(SBU) GOVERNMENT HOUSING STIMULUS PLANS FOCUSED ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000064 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, DAS DAVIES TREASURY FOR AMB HOLMER/WRIGHT/TSMITH TREASURY FOR OASIA/INA -- DOHNER/HAARSAGER/WINSHIP/CUSHMAN TREASURY FOR IMFP -- SOBEL/MOGHTADER USDOC FOR ITA DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, MAC/OCEA NSC FOR WILDER/LOI STATE PASS CEA FOR BLOCK STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD/WINTER/MCCARTIN/KATZ/MAIN STATE PASS CFTC FOR OIA/GORLICK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CH ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PREL SUBJECT: (SBU) GOVERNMENT HOUSING STIMULUS PLANS FOCUSED ON LOW-INCOME FAMILIES REF: 08 SHANGHAI 558 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Chinese government plans to expand subsidized housing have been designed to limit the benefits to property developers, according to a new contact who works with one of China's main real estate market indexes -- in fact, the government is not opposed to housing prices falling farther. The government is focused on steering benefits to low-income families, and also hopes to provide jobs for migrant construction workers. Local governments and private investors will join the Central Government in funding the program, and individuals will kick in money from employee savings plans, said our contact. The contact offered a pessimistic outlook for the real estate sector, saying the downturn could last for three years. The contact also provided some details on reports real estate web portal Soufun.com will send a group of potential property investors to the United States. End summary. ¶2. (U) This is a second in a series of Shanghai cables on the real estate market in East China. ============================ Poor Families to Benefit from Housing Stimulus ============================ ¶3. (SBU) Chinese government plans to expand low-income housing have been designed to limit the benefits to property developers, according to Sheng Cheng, vice director of the China Real Estate Index System. (Note: The Central Government, as part of the overall economic stimulus plan rolled out on October 9, said China will spend RMB900 billion (approximately US$132 billion) on low-income housing during 2009-11, providing homes for 7.5 million families. End note.) Speaking with Econoff on February 3, 2009, Sheng repeatedly emphasized that, based on his understanding from top-level meetings in Beijing, the low-income housing plan would allow property developers a return of just 2 percent to 4 percent, far lower than the strong double-digit returns they were used to during the property boom in recent years. Sheng said two key meetings have been held in Beijing to set the outline of the low-income housing plan, both of which he attended: the first on July 7, and the second in January. ¶4. (SBU) Property developers will continue to feel the squeeze of the current downturn, said Sheng, and should not expect government bailouts. Sheng said that the government is currently considering a way to force consolidation of smaller property developers with larger ones by seizing properties that have been on the market for eight months or more. Real estate trading volume is low because many developers are holding onto their property in hopes that prices will eventually rise, said Sheng, while developers like Vanke that lowered prices have quickly sold their units. The Central Government wants to see housing prices fall further, and would not be displeased to have an overall 30 percent fall, said Sheng. (See septel for further details on government studies of the impact of housing price contraction.) ¶5. (SBU) Most low-income housing will be provided in the suburbs, said Sheng. The Central Government's goal for cities such as Beijing and Shanghai is to have 40 percent of newly developed land go for low-income housing by the end of the housing stimulus plan in 2011. In addition, Sheng said, an estimated 20 million migrant workers have lost their jobs in the current downturn, many of whom are employed in construction-related jobs, so the government hopes that the low-income housing stimulus will provide new jobs for some. ============================ Stimulus Funding Coming from Multiple Sources ============================ SHANGHAI 00000064 002 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) While most Chinese press reports have focused on the plan to construct new low-income housing, Sheng said that the overall government plan has three parts: a) Subsidies for renters. This is for the poorest families, who cannot afford to own a home. b) Economic housing (literally, "guaranteed housing," baozhang fang),to be sold to persons with low incomes. The homes will not be permitted to be resold for five years. The funding will be one part from the central government, two parts from the local government, and one part bank loans. c) Price-controlled housing (xian jia fang). This refers to housing built on land sold to developers at a low price with the express purpose of keeping the cost of housing units down. These are then sold to low-income families. ¶7. (SBU) Sheng said that the full RMB900 billion cited for the low-income housing plan would not come from the Central Government. Local governments will contribute 10 percent of the proceeds of local land sales -- although Sheng admitted that this source would be minimal, as new construction starts remain low. Personal savings accounts -- which Sheng described as automatic deductions from paychecks that are reserved for retirement, education, or housing expenditures -- also account for part of the funding. And on November 9 the Central Government legalized real estate investment trusts (REITs) as another vehicle for channeling funds to the program, said Sheng. ¶8. (SBU) Separately, Sheng noted that the Ministry of Finance is planning to issue bonds on behalf of localities to help fund construction projects. He said that this is a controversial move, since localities had been banned from doing so after becoming heavily indebted, and therefore the program is only in a trial stage. Sheng said that the trials are not restricted to large cities, but are being carried out to some extent in most localities. ============================ The Housing Downturn Could Last Three Years ============================ ¶9. (SBU) Sheng said that he estimates the current housing market downturn is "L" shaped, not "V" shaped, and that he expects it to last for three years. The China Real Estate Index System (Zhongguo fangdichan zhishu) is the most complete series of real estate data available to Chinese leaders, said Sheng; the other is the National Bureau of Statistics' National Real Estate Climate Index (Guofang jingqi zhishu). The China Real Estate Index developed from cooperation between the State Council Development Research Center and the National Real Estate Association in the early 1990's. The current CEO, Mou Tianquan, is a returned overseas Chinese who worked at Dow Jones. Maintenance of the index is aided through the center's close cooperation with online real estate portal Soufun.com, which has offices in 100 cities and is based in Beijing (see reftel). (Comment: Sheng's conclusion that the current housing market is in a prolonged downturn probably were reflected in his remarks at the meetings he attended with Central Government officials, and would have been taken seriously, given the singular insights provided by the China Real Estate Index System. End comment.) ============================ Soufun Organizes U.S. Real Estate Buying Trip ============================ ¶10. (SBU) Sheng confirmed press reports that Soufun.com is pulling together a buying mission that will look for real estate investment opportunities in the United States. The idea was SHANGHAI 00000064 003 OF 003 generated by CEO Tian, who was a long-time U.S. resident, as a result of being repeatedly asked about the possibility by Chinese who heard about the bargain prices for stateside property. Sheng said that two types of investors will join the trip: those who want more information about real estate market trends, and those who have already decided to buy with an eye to retirement or providing a U.S. education for a child. More details will be announced at a press conference in Beijing on February 22, said Sheng. ============================ Comment ============================ ¶11. (SBU) Our contact appeared to hew closely to Central Government policies on restraining property developers while providing benefits to low-income families, but offered little insight on how effectively this could be implemented at a local level. Local governments are now used to substantial revenue streams from property sales, and will not be inclined to sell land at lower prices. In addition, property developers will most likely heavily lobby local governments for support during the downturn (see septel reporting),and will resist efforts by the Central Government to push property onto the market at lower prices through takeovers. CAMP