new election law is in place, the government
should be able to complete the remaining pre-election
administrative steps quickly. Because the revised law is
expected to alter some electoral districts, the Prime
Minister will need to convene an Electoral Boundaries Review
Committee to determine where the new boundaries lie.
According to Kevin Tan, a law professor and constitutional
scholar at the National University of Singapore, past
elections have followed the Electoral Boundaries Review
Committee's report by as little as four weeks. Moreover, Ms.
Goh Jing Xian, Public Education and Training Manager in the
Elections Department, told Poloff that once the new
boundaries are set, the Elections Department can use the
existing electoral registers (last revised in February, as
described in reftel A) to assign voters to the new
constituencies, a relatively simple process.

Prime Minister Announces "Cooling-Off" Day Before Vote
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In addition to the electoral changes PM Lee
previewed in May, the revised electoral law will include a
24-hour "cooling-off" period before polls open. During this
period, political parties will have to suspend campaigning,
including the posting of new material on party websites. PM
Lee gave two reasons for the change: to allow voters to

SINGAPORE 00001141 002 OF 002


reflect calmly on the issues and arguments before voting, and
to minimize the risk of public disorder at the tail end of
the campaign, "particularly if the election has been an
emotional one." SDA Secretary-General Desmond Lim told
Poloff the cooling-off period will confer an advantage on the
ruling People's Action Party (PAP) over the opposition
parties. First, it will blunt the emotional appeal of the
opposition's stances on controversial issues such as
immigration and housing policy and will give Singaporeans'
pragmatic and risk-averse tendencies time to reassert
themselves before the vote. Second, the
government-influenced mainstream local media will remain free
to continue reporting on election-related matters up to and
through polling day - essentially giving the PAP the last
word in shaping the perceptions of undecided voters and
leaving the opposition powerless to respond, Lim said.

SHIELDS

Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm