SOCIAL STABILITY IN JIANGSU: NANJING SCHOLARS OFFER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SHANGHAI 000050


STATE FOR EAP/CM, INR AND DRL
NSC FOR LOI, KUCHTA-HELBLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 1/29/2034
TAGS: PGOV ECON EINV ELAB PHUM CH
SUBJECT: SOCIAL STABILITY IN JIANGSU: NANJING SCHOLARS OFFER
DIFFERENT VIEWS

REF: A. (A) SHANGHAI 28

B. (B) CPP200901064560004

C. (C) BEIJING 186

D. (D) 08 BEIJING 750

E. (E) SHANGHAI 39

F. (F) 08 SHANGHAI 547

CLASSIFIED BY: MATTHEW D. MURRAY, ACTING POL/ECON CHIEF, US
CONSULATE SHANGHAI, DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


Summary
--------------


1. (C) Two prominent political scholars in Nanjing, Jiangsu's
provincial capital, offered different views on social stability
in Jiangsu, where migrant workers from the rural northern part
of the province may not be able to find jobs in developed
southern Jiangsu after the Lunar New Year. The scholars agreed
that Premier Wen Jiabao is taking much of the blame for China's
economic downturn, but they differed on the degree to which Wen
is facing political troubles. The 08 Charter did not have a
significant short-term impact in East China, they said, but one
scholar believes the Charter will be viewed as an important
development in the long run. End Summary.

Social Stability in Jiangsu
--------------


2. (C) Gu Su, professor of Philosophy and Law at Nanjing
University, and Lu Xiaobo, professor of Public Affairs at the
Hopkins-Nanjing Center for Chinese and American Studies, both
said Jiangsu Province potentially faces a social stability
problem because migrant workers from northern Jiangsu may become
dissatisfied if they are not able to return to jobs in the
southern part of the province after the Lunar New Year. Lu, a
native of Taizhou in northern Jiangsu, told Poloff Jiangsu
Province is unique in this regard because migrant worker sending
and receiving areas are in the same province. While provinces
such as neighboring Zhejiang can send migrants back to distant
homes in Central or Western China, local governments in Jiangsu
must provide aid to migrant workers in northern Jiangsu who have
lost their jobs in the southern part of the province (see also
Refs A and B).


3. (C) Limited available land in Jiangsu Province also will
create problems for localities trying to reabsorb returned
migrant workers into the rural sector (see Ref C). Given
current economic realities, Lu said, the Central Government's
Number One Document (NOD) will need to focus on rural
development for the sixth year in a row (Ref D) in order to
address the problem of unemployed migrant workers.


4. (C) Gu and Lu differed, however, on the potential for serious
social instability problems in the near- to medium-term. Lu
told Poloff that despite the economic challenges, he does not
foresee large-scale social problems in Jiangsu. On the other
hand, Gu was pessimistic, stating "something definitely will
happen." Jiangsu's urban areas, including Nanjing, are, like
Shanghai (Ref E),focusing particularly on unemployed university
students. Gu told Poloff there has been much discussion in the
academic community recently about the possibility of unhappy
university graduates "who can write," inspiring large numbers of
migrant workers to protest, which would be a disaster for the
leadership.

Nanjing's View of Central Government Leadership
-------------- --


5. (C) According to Gu, the perception in East China is that
Premier Wen Jiabao is under a lot of pressure from both
reformists and hardliners in the Party who are blaming him for
China's current economic slowdown. Gu said President Hu Jintao
is distancing himself from Wen, but at the same time, China's
economic policies (including the Scientific Development Concept)
are viewed domestically as originating from the "Hu-Wen team,"
so Hu cannot live without Wen. Increasingly, however, Gu said
provincial officials such as Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary
Yu Zhengsheng, Chongqing Municipal Party Secretary Bo Xilai, and
Guangdong Provincial Party Secretary Wang Yang are challenging
Wen on economic policies. Gu pointed out that a photo prior to
the Lunar New Year in the Shanghai media of Yu with migrant
workers was solely for the benefit of Wen. In reality, the
Shanghai Municipal Government will continue to pay more
attention to university graduate employment than to migrant
worker issues, Gu said.


6. (C) On the other hand, Lu downplayed any rift between Wen and
provincial leaders or the possibility that Wen is in political
trouble. According to Lu, Wen has been criticized, but any
conjecture that he would be replaced prior to the end of his
term is ridiculous. It is true that if the economic situation
worsens, there will be a growing perception that the Central
Government has mismanaged the situation, but the government's
basic economic policy still is not likely to change.

The "08 Charter" in Jiangsu
--------------


7. (C) In the context of economic challenges and political
leadership concerns, the Central Government is worried about the
"08 Charter" (Ref F),both scholars said. However, there was
little support for the Charter in Jiangsu. Lu told Poloff the
Charter's impact would be minimal and was not "too influential."
Gu, however, said the short-term impact might be small, but in
the long run, observers will look back and say the 08 Charter
was an important development.


8. (C) Gu claimed he had seen an earlier draft of the 08 Charter
that was "too violent" and too long, and he believes the final
"streamlined" version was more appropriate to China's current
socio-economic situation. Unfortunately, Gu said, few people in
Jiangsu signed the Charter. Gu, who also did not sign, offered
two reasons for the lack of support: (1) because many of the
province's activists left China after Tiananmen, and (2)
Jiangsu's provincial government is more effective at
distributing social and economic benefits than other provincial
governments.


CAMP