PARTY CHIEF TOUTS SHANGHAI'S ECONOMIC "TRANSFORMATION"

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000492 SENSITIVE SIPDIS TREASURY FOR OASIA/INA DOHNER/HAARSAGER/WINSHIP DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR USDOC PASS BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS USDOC FOR ITA DAS KASOFF, MELCHER, OCEA STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER, KATZ NSC FOR LOI MANILA FOR USADB E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV EFIN SENV PHUM SOCI CH SUBJECT: PARTY CHIEF TOUTS SHANGHAI'S ECONOMIC "TRANSFORMATION" DESPITE HOUSING, EMPLOYMENT WORRIES REF: A. (A) SHANGHAI 25 ¶B. (B) SHANGHAI 148 ¶C. (C) SHANGHAI 267 (U) This cable is sensitive but unclassified and for official use only. Not for distribution outside of USG channels or via the internet. SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Shanghai Communist Party Secretary Yu Zhengsheng announced to a December 5-6 meeting of senior municipal officials that Shanghai would "lead the transformation of China's economic development model" in the coming year. Yu's statements appear to reassure local officials of Central Government support for Shanghai's development agenda in advance of the municipality's upcoming annual People's Congress and Political Consultative Conference sessions in January (Ref A), at which rapidly rising housing prices -- a strongly felt side effect of the city's growth -- and chronic concerns over employment for young people entering the workforce will likely feature prominently on the agenda. End Summary. PARTY SECRETARY: SHANGHAI TO LEAD CHINA'S CHARGE -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) During a two-day meeting held by the Communist Party of China Shanghai Standing Committee on December 5-6, Municipal Party Secretary Yu Zhengsheng said Shanghai would "lead the transformation of China's economic development model." According to Yu, changing Shanghai's development model is an "important historical task" assigned by the Central Government. Rapid economic development, however, should not sacrifice the city's environment and resources, he added. Yu urged government officials to consider the development model change as a strategic task and to alter their mindsets and work styles accordingly to achieve the goal of sustainable development. ¶3. (SBU) Yu said Shanghai can only achieve sustainable development through further reform and opening-up, improving people's livelihoods, and innovation. Key areas for reform and innovation include: 1) building an evaluation system for economic development; 2) deepening SOE reform and promoting property rights reform; 3) deepening housing reform and establishing a comprehensive housing security system; 4) doing further research on and developing methods to support the development of private enterprises and small and medium size enterprises; 5) further promoting science and technology innovation and high-tech industrialization; 6) promoting new countryside building; 7) paying attention to the "floating population" of rural migrant working in Shanghai and improving public services; and 8) promoting reform of government administration. MESSAGE TO THE WEST -------------- SHANGHAI 00000492 002 OF 003 ¶4. (SBU) Party Secretary Yu reportedly told visiting Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper December 5 that Shanghai is making efforts to change its economic development model in the face of growing environmental and resource pressures. According to an article in the Wenhui Bao, a local Communist Party-controlled newspaper, Yu told Harper that Shanghai should open up further and learn from countries like Canada through cooperation and communication in order to realize Shanghai's "sound and fast" (you hao you kuai) development. Yu said he appreciated Canada's participation in the Shanghai 2010 World Expo, which he said would showcase sustainable development through its "Better City, Better Life" slogan (Refs B and C). FEARS OVER HOUSING COSTS ACCOMPANYING "TRANSFORMATION" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) District-level officials in Shanghai say their policies are in line with Party Secretary Yu's emphasis on sustainable development. An official of the Jiading District Foreign Economic Commission told PolOff December 17 Jiading is focused on economic transformation and environmental protection and has stopped allowing high-pollution industries from establishing factories in the district, which is located in northwestern Shanghai on the border with Jiangsu Province. Jiading will benefit from the opening of a new subway line which will connect the center of the district to downtown Shanghai. The Jiading subway stop will be at the center of a "new city" where 800,000 to one million people will live and work in an energy efficient environment, Liu said. ¶6. (SBU) Shanghai, however, faces a significant challenge with rising housing prices, highlighting housing as a major issue to address in 2010. In Jiading, the district official raised concerns that attractive new developments, more convenient mass transit, and additional investments will force housing prices upward in the coming year even when apartment costs "already are high." Municipal Party Secretary Yu's pledge to address worries about housing foreshadowed subsequent moves from the Central Government to tamp down property speculation and increase the supply of affordable housing. In the days following Yu's remarks, the Central Government announced an end to a preferential business tax on property sales and a building program for low- and middle-income housing. Several local media outlets have highlighted Yu's "deepening housing reform" message, as well as a briefing by Premier Wen Jiabao on the national property market following the announcement of measures to deal with galloping real estate prices. ¶7. (SBU) In some ways, the spotlight is on Shanghai as a prime example of real estate developers pricing housing out of the reach of ordinary families. The setting of the popular, but now banned, TV series, "Snail House" (Wo Ju, which also has the English name "Dwelling Narrowness") is modeled on Shanghai -- the series depicts "house slaves" struggling to pay surging mortgage costs. The Shanghai Audit Bureau reported in August that Shanghai had at that time fulfilled less than 25 percent of its affordable housing construction goals for the year. In response, the Shanghai Municipal Government is starting to roll out measures, including a December 10 announcement of a trial SHANGHAI 00000492 003 OF 003 project to construct "economic" or "subsidized" housing. EMPLOYMENT STILL A TOP CONCERN, TOO -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Housing will not be the only socioeconomic concern at the "Two Meetings" as the hot topic of the 2009 legislative session (Ref A) -- employment for graduates -- remains a serious problem. A December 18 front page story in the Wenhui Bao reported on the employment problem, noting that Shanghai would graduate 10,000 more high school and university students in 2010 than a year ago, adding pressure to the tight job market. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) As Shanghai prepares for the coming year and the Shanghai 2010 World Expo, municipal government leaders are emphasizing the importance of economic "transformation." Yu's fairly assertive comments about Shanghai's leading role, which were covered widely in local Chinese media but not in the English language press -- seem designed to reassure local officials that the Central leadership -- to which Yu, a Politburo member, technically belongs -- will support the municipality's development plans. The annual "Two Meetings" of the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress and Shanghai Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in January will most likely endorse an ambitious development agenda that, while more oriented toward environmental sustainability, could exacerbate existing challenges such as rising housing prices and youth employment. CAMP