SINGAPORE ELECTION TIPPED FOR MID-2010, WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 001141 SIPDIS EAP/MTS - M. COPPOLA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE ELECTION TIPPED FOR MID-2010, WITH "COOLING-OFF" DAY BEFORE VOTE REF: A. SINGAPORE 164 ¶B. SINGAPORE 520 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Daniel Shields for reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Though there has been no formal announcement, Singapore's next general election appears increasingly likely to take place between April and June ¶2010. Circumstantial evidence, such as the training of election workers and instructions for those workers not to take leave, points to that conclusion, according to opposition and civil service contacts. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said he expects revised election laws to be finished shortly after the annual budget, which Parliament normally debates in late February or early March. In addition to the electoral changes described in reftel B, the Prime Minister announced that the new law will provide for a "cooling-off" period banning campaigning on the day before polling. An opposition party leader told Poloff the cooling-off period will work to the advantage of the incumbent People's Action Party because the government-influenced local media, which will remain free to report on electoral matters through polling day, will have the last word for undecided voters. End Summary. Circumstantial Evidence Points to Mid-2010 Election -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Singapore's next general election appears increasingly likely to take place between April and June 2010, based on circumstantial evidence reported by Embassy contacts and a newly announced timetable for electoral legislation. Opposition politician Desmond Lim, Secretary-General of the Singapore Democratic Alliance, told Poloff that some of his contacts in Singapore's civil service are receiving training as election workers. (Note: Singapore draws on members of its civil service, who are barred from political party membership, to staff elections. The Elections Department, which is under the Prime Minister's Office, designates and trains the election workers well in advance of voting day. End note.) According to Lim, the final batch of election workers will complete their training by April, and the designated civil servants have been instructed not to take leave between then and June. This information corroborates a similar account given to Poloff by a junior civil servant in the Ministry of Home Affairs. New Election Law to Be Finished by March or April -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In a newly published interview with the Straits Times, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong revealed that he expects a revised electoral law and accompanying constitutional amendments to be finished shortly after the annual budget, which Parliament normally debates in late February or early March. The revised election law will implement the changes PM Lee announced in May (as described in reftel B) by guaranteeing a greater number of seats for opposition and non-partisan members with limited voting rights and by increasing the number of single-member constituencies from nine to 12. If the government adheres to the announced timetable for amending the electoral framework, the new law could be on the books by late March or April. ¶4. (C) Once a new election law is in place, the government should be able to complete the remaining pre-election administrative steps quickly. Because the revised law is expected to alter some electoral districts, the Prime Minister will need to convene an Electoral Boundaries Review Committee to determine where the new boundaries lie. According to Kevin Tan, a law professor and constitutional scholar at the National University of Singapore, past elections have followed the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee's report by as little as four weeks. Moreover, Ms. Goh Jing Xian, Public Education and Training Manager in the Elections Department, told Poloff that once the new boundaries are set, the Elections Department can use the existing electoral registers (last revised in February, as described in reftel A) to assign voters to the new constituencies, a relatively simple process. Prime Minister Announces "Cooling-Off" Day Before Vote -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) In addition to the electoral changes PM Lee previewed in May, the revised electoral law will include a 24-hour "cooling-off" period before polls open. During this period, political parties will have to suspend campaigning, including the posting of new material on party websites. PM Lee gave two reasons for the change: to allow voters to SINGAPORE 00001141 002 OF 002 reflect calmly on the issues and arguments before voting, and to minimize the risk of public disorder at the tail end of the campaign, "particularly if the election has been an emotional one." SDA Secretary-General Desmond Lim told Poloff the cooling-off period will confer an advantage on the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) over the opposition parties. First, it will blunt the emotional appeal of the opposition's stances on controversial issues such as immigration and housing policy and will give Singaporeans' pragmatic and risk-averse tendencies time to reassert themselves before the vote. Second, the government-influenced mainstream local media will remain free to continue reporting on election-related matters up to and through polling day - essentially giving the PAP the last word in shaping the perceptions of undecided voters and leaving the opposition powerless to respond, Lim said. SHIELDS Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm