LIAONING LEADERSHIP: DALIAN ON THE RISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000073

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: CH ECON PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: LIAONING LEADERSHIP: DALIAN ON THE RISE

REF: 08 SHENYANG 44

Classified By: Consul General Stephen B. Wickman. Reasons 1.4(b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the two years since Li Keqiang was
plucked from his Party Secretary (PS) post in Shenyang for
greater glory in Beijing, no one has been able to fill the
void he left behind in Liaoning Province. Two major
competitors continue to jockey for Provincial leadership -
Governor Chen Zhenggao and Dalian Mayor Xia Deren. With the
exception of Mayor Xia,s imminent move to the Dalian Party
Secretary slot, however, there have been few recent
developments. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) This is the first of a two-part report on leadership
dynamics in northeast China over the past year, with a
particular emphasis on rising stars likely bound for higher,
possibly national, office. Part one focuses on Liaoning,
part two on Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces.

LIAONING,S CENTRAL LEADERS
--------------

3. (C) Liaoning Party Secretary (PS) Zhang Wenyue is 65
years old and likely to retire later this year. During his
tenure, Zhang generally avoided the spotlight, perhaps in an
effort to enjoy his sunset years as a senior member of the
National People,s Congress. He has always been overshadowed
by stars Li Keqiang and more recently, Chen Zhenggao.


4. (C) Chen Zhenggao captured the governorship in early 2008
after vanquishing rival Luo Lin. Throughout the past year,
Chen has eagerly hogged the media limelight and
enthusiastically advertised his accomplishments. Chen
prides himself on bringing investors into Liaoning, leading
delegation after delegation to Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong
Kong, and beyond, pursuing signing ceremonies in the
billions of RMB and exhausting the municipal players he
drags in his wake. Sometimes, however, Chen fails to
deliver. Most recently, during a trip to Japan, Chen crowed
about attracting mega-yen investments in the news, only to
return empty-handed, sparking a raft of satirical blog
entries. In the past few weeks, there has even been a spate
of rumors (apparently untrue) that Chen and his bodyguard
were under investigation. Chen is clearly angling for the
Liaoning PS position, and in late 2008 was rumored to have a
shot at the Henan PS slot. Chen will probably stay put a
while longer, and at age 57 he has eight years to make it to
the top.


5. (C) Former Liaoning Deputy PS Luo Lin had gone head to
head with Chen Zhenggao for the governorship. As a
consolation prize, Luo was appointed Chairman of the
Liaoning People,s Political Consultative Conference (PPCC),
keeping him on an equal footing with Chen Zhenggao in
administrative and party rank. Luo was appointed Director
of the State Administration of Production Safety at the end
of 2008, a central government ministerial position described
by our contacts as a purely lateral move (a provincial
governorship is equivalent to a minister.) Although Luo's
new position is described as an "active volcano" and its
directors have been routinely criticized for the large
number of fatal accidents in China - one just yesterday in
Shenyang - its leaders have always been promoted. With
Luo,s China Youth League (CYL) Party background and
experience in Liaoning,s mining cities like Huludao and
Fushun, he is likely to succeed and capture more national
attention.


6. (C) Yue Fuhong, 59, moved to Liaoning to replace Luo from
Inner Mongolia in late 2008. Already designated Chairman of
the Liaoning PPCC before the Conference opened, Yue,s
election was a mere formality. Also for form,s sake, Yue
was pulled at the last minute from the obligatory annual
meeting with the assembled Consuls General here before the
opening ceremony, appearing for the first time on the dais
during the Plenary Session. A seasoned cadre from Beijing
and Inner Mongolia, Yue was Beijing Vice Mayor between 1997
and 2001 (responsible for agriculture and Huai Ro District)
and Deputy PS of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
between 2001 and 2008. His political career has been stable
and gradual, a typical example of a Chinese bureaucrat
working his way up the political hierarchy.


7. (C) When we finally met Yue for dinner on April 23, he
made it sound as if he had just landed in Liaoning.
Determined not to discuss his new position at all and
speaking in a thick Beijing accent that was impenetrable at
times, Yue regaled us with tales of Inner Mongolia and
Genghis Khan that he heard (in Chinese from his Mongolian
staff.) He seemed most proud of the joint-venture movie
being shot on location, which he personally discussed with

SHENYANG 00000073 002 OF 002


Governor Schwarzenegger when he visited California. Yue's
family remains in Beijing (his daughter is a Tsinghua grad
pursuing a career in architecture or design,) and he seems
destined to reunite with them in Beijing following this
latest promotion. With six years left before retirement and
a relatively youthful appearance, Yue has plenty of time to
burnish his image or play behind-the-scene politics.

DALIAN,S MAYOR ON THE MOVE
--------------

8. (C) The biggest news this year is Dalian Mayor Xia
Deren,s almost certain promotion to the Dalian PS position.
The Changxingdao PS told the Consul General April 15 that
Liaoning Vice Governor Li Wancai (a frequent consulate
contact) would take over as Mayor when Xia steps up - news
that was corroborated by the Japanese Consul General in
Dalian the next day. The move is interesting since Xia had
been overshadowed by former Dalian PS Sun Chunlan and
current Dalian PS Zhang Chengyin since Bo Xilai,s departure
from Liaoning. After Bo,s failed attempt to join the
central party core, Mayor Xia lost his membership in the
Liaoning Party Standing Committee. A Dalian native and
close pal of the popular Bo, Xia remains deeply loved by
most of the citizens of Dalian (we have only heard one
serious rumor about Xia and his link to an unpopular real
estate deal.) Only 54 years old, Xia has six years to make
it to clear the deputy-governor level, at which he has been
stuck despite his popularity, and a few years to climb even
higher. Xia's promotion to Dalian PS may be just what he
needs to get rolling.


9. (C) In other news, former Shenyang Vice Mayor Li Jia,s
resignation was accepted by the Liaoning People,s Congress
on January 8, 2009. Information shows that Li Jia has since
moved to Inner Mongolia as the Director of the Organization
Department and Member of the Party Standing Committee.
Although this is a lateral move to a more remote region,
Li's return to the party faithful is a guarantee of a future
stability. Rumors involving Shenyang PS Zeng Wei,s move to
the Central Government as Li Keqiang,s chief of staff proved
to be ill-founded. Zeng also has a CYL background and it is
reasonable to predict he will keep moving up the political
ladder. Our South Korean counterparts tell us that Zeng has
an excellent relationship with Korean lawmaker and National
Assembly Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Unification Committee
Chair Park Jin, who caroused with Zeng during a recent March
visit to Shenyang just before Park was indicted back in Seoul.
WICKMAN